The “under” play in Week 11 of the NFL regular season had a slight 8-6 advantage, but over the past five weeks the oddsmakers have been dead on with 34 games going “over,” 33 games staying under and two games ending in a “push”. I posted a 2-1 record for the week on my top three picks to improve to13-9-1 over the past eight weeks and to16-13-1 for the year. With all 32 teams back in action, I have been digging deep into this week’s matchups to try and unearth the value in the total line.
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Each week of the NFL regular season, my goal is to find some golden opportunities to cash in on a few bad lines when it comes to the NFL totals line. The following are my top three NFL picks for this week in the NFL with lines provided by BetOnline.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 43.5
Tennessee stunned Miami last Sunday with 37 points in its second-highest scoring output of the season, but 20 points could be directly attributed to turnovers, including an interception return for a touchdown. Overall, the Titans are still averaging just 21.9 points a game, which is ranked 18th in the league.
Jacksonville head coach Mike Mularkey has decided to stick with Chad Henne as his starting quarterback for this game over Blaine Gabbert based on his performance last week against Houston. The Jaguars rolled up 37 points in the overtime loss to the Texans but remain one of the most anemic offenses in the league with an average of 16.4 points a game.
Game Betting Trends
The total line for this game has remained unchanged since opening at 43.5, which I believe to be high given the current form of both team’s offense. The past trends in this matchup point to this as well, with the total staying under in four of the last five meetings in Jacksonville and in four of the last five games overall.
Game Prediction: UNDER 43.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 49
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan threw five interceptions last week, and his team still found a way to score 23 points in a win over Arizona. The Falcons have actually scored 23 points or more in nine of their first 10 games and are ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring with an average of 27 points a game.
Tampa Bay has reeled off four straight victories while averaging 34.8 points a game over the same span. This suddenly-explosive offense has found a running game with rookie Doug Martin and a passing game with a revitalized Josh Freeman, who has thrown for 2,505 yards and 21 touchdowns this season.
Game Betting Trends
The line for this game opened at 48.5 and has crept up to 49 on BetOnline’s latest board, but I still think that is too low for this matchup. Both teams know how to put points on the board, as evidenced by the total going over in the Falcons last five games against the NFC South and in the Buccaneers last seven games overall. It has also gone over in three of the last four meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: OVER 49
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants (8:20 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 49.5
There is little doubt that the “Pack is Back” after stringing together five straight wins in which the offense has put up an average of 30.2 points a game. This total is even slightly higher in Green Bay’s last four games on the road. Aaron Rodgers has also returned to his MVP form with 17 touchdowns passes verse two interceptions during this incredible run.
New York has had an extra week off to try and correct some of the problems that have plagued this team in its last two games. With a prime-time player such as Eli Manning playing at home under the national spotlight of “Sunday Night Football,” look for this Giants offense to return to the form that generated an average of 30.8 points during a previous four-game winning streak.
Game Betting Trends
The total opened at 49.5 and has held steady ever since. Weather for Sunday night’s game should not be a factor so both offenses will be playing on a fast track. The total has gone over in 11 of the Packers last 15 games against the NFC and in five of the Giants last seven games following a straight up loss. It has also gone over in the last five meetings between the two.
Game Prediction: OVER 49.5
YTD Record: 16-13-1
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