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2015 Super Bowl Predictions
by - 2/5/2014

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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

As I write this we are almost exactly 48 hours past the final whistle of the Super Bowl. That means we have had some time to digest what happened, though it will take more time to make sense of it. With the game in the rearview mirror, there is, of course, just one thing left to do — look ahead to next year. There is, as always, a ridiculous amount of change coming — position coaches shifting, free agency, the draft, mini-camps, training camp, the preseason — and that’s all just to get us to the regular season. It’s painfully early, but futures odds are posted, so it’s never too early to be on the lookout for value. (all odds to win the 2015 Super Bowl are from Bovada):

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Seattle Seahawks (5/1): We haven’t seen a team repeat as champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005, so the Seahawks have their work cut out for them. They also have the potential for issues with egos after such a dominating win, and there could be some personnel changes as well. They also play in a brutally tough division in by far the toughest conference. Add it all up and, though I have no issue with them being favored, I just don’t see any value here at all.

San Francisco 49ers (7/1): They have been the team I have picked the last two years, and at this price I would consider them again. They are going to learn from the setback this year, and they have the opportunity to address some needs in the offseason and get healthier. They have exceptional coaching, strong talent on both sides of the ball, and room to grow. They face the same brutal division Seattle does, but they will be a major factor in it.

Denver Broncos (10/1): I was skeptical about the Broncos all year, and that Super Bowl performance certainly didn’t change that. They just plain weren’t good enough on Sunday, and I don’t see how they can change that in a hurry. It’s too easy to make fun of Manning right now, but I just don’t see how he can be trusted in the postseason — not at these odds.

New England Patriots (10/1): You can never rule out the Patriots. They just need to get a whole lot better in the offseason than they were this year, though. They overachieved in a big way this year, and they can’t rely on that. I reserve judgment on these guys until we see how they handle the offseason. It is far more important to them than any other contender.

Green Bay Packers (14/1): I just can’t get too excited about this team. There aren’t necessarily glaring concerns, but I just struggle to believe that they are good enough on either side of the ball right now to be a legitimate threat. A healthy Aaron Rodgers would obviously improve their fate, but still I suspect that this price is far too low — at least for my taste.

Carolina Panthers (20/1): I love this price. The Panthers took a massive step forward this year, and I don’t think that they have come close to peaking. They remind me of San Francisco two years ago. They have a strong defense, skill players on offense, and an excellent and improving quarterback. They are also very well-coached. This year they started slow before really shifting into gear. If they can get on task earlier then they have a chance to really be a force in what is shaping up to be a brutally-tough NFC.

New Orleans Saints (20/1): What’s that sound you hear? I think it is the window closing for this team. Their core isn’t getting any younger, and they showed this year that they just weren’t quite good enough as they are now to be a major contender. They will still be a solid team, but compared to their divisional rivals from Carolina there is absolutely no value at this price. If they were a stock I would be shorting them like crazy.

The rest of the pack:

Indianapolis Colts (20/1)
Atlanta Falcons (25/1)
Chicago Bears (25/1)
Kansas City Chiefs (25/1)
Philadelphia Eagles (25/1)
Arizona Cardinals (33/1)
Cincinnati Bengals (33/1)
Dallas Cowboys (33/1)
Detroit Lions (33/1)
Houston Texans (33/1)
New York Giants (33/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers (33/1)
San Diego Chargers (33/1)
Baltimore Ravens (40/1)
St. Louis Rams (40/1)
Miami Dolphins (50/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50/1)
Washington Redskins (50/1)
Cleveland Browns (66/1)
New York Jets (66/1)
Tennessee Titans (66/1)
Minnesota Vikings (75/1)
Buffalo Bills (100/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (100/1)
Oakland Raiders (100/1)

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