Click Here for 2009 Super Bowl 43 information including Super Bowl Betting Odds, Super Bowl Picks, and Super Bowl Squares

The big game is still about 10 days away, but I'm getting tired of constantly thinking about it, analyzing it, and picking sides. It's time, then, for me to put my Super Bowl predictions down on paper. A lot can happen between now and kickoff, so what I think now can certainly change. At this point, though, this is my best guess at how things are going to turn out.

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The Game

There are going to be a lot of factors at play in this game, but the most obvious, and perhaps the most significant, is the Pittsburgh defense against the Arizona offense. It's well documented - Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league, and particularly shines against the pass where they are top ranked. Arizona has the second best passing offense in the league, and they are firing on all cylinders in the playoffs. Both teams have ridden those strengths to get this far, but only one can keep riding it.

Pittsburgh is facing the best pass offense they have seen this year. They have had experience against top aerial attacks this year, though. They played four of the top eight passing teams in the league in the regular season, and played San Diego again in the playoffs. The results are mixed, but mostly positive. In all four regular season games the offenses were held below their season passing averages. The five quarterbacks who played in those four games threw five touchdowns and six interceptions, and those numbers were boosted by Peyton Manning's three-TD performance. In short, the pass defense was not intimidated by good passing attacks. The playoff game against the Chargers was a different story entirely. Philip Rivers completed 60 percent of his passes, threw for 308 yards, and tossed three touchdowns against one pick. That was proof that the passing defense isn't perfect.

The other matchup isn't getting the attention, but it's almost as compelling. Pittsburgh's offense is generally mediocre. Arizona's defense is, too. The difference is that Pittsburgh hasn't particularly elevated their offensive game in the playoffs, while Arizona is playing a much tougher brand of defense in the playoffs than we expected them to. They have been particularly strong against the run.

So here's what it all boils down to. I think that there is at least a chance, and I think a pretty good one, that Kurt Warner will have a solid day. At worst, the Steelers defense will neutralize the Arizona offense. That will leave it to the other units to decide the game. Neither the Cardinals defense nor the Pittsburgh offense is easy to trust, but I definitely like the recent Arizona form better. I'm not saying that Big Ben can't lead his team to a win. I'm just saying that I don't like his chances of leading an offensive explosion. I also like Arizona's chances of scoring some points. Seven pints is a lot to give up - too many for Pittsburgh. That makes Arizona and the points my pick.

The Total

My first instinct was to take the under. This is the most public game there is, and the public loves the over, so it's almost certain that this number is inflated. That gives the under more value than it might normally have. But then I looked at the Arizona - Philadelphia game. The Eagles have a very good defense, but the Cardinals were able to open the game up and make it reasonably offensive. The number was 47, the same as it opened in the Super Bowl, and the game went over by 10 points. Arizona went over in five of their last six games in the regular season, and two of their three playoff games. In the one game that went under they still scored 46 combined points. Arizona points to the over.

Pittsburgh is another story. They have gone over in three of their last four games, but the highest number they have faced in that time is 37.5. The highest number they have faced all year is 44.5. Still, they have the ability to score points when they need to, and I think Arizona will score, too. That puts me on the side of the public - the over.

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Super Bowl Props

It's too early to really be spending a ton of time looking at the props, and a good chunk of the props haven't been set yet. There are a couple of props that are available now that are interesting, though.

Will Edgerrin James score a TD? James has had a solid playoff run, but he has just one touchdown in three games. Given how good Pittsburgh is against the run, it's not likely that he will have his best game here. I'd take the no on this prop, except for the price. The yes is at +300. His chances of scoring are better than that, so there is some value here.

Who will throw more TD passes? Warner threw for 30 regular season touchdowns. Roethlisberger had 17. Warner has eight postseason touchdowns. Roethlisberger has two. Despite all that, Warner is the underdog here at even money. That sounds like a solid deal to me.