It’s amazing how much things can change in the NFL - even when games aren’t being played. Back in February I wrote an article looking at my Super Bowl predictions for the upcoming season. Since then we’ve seen the NFL Draft, free agency, more trades than we are used to, some injuries, a couple of holdouts, a few suspensions, and all sorts of other changes. Looking back now there are a lot of things that I still stand behind, but some that just don’t make any sense anymore. This is a good time, then, to revisit the predictions and adjust them as needed based on what has happened in the last six months. (All odds are from 5Dimes)

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The Lost Causes

There are lots of examples you can pull out - including the Saints last year - to support the argument that virtually any team can rise up to monstrous heights if everything falls into  place for them. Still, there were seven teams I was willing to completely write off in February, and that hasn’t changed since. The Rams (+25000) are the longest shot on the board. Back then it looked like they would draft Ndamukong Suh. Sam Bradford is an even better choice, but he’s still a couple of years and a few pieces away from success. The Lions (+14500) are moving in the right direction, but it’s a long, slow trip. The same goes for the Raiders (+11500). I’m not at all bullish on the Chiefs (+15000) even though it seems cool to be. The Bucs (+20000) are younger than a preschool class, and will need a couple more years before they scare anyone. The Bills (+21500) are a bad joke. Eric Mangini is still a gigantic moron, so even the best quarterbacking he has had in years won’t help him out with the Browns (+23000).

The Underwhelming Teams

When last we visited these predictions there were nine teams in this group. They all still belong, and they have some new company as well. Seattle (+9000) does absolutely nothing for me, and I wouldn’t complain if someone tried to move them to the lost causes. Jacksonville (+11500) was better on paper last year than they are this year, and that didn’t turn out very well for them back then. Washington (+4500) is at least a year away from relevance - especially if Mike Shanahan can’t move past this ridiculous spat with Albert Haynesworth. Carolina (+10000) has a couple of interesting things going for them - like a QB who could be better than people think - but John Fox already has one foot out the door, and that can’t help but be a distraction. I don’t buy the Bears (+6000) as a serious contender because I don’t buy Jay Cutler as a serious quarterback. Arizona (+7000) could be in the mix in their division, and they have the best receiver in football, but they have lost some very important pieces, and change is going to be painful no matter what. Atlanta (+3000) may be okay and may not, but I find them so boring and dull that I just don’t care either way. Some people are high on Cincinnati (+3400), but I am certainly not one of them. Marvin Lewis is the worst coach in all of football, and he hasn’t built a team that is good enough to go all the way - or to overcome all of the inevitable distractions that will surround them. The Giants (+3000) just aren’t very good, and the preseason has shown us how fragile and lacking in depth their quarterbacking situation is. To those nine teams I add two more that were listed as sleepers last time for reasons I can’t remember or no longer understand. I seemed to think back then that Denver (+12500) was poised t sneak up on some teams. They aren’t. I also don’t think that Tennessee (+4000) has done enough to build on the momentum of their strong finish last year.

The Overrated

There were seven teams in this group. There still are, but two teams have traded places - Indianapolis moves into the realm of the serious contenders, while New England drops down to this level. Houston (+3600) is viewed by some as ready to break through, but that’s what people say every year and it never happens, so pardon my skepticism. Baltimore (+1150) is a team I like in a lot of ways, but their age on defense makes me feel like this price is too low. The Jets (+1400) have a quarterback I don’t believe in and about a million egos about to explode. The Eagles (+4000) won’t miss McNabb, but still aren’t good enough to seriously contend. The Vikings (+1300) have an ancient guy with a God complex at the helm of a suddenly fragile offense. What could possibly go wrong? In Favre I do not trust this year. The Saints (+1000) have impressed me in a lot of ways with how they have dealt with the pressure of their situation, but I still have to bet against them based on what past Super Bowl winners - and more impressive all-round teams - have done in their circumstance. New England (+1100) has too many red flags waving in the wind on both sides of the ball to give me any confidence in them.

The Sleepers

I’ll keep this one brief. Back then I thought that Miami (+4000) and San Francisco (+3000) were poised to make some noise. I think that even more now.

The Serious Contenders

Indianapolis got moved into this group, and I may even have been tempted to pick them since they play in what I think is a very vulnerable AFC this year if the price were just a bit better than +875. Pittsburgh (+2500) has obvious issues, but their defense is ready to be very good, and between Leftwich and Dixon I expect them to get at least decent QB play when they need it. Backing any Norv Turner team makes me nervous, and I think that San Diego is seriously lacking in value at +1075, but their division is so wide open for them to exploit this year that I can’t rule them out. Dallas has the home field at the Super Bowl to play for, and they seem as ready as they have ever been to play well this year. At +1500 or so they would be my Super Bowl pick. At their current +1025 they lack value.

The Pick

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Back in February I endorsed the Packers at +1300 as my choice. I still do, though I am more nervous about it now. I wish I believed in the defense more than I do, but Aaron Rodgers has been extremely impressive this summer, and seems ready for really big things.