I’ll be honest — I did not predict that the New York Giants would be playing in the Super Bowl. Not even close. The 49ers were my team from the start, and the fact that they aren’t there is a clear lesson in how brutal and hard to handicap the NFL can be — ultimately I was wrong because San Francisco’s backup punt returner wasn’t good enough.

As you can tell, I’m still pouting a little bit. It’s made worse by the fact that Eli Manning is a long way from being my favorite player.

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Still, there is no point in living in the past. It’s time to look ahead to the biggest spectacle in pro sports. In less than two weeks the Giants and the Patriots will meet in Indianapolis to determine what team will be the last standing in the NFL for this year. That means that I need to make some 2012 Super Bowl predictions. Here are six predictions I feel pretty good about:

Tom Brady is going to rebound well

He has done it many times before, but on Sunday Brady did not single-handedly lead his team to victory. In fact, he didn’t play that well at all. It was his worst game of the year by a wide margin according to the QB rating, and his 239 yards was his third lowest of his impressive season, while his 6.64 yards per attempt were second worst of the year.

He probably can’t play like that again and wind up hoisting the ugliest trophy in pro sports. I don’t expect he will.

In his 17 starts before last weekend he posted a QB rating in the double digits just four times. In the games following those four underwhelming performances he posted 10 touchdowns and just one interception while posting an average QB rating of 108.5.

In other words, he bounces back well.

One of those rebounds came after the bye week, so we know he can use the extra week to his advantage. Plus, he has seen this New York team before this year so he knows what to expect.

All in all, the signs point to a much better Brady performance than we last saw.

Eli Manning will be running for his life

We’ve seen a pretty straightforward lesson play out in these playoffs. Against Atlanta and especially Green Bay Manning had all the time in the world to stand in the pocket and look for targets. He was ruthlessly effective and precise. The Niners had Manning on the run every time he held onto the ball for even a second, and Manning was far less effective as a result.

It only makes sense, then, that the Patriots will be looking to make Eli as uncomfortable as they can as often as they can.

The Patriots don’t get a lot of credit as a pass rushing team, but they managed just two fewer sacks all year than the Niners, so they are certainly competent. Their ability to harass Manning will be a major storyline affecting the outcome of this game.
 
Peyton’s legacy will be secure

I’ve written my share of stupid things over the last several years. Never once, though, have I written anything as stupid as the articles that are all over the place right now that are questioning whether Eli is actually the best Manning brother.

Ridiculous.

There is nothing that Eli could do in this game — or any other — to make it even a fair fight. Peyton doesn’t have to worry in this one, though — Manning has followed every double-digit QB rating game with at least one more this season, and he is coming of an 82.3 in his last game.

I expect Eli to struggle under the weight of expectations and play by far the second best game of the quarterbacks.

The Patriots will win the Super Bowl

All the way along I have been predicting that the NFC would win the Super Bowl. My reasoning was that the best three teams in the league were in that conference. As fate would have it, all three teams are sitting at home hating life right now.

The fourth best team was, by a wide margin, the Patriots. That makes them the best team here.

The Giants have the hype and the momentum going for them, but New England has better talent, better depth, and the far better coach. They also have the burning desire for revenge after the last Super Bowl in which these teams clashed. New England will win.

The Patriots will cover the spread

Not only are they going to win, but they are going to win reasonably easily. The line opened at 3.5 but was quickly bet down to three in most spots.

At a field goal I will happily take the Patriots.

They are a more creative team, and the New England tight ends are perfectly designed to exploit the issues that the Giants have had on defense.

The line is going to be kept in check partly because the Giants won in Foxboro on Nov. 6, but I’m not overly impressed by that. New England hasn’t lost since, and the Giants were far from dominant in that last-second win.

It seems very strange to me that the Patriots and Tom Brady aren’t getting enough respect, and I don’t think they are here. At the very least, this line is more than fair and New England is attractive in my eyes.

Take the ‘under’

This one is basically a reflex. The public loves the ‘over’, so in the most public betting game of the year the over is almost certain to be inflated. The number has been climbing early as you would expect given the Super Bowl public betting trends.

That doesn’t mean I blindly and automatically bet the under, but I have to have a good reason to bet the over in a game like this.

I don’t have one.

I don’t trust Manning and the Giants, and I don’t think the secondary for the Patriots is getting the credit they deserve in the second half. This is a lot of points (55 as I write this), and given the pressure of this game I’m not betting they’ll score enough.

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