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2011 Super Bowl Predictions
by T.O. Whenham - 2/10/2010
The Super Bowl has been over for two days now, so it is definitely time for us to start looking towards next year. The odds are posted, so there's no reason for us not to make a bold pick or two. We need to recognize, of course, that this is a practically impossible task. Anyone who told at that they picked the Saints at this point last year is either lying or crazy. (all odds are from 5Dimes)
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The lost causes - New Orleans obviously showed us that teams can come from virtually nowhere to win it all. That being said, I am quite comfortable ruling out several teams. The Saints weren't an obvious choice, but they did have a potent offense in place, and they had hired a top defensive coordinator to address their biggest issue. At this point in the season there are several teams that just don't look like they have the same kind of base to build upon. I won't lose any sleep by counting out the Rams (+20000) because Nkamudong Suh isn't a miracle worker, the Lions (+20000) because they are still the Lions, the Bucs (+17500) because they have too far left to climb even though they are doing some good things, the Raiders (+15000) because I'll never trust them as long as JaMarcus Russell still has a job, Kansas City (+15000) because they have far to many holes to fill in just one year, the Browns (+13500) because Eric Mangini is a moron, and the Bills (+12500) because they don't have a solution at quarterback and I really don't like their coaching situation.
The underwhelming teams - This group includes the teams that have something going for them, but which I am not optimistic about. Seattle (+8000) needs to solve their QB situation before they accomplish anything meaningful. Jacksonville (+6600) has some nice pieces, but I still don't think they have enough under the hood to go all the way. Washington (+6000) is at least a year away with a coaching change and a QB situation that still isn't ideal. Carolina (+4500) has QB issues as well. The Bears (+4000) still have Jay Cutler at QB, and I don't believe that even Mike Martz can turn him into a top QB in one year. Arizona (+3500) has some nice players, but I have absolutely no faith in Matt Leinart. Atlanta (+3300) has several pieces that make you think they should be better than they are, but something was clearly missing last year, and I'm willing to bet that they won't find it this year. Cincinnati (+2500) played over their head last year, and I doubt they will ever reach their capacity until they get rid of Marvin Lewis. The Giants (+2400) have Eli Manning. I know that they overcame that once, but lightning can't strike twice.
The overrated - These are the teams that are just getting too much love. Houston (+3500) looks like they should be poised to break through, but they have looked like that for years, and they never do. Baltimore (+2000) is well coached and set up for the future at QB, but they are ready for a step back defensively until they can replace their aging core. The Jets (+1800) still have Mark Sanchez, and he was a long, long way from a competent QB this year. The Eagles (+1700) have too many quarterbacks, and got a rough reminder down the stretch that they aren't a top-level team in their current configuration. The Vikings (+1300) will either have an ancient QB or a new one, and neither scenario justifies this price. I don't want to rain on the Saints' (+750) parade so soon, but they have a stunning number of free agents, and I'm not convinced that they could ride that defense all the way two years in a row. I expect them to be good, but not as good as this price suggests. The same goes for Indianapolis (+750). They have free agency issues, and need to restock at several situations. They managed to make it to the Super Bowl without playing any of the seeming top teams in the AFC, and I have little faith that they can get that lucky two years in a row. Not worth the price.
The sleepers - This is where New Orleans would have fallen last year - the teams that have some obvious strengths, and are making moves to continue improving. Denver (+5000) faded badly last year, but the offense will be better with another year under the belt, and bold, quick moves were made to get the defense on a better track. McDaniels is the real deal. San Francisco (+4250) is a team I have liked for a long time. They should have a stable QB situation with Alex Smith from the outset, and there are a whole lot of nice pieces on both sides of the ball. Miami (+3500) has a gem at quarterback, and a great front office making decisions for them. Tennessee (+2700) closed so strong last year, and they have the most exciting player in the league to build around.
The serious contenders - Pittsburgh (+1100) had a rough year last year, but they have too much talent on and off the field for that to last for too long. They'll be back among the elite this year. New England (+1100) has to find a way to outrun age on both sides of the ball, but they still have talent to be a serious team. They also play in a division that will continue to allow them to be a contender. San Diego (+975) under Norv Turner frustrates me more than any team in the league, but you just can't rule them out with their depth. Hopefully they get the memo this year that the season starts in September and doesn't end in December. Dallas (+1200) still has a lot of work to do as their playoff debacle showed, but they are moving in the right direction, and there is a lot to like about them.
After you finish this feature be sure to view Doc's NFL Division Winners page. If you plan on betting NFL you'll also want to read our Eliminator Pool page. When it comes to betting NFL our NFL Season Win Total Predictions feature is a must for any NFL fan. For 35+ years the team at Doc's Sports Service has provided and insight on NFL handicapping.
The pick - Green Bay (+1300). I picked the Packers coming out of training camp last year and that didn't go great for me, but I expect them to be improved this year. The defense was a problem at the start of the season, but it got better as the year progressed, and it will get better this offseason. More importantly, they need to find a way to protect Aaron Rodgers so that he doesn't have to run for his life on every play. Still, given his play and continued improvement, and the players they have, the Packers represent the best balance of potential to win and value for the money.
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