MGM became the first sportsbook to post NFL season win totals on Tuesday, so they certainly didn’t waste any time after the lockout. It’s tougher than normal to look at these numbers right after they come out because we don’t know what the free agent picture is going to look like and we haven’t seen how rookies are performing in mini-camps. I’m not going to let that bother me, though. Here, fearlessly, are my NFL season win total predictions for 2011:
NFC
North
Chicago (9.5) - Jay Cutler is still in town, and he won’t have an easy time of things with the fans after the playoff debacle last year. The Packers are still good and the Lions are improved, so the division will be tough. This number is tight, but I lean to the ‘under’.
Detroit (7.5) - This team is going to be better. The question, though, is how much better they will be compared to their six-win season last year. The ‘under’ is favored right now, but I lean the other way. They finished strong last year with four straight wins, the defense is strong, and the offense should continue to improve.
Green Bay (11.5) - Everyone will be on the ‘over’ here, I suspect. My tendency is to bet on a Super Bowl hangover every year. In this case, though, I’m not so sure. They have a decent schedule, their QB is very good, and they have a talented, well-coached squad. This number is very tight, and I still lean ‘under,’ but not by a whole lot.
Minnesota (6.5) - It’s hard to know what they will do for sure, because there is still uncertainty about who will be taking snaps. With the Favre distractions out of town I am willing to take a bit of a gamble and assume that the QB situation will resolve itself. Word has it they may land Donovan McNabb later today. That means I am on the ‘over’.
East
Dallas (9) - Last year was a disaster, and I am not convinced that Tony Romo is the guy for this team in the long term. I like how aggressive they look like they are going to be to try to win, though. I had nine or 10 wins penciled in for these guys, so that makes the ‘over’ the place to look.
New York Giants (9.5) - Almost on principle I bet the ‘under’ every year when Eli Manning is involved. I just can’t help myself. That’s not the only reason I don’t like this team, but it’s enough.
Philadelphia (10) - I think the Michael Vick bandwagon is probably a bit too crowded, but someone has to shine in this conference, and the Eagles have the best chance of anyone. I’ll take the ‘over’.
Washington (6.5) - This team is a total mess. Their big QB gamble failed, and they are going to pay for that this year. I’ll happily go ‘under’.
South
Atlanta (10.5) - I am so bored by the Falcons that I almost forget that they exist. I don’t think they have built a team that can be a serious contender yet, but they are coming off a 13-win season, so it’s hard to be too pessimistic. I would like this number a whole lot more if it was 10, but I’ll cautiously take the ‘over’.
Carolina (4.5) - Neither one of their QBs is going to do anything of note this year, and there are problems all over the field. The first overall pick next year should help them, though. ‘Under’ for sure.
New Orleans (10) - This is exactly the number I had in my mind for this team, so I was hoping it wouldn’t be what was posted. I am more of a pessimist than an optimist given age and the competition in their division, so I lean to the ‘under’.
Tampa Bay (8.5) - This is a coin flip. On one hand I like the way the coaching staff is moving, and they are well set at QB. On the other hand, they aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year like they did last year. I lean ‘over’, but I don’t feel super confident about it.
West
Arizona (6) - I assume that Kevin Kolb will be the QB this year. I am not convinced that that is a good thing. There are all sorts of problems. ‘Under’.
San Francisco (8) - Every year I get excited about this team and enthusiastically take the ‘over’. Almost every year they disappoint me. I could learn from past mistakes, but where’s the fun in that? ‘Over’ — this year is the year.
Seattle (7) - Getting rid of Matt Hasselbeck will be a mistake, and Pete Carroll is going to continue to prove that he is only a genius when he has the best players in the country on his squad. This number is solid, but I’ll take the ‘under’.
St. Louis (7) - Sam Bradford is the real deal, and the organization is moving in the right direction. I really like the ‘over’ here, and I suspect that a lot of people will, too.
AFC
North
Baltimore (11) - I like the Ravens a lot, but John Harbaugh just seems angry, and they have made some surprising moves this offseason. They aren’t getting any younger, either. I think they could get 11 wins, but it will be tough for them to get more than that. That means I am on the ‘under’.
Cincinnati (7.5) - If you have read anything I have ever written about the NFL, then you know the one opinion I hold above all others — Marvin Lewis is the worst coach at any level of football. Truly terrible. He still has a job, and he doesn’t have a proven QB, so I am certainly on the ‘under’.
Cleveland (6.5) - I suppose they are moving in the right direction -- they got rid of their moron of a head coach -- but they have a whole lot of work to do before they are respectable. Colt McCoy has promise, but he needs to improve, and he doesn’t have as much to work with as would be ideal. ‘Under’.
Pittsburgh (11) - This number is solid, so it’s hard to be excited about either side. I don’t like the division much, though, so I’ll take the ‘over’.
East
Buffalo (5) - There isn’t a team in the league that deserves a break more than the Bills. They may not get one, but I’ll direct good karma their way. ‘Over’.
Miami (8) - As a big Michigan guy I am still loyal to Chad Henne, and I still think he has a bright future ahead of him. He has some nice pieces to work with on both sides of the ball, and I’m an optimist. ‘Over’.
New England (11.5) - Every time I think that the Pats are going to take a step back they find another way to be dominant — in the regular season, at least. I am not totally confident in this squad this year, but they won 14 last year and the division isn’t going to be quite as strong as last year, so the ‘over’ is probably the side to be on.
New York Jets (10) – ‘Under’. I continue to be unimpressed with Mark Sanchez, and I am not convinced that Rex Ryan can continue to keep things on track. This could be a disappointing year for this squad.
South
Houston (8) - Sooner or later the Texans are going to get their act together and actually live up to their potential. This could at least theoretically be the year — they certainly can’t be any worse defensively than they were last year. I’d hate to be left behind when they do finally turn it around, so the ‘over’ looks strong to me.
Indianapolis (10) – ‘Under’. I am pessimistic about Peyton Manning this year given the health issues he comes into the season with, and there are more problems on this squad than I would like.
Jacksonville (6) - Wow, is it ever hard to care about this team. They are almost invisible. I don’t love their division, though, so if they can figure out what they are going to do at QB then they could be solid. That means I am unenthusiastically on the ‘over’.
Tennessee (6.5) - Way ‘under’. The QB situation is a mess and I’m not sure if Matt Hasselbeck is the answer. The running game won’t be as good as last year. They have defensive issues. I really don’t like this team.
West
Denver (6) - Last year was a really big disappointment from these guys. They have all sorts of issues, and their coaching staff could be more stable, but I can’t help but be reasonably optimistic about them at this number. I’m on the ‘over’.
Kansas City (8) - I don’t think they are making big strides forward, and I don’t think that the change in offensive coordinators is going to be positive. I don’t see them winning more games than this, so I have to be on the ‘under’.
Oakland (7) - Lousy team run poorly. Very tough to be anything but pessimistic about this lousy team. I guess that means I am on the ‘under’.
San Diego (10) - The Chargers are incredibly frustrating, but they have some obvious talent and they could certainly be in a tougher division. ‘Over’.
Bovada Sportsbook •
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