Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Rushing Yards
by David Schwab - 7/11/2013
To get you ready for the 2013 NFL season BetOnline has recently released its prop bet odds for a number of different categories. After taking a look at the top players who will be throwing and catching the ball this season, Top Props decided to focus-in on the odds for which NFL player will rush for the most yards in 2013.
The studs with the best odds have made their way to the top of this list as favorites and contenders but there is always some solid value to be found if you dig a bit deeper into the list looking for the longshot that has a legitimate shot at winning the 2013 NFL rushing title.
It was all about the comeback kid in 2012. Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson came painfully close to rushing his way into the record books after completely blowing-out his knee the season before. He became the first back since Chris Johnson in 2009 to rush for over 2,000 yards. His final total of 2,097 yards was just nine yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s NFL single-season rushing record set in 1984.
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Peterson has been opened as a +350 favorite to claim the rushing title again in 2013. The Vikings do love to run the ball, but seeing how he has already been taking a beating in the NFL for seven years it could be extremely hard to maintain that health two years in a row while carrying the ball an average 22 times a game.
The next player on the list at +650 is Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch. He rushed for 1,590 yards last season, which was the third-highest total in the league. This was after posting 1,204 yards in 2011 in his first full season with the Seahawks. There is no doubt that there is some solid value in those odds especially if gets the ball 300 plus times like he did last season. The problem is that Seattle went out and drafted running back Christine Michael from Texas A&M in the second round, which could end-up reducing Lynch’s rushing attempts this year.
Arian Foster burst onto the scene with Houston in 2010 by rushing for an NFL-high 1,616 yards that season. He gained 1,224 yards in 2011 and jumped back up to 1,424 yards in 2012, but his yards-per-carry average has continued to drop since that breakout season when he averaged 4.9 yards an attempt. He will still remain a vital part of the Texans’ running game but it is tough to bet on him getting the ball a league-high 351 times like he did last season.
The contender to the rushing title that caught my eye is Alfred Morris at +1000. He rushed for 1,613 yards on 335 carries for an average of 4.8 yards an attempt as a rookie in 2012 sharing the same backfield in Washington as Robert Griffin III. Given the fact that RG III is still recovering from offseason knee surgery, even if he does get back into the starting lineup by opening day, you could definitely see a heavy dose of Morris all season long. The legs are still fresh and the spirit is more than willing to carry the load.
Searching for the best value at long odds, the name Steven Jackson jumped off the page at +1200. After spending his first nine seasons in the league with St. Louis, he has found new life with a legitimate Super Bowl contender in Atlanta. He will also be the featured back in that offense since the Falcons decided to part ways with Michael Turner this offseason.
Jackson has rushed for 1,000 yards or more in each of his last eight seasons but does not have the typical wear and tear of a back that age after carrying the ball just 260 times in 2011 and 257 times last season. Atlanta is a team that strives for balance on offense, which was not present in last season’s pass-verse-run attack, so Jackson should have ample opportunities to carry the ball this season.
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