Kansas City Chiefs Predictions for Playoffs and Best Bets with Super Bowl Odds
The defending Super Bowl Champions are once again in the running for a third Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era, but this isn’t the same Chiefs team we have gotten used to seeing over the last several years. The Kansas City defense has been doing a bulk of the heavy lifting for the Chiefs, and a dominant defense with an electric quarterback is a proven winning formula. The Chiefs took down the Dolphins in the Wild Card round, holding the most dominant offense in the league to just 7 points and 264 total yards. The Chiefs faithful are confident that Kansas City can make another deep playoff run. However, do the odds justify taking a shot on Mahomes and the Chiefs? Let’s find out.
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Odds to win the divisional round: +125
Odds to win the AFC: +350
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +750
Team Breakdown
As long as the Kansas City Chiefs have a healthy Patrick Mahomes under center, they will always have a solid shot at lifting the Lombardi Trophy at the season’s end. Mahomes has been far from his best this season, throwing for the fewest yards and touchdowns in the last 4 seasons. Not only that, but his efficiency dropped significantly, throwing the most picks in his career (14), and finishing with a 92.6 QB rating, the lowest since his rookie season. However, it’s still Patrick Mahomes. When the lights shine brightest, Mahomes reaches another gear and delivers game changing plays on a consistent basis. His offensive weapons are possibly the worst in his career, as an aging Travis Kelce has been less than his usual self, posting some of the lowest numbers in his career. On the bright side, Rashee Rice has developed into a true WR1 in his first NFL season and can make fantastic plays in the open field, and has just 5 drops compared to 79 catches. Starting center Creed Humphrey and left guard Joe Thuney have both been named as Pro Bowl starters for the second consecutive season, allowing Mahomes to have the time he needs in the pocket to make accurate passes. The Chiefs are no longer the NFL’s best offense, but their 6th most passing yards will still instill fear in opposing secondaries, as Mahomes just needs one opportunity to flip the game on its head.
On defense, the Chiefs have been dominant, finishing in the top 3 in both points allowed (17.3) and yards (310.4). Their ability to go into one-on-one coverage down the field has allowed them to fill up the tackle box and give solid help to the mid-range throws. L’Jarius Sneed will have a huge role to play in the Chiefs secondary and can be trusted in single coverage against even the league’s best pass catchers. While Sneed in the secondary and Chris Jones on the line are both dominant, like many great defenses in the past, it all hinges on the linebackers. Willie Gay Jr. and Nick Bolton have put together the best seasons of their respective careers and were both named as alternates in the Pro Bowl. The luxury of having two capable defenders anchoring the Chiefs defense is one that has led to great success, and we saw the pair absolutely shut down anything Tua Tagovailoa tried to get going in the middle of the field last week. While their assignments won’t be getting any easier, the Chiefs have leaned on a strong defense all season long, and their Super Bowl hopes will hinge on whether or not they can continue to deliver stops when they need to most.
Path to the Super Bowl
Despite finishing in the third seed, the Chiefs have quite an uphill battle to get to Las Vegas next month. They took down the Dolphins in quick fashion, and now have the all too familiar matchup against the Buffalo Bills waiting for them in the divisional round. The Chiefs and Bills squared off twice in the last 3 playoffs, with Patrick Mahomes getting the better of Josh Allen and the Bills in both meetings. This Bills team feels a little bit different. Allen has been playing dominant football in recent weeks, with the Bills winning 6 straight games heading into this matchup, including a victory over Kansas City in Week 14. Despite a mounting list of injuries, the Bills defense has held firm, and it will be a very tight battle in Buffalo this weekend. If the Chiefs can get past the Bills, they will be faced with a road game against the Ravens or a home clash against the Texans. Baltimore has been the team to beat in the AFC all season long, as their number 1 ranked defense, paired with MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson, has led them to a 13-4 record and the top seed in the AFC. If the Ravens falter, the Chiefs will take on CJ Stroud and the Texans, who will be full of confidence they can continue their Cinderella run in Stroud’s rookie season. Both teams will be a tough test, but we’ve seen the Chiefs swat aside superior opposition several times in recent years, and they will be confident they can do so once again. In the Super Bowl, the winner of the NFC is expected to be the 49ers, but the Lions, Buccaneers, and Packers will all hope to take down the Super Bowl favorites on route to their own unlikely Super Bowl runs.
Best Bets
The Kansas City Chiefs have slipped down the Super Bowl odds, and the defending champions find themselves with the 3rd longest odds in the AFC. While there’s no denying the Chiefs offense hasn’t been looking like their usual selves this season, a strong defensive unit, coupled with an electric Mahomes, could be enough to see them make an unlikely Super Bowl run. The plus money on offer in the divisional round is tempting, but my favorite Chiefs bet is for them to win the AFC at +350 odds. I’ve managed to bite my tongue this whole article, but it’s time to mention the elephant in the room. There is nothing the NFL wants more than to see Taylor Swift cheering on her man for the world to see. Swift has brought a whole new audience on the NFL’s radar this season. And while the casual Swifties won’t be tuning in to regular old playoff games, a Super Bowl featuring the world’s biggest popstar would shatter NFL records. The Chiefs have the talent to reach the big game. And while a victory won’t be necessary for the NFL ratings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a generous flag or two go the Chiefs way down the stretch. Even without Taylor Swift, the Chiefs are a solid football team that have a winning mentality, and at +350 odds to reach the Super Bowl, we’ll take a shot on the defending champions.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC +350
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