There are two games in the NFL this weekend, and neither of them are necessarily what we would have expected. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot of imagination to foresee the AFC Championship matchup a couple of weeks ago, but the NFC Championship has come right out of left field. It's the first time that the Championship game hasn't included the first, second, or third seed. These might not be the games that the NFL was expecting or likely hoping for, but that doesn't take away from their intrigue. Both games are close and surprisingly tough to call. Here's a look at how they break down:

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Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals - By now, the results of the last meeting between these two teams has been discussed to death - Arizona traveled to Philadelphia and was crushed. The trick to handicapping this game is, in large part, determining how much of that result to pay close attention to, and how much of it to discard. To varying degrees both teams are different than they were then, and the circumstances are much different. From Arizona's perspective this game can arguably be discounted for at least three reasons:

- The location. Five of the team's seven losses came when the Cardinals traveled west and played outside. They had no wins in the same circumstances. It's not a good thing that the Cards were so bad on the road, but it doesn't really matter here since this game is in the desert.

- The stakes. When the Cardinals played in Philadelphia, they knew that they only needed one win to clinch the NFC West. They also knew that they played St. Louis at home in the next game. Again, it's mot a good thing, but it is totally understandable that the Cars could have put forth less than their best effort. Things are clearly different now.

- The Edge. The resurgence of Edgerrin James has been one of the big storylines of the playoffs. The last time the teams met he didn't even play. The Cardinals only had 10 carries for 25 yards that time, but they are almost certain to try to establish the run more this time around. They may or may not succeed against the strong Eagles defense, but regardless, the presence of James will change the dynamic of the game significantly.

Another factor getting significant play in this game is the experience factor. The Eagles are in their fifth NFC Championship in 10 years, while the Cardinals have never before been in one. That is perceived as a big advantage for the Eagles. Again, I think that this is being overplayed. The Eagles have an impressive amount of experience, but so do the Cards. Ken Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator when the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner won a Super Bowl and played in another with St. Louis. James never won a championship game, but he played in one with the Colts. It's not a lot of experience, but it's important - it covers the key leaders of the team. Arizona won't be as lost as much of the public seems to fear that they will be. Besides, most of the Eagles' experience has prepared them for losing the big games.

The Cards are on an improbable, unlikely run. The Giants were last year, too. That momentum and the truly hysterical hometown crowd combine to make the Cards interesting. I'm not entirely convinced that Arizona will win this one. I have a strong feeling, though, that this line doesn't give them enough credit. That means value, and value is attractive.

Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers are the better team, they are at home, and they have already beaten the Ravens twice. This one is easy, right? Not so fast. The problem here isn't in assessing the relative merits of the teams. It's in assessing the size of the spread. Six points is a lot in a game with a total as low as 32.5.

What is talked about a lot is that the Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice this year. There are a couple of things about that, though. First, winning three games against the same team in one year is a tough thing to do. More significantly, the Ravens weren't exactly blown out by the Steelers. They lost the first game, which was in Pittsburgh, by a field goal in overtime. The second game was a four-point loss in a defensive battle, and Baltimore led the game until the last 43 seconds of the game. The games have been close.

Both defenses, the hallmarks of the teams, have been very good in the playoffs. Ed Reed is playing top-notch defense, and his Ravens have shut down both Miami and Tennessee convincingly. Pittsburgh allowed 24 points against San Diego, but the total doesn't tell the story. After giving up an early touchdown, the Steelers shut San Diego down until the game was mostly in hand. It's not a bold prediction to say that this will be a defensive battle. The total is as low as it is for a reason.

Concluding this NFL commentary check out Doc's NFL Preseason Betting Tips page. Doc's Sports NFL Schedule Strength page is and excellent NFL resource as well. Doc's NFL Europa resource is a must read for NFL wagering. Since 1971 Doc's Sports has been recognized as a leader and trusted name in sports handicapping information.

A looming question is Joe Flacco. He's already in virgin territory - no rookie quarterback before him has won two playoff games. It would seem tempting to write off is chances here. After all, the Steelers' defense is more than good enough to give him fits. A couple of things, though. First, He has a lot of experience against the defense already. He was pretty solid in the first game. He struggled in the second game, but his team only lost by four. More importantly, the Ravens have shown repeatedly, and especially in the playoffs, that Flacco doesn't have to be masterful in order for his team to win.

Based on what I have talked about, you can probably guess where I am going with this. I think Pittsburgh is better, and I think that there is a good chance that they will win. I am far less confident, though, that they will win by a touchdown. That makes me look long and hard at the Ravens at this price.