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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
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Doc's Sports
1 Unit Play. Take #111 Over in Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders (8p.m., Thursday, August 13 ESPN Unlimited) We have a pair of first year head coaches that are offensive minded. Zero points were scored in the first game of the preseason last Thursday and yet the game finished with 63 total points. I like the quarterback rotations for both squads and I see both teams reaching the twenties in points in this game. Arizona was very aggressive in their play calling in the Hall of Fame game and you do not want to get your running backs banged up with too many carries. Thus it is easier to throw the football and we expect a high scoring game.Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTIONS2-Unit Play. Take #111 Arizona (+3.5) over Las Vegas (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 13)
There are just too many playable long-term trends to ignore here. First, The Raiders are just 23-35 (40%) in their last 58 preseason games. They are 9-17 (35%) when they are favored in the preseason. Second, new head coaches are just 11-19 ATS (37%) in their opening game since 2021. Third, teams that played in the Hall of Fame Game have gone 4-0 ATS in their second game (which is their opponents’ first game) the last two years and HOF participants are 7-3 ATS in their second game since 2019. Carson Beck isn’t playing in this game. Great. He’s a rookie and probably would’ve been worse in this game after his strong showing in the HOF Game. That means Arizona has three veterans with a ton of NFL preseason experience between them – Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and Kedon Slovis – at quarterback in this one. Compare that with the Raiders, who will give rookie Fernando Mendoza a long look and likely finish the game with rookie Jacob Clark (Missouri State). There are too many advantages for Arizona and we are getting points to boot.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Indianapolis at New England (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 13)
Shane Steichen is an offensive guy. He is 8-1 against the total in his nine NFL preseason games as a head coach and his teams average 24.9 points per game. If you include his time as OC in Philadelphia, Steichen-led offenses have gone 13-2 against the total and average 21.6 PPG. He’s heading into Year 4 and his seat is very warm. This guy can’t afford to take things easy. Mike Vrabel’s patriots scored 48 points in their home opener last season and averaged 26 PPG in their three games. Vrabel’s teams have averaged 23.7 PPG in his preseason opener over six years at Tennessee and New England. His teams have averaged 19.1 PPG in his 20 career preseason games. The Colts have a lot of depth and experience in their quarterback room, with Riley Leonard, Anthony Richardson and Easton Stick all guys that can do some things. Richardson will get a half of football so I expect some big plays for both/either team. Also, Josh McDaniels is not a guy that holds back in the preseason. His teams have averaged 27.7 PPG over his last four stops as either a HC or OC and dating back to 2017 his teams have averaged 26.3 PPG in the preseason.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 39.5 Tennessee at San Francisco (9 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 13)
FRIDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #116 Washington (+3.5) over Miami (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 14)
I don’t really understand how Miami is favored in this game. Especially on the road. By all accounts, Washington dominated the joint practice these two teams had. And Miami’s new head coach, Jeff Hafley, had a great attitude about the joint practices that I think will carry over into this game. His approach is, to paraphrase, that he doesn’t want to scheme a lot of stuff up because that can give you a false impression of guys. Hafley wants to play a lot of base stuff and see who can do the basics. Miami has a ton of dead cap space and that has led to them having the worst roster in the NFL. They have 51 new players, 47 players in that are either rookies or entering just their second season, new coaching staff and new systems. I know that Dan Quinn does not care even a little bit about the preseason, going 7-18 ATS in his last 25 preseason games. But Miami still shouldn’t be favored here.
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 35.5 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Jets (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 14)
I think we are going to see some late points in this game. I really like Tampa Bay fourth-stringer Jalon Daniels and I think he’s going to do some things. New York’s fourth string guy is Bailey Zappe, a player that has had some big NFL preseason games against fourth string defenses. Aaron Glenn’s Jets went 3-0 against the total last year in the preseason and I don’t see the Jets doing much defensively. Todd Bowles’ teams have allowed an average of 18.4 PPG in the preseason in his time in Tampa Bay. That’s dating back to him as a DC in 2019-2021. If they allow 20 points to the Jets this one will clear the bar.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp had no picks
Scott Rickenbach
1-Unit Play. Take #105: Detroit +7 at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 13)This line jumped after the Bengals head coach announced that some starters like Burrow and Chase as well as others including Higgins and Lawrence were expected to start here. However, let's not forget that this one already was in the 3.5 range and I think the odds makers had this feeling all along. Also, just because those guys are starting does not mean they will play very long in this game and it is almost always the back-ups that end up playing key roles in the outcome of preseason games. All of that being said, getting 7 points in preseason is a big deal and this Lions team is a structured team with some decent depth in my opinion and I will grab the generous points on offer here. 1* DETROIT +7
1-Unit Play. Take #120: Atlanta +4.5 vs Denver (7:00 p.m., Friday, Aug. 14)
This one offers solid line value with the Falcons catching 4.5 points here. Head coach Kevin Stefanski came to Atlanta after being fired by Cleveland and he'll want to get his team off to a solid start even though it is preseason. With Denver QB Bo Nix announced as not playing until the next two games, I am going to challenge the other two QB's (Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger) to beat me and cover this spread. I just don't see the Broncos being able to pull away in this one and feel Stefanski is going to have his guys ready here in his first game on the Falcons sidelines. 1* ATLANTA +4.5
2-Unit Play. Take #126: Chicago +3.5 vs Cleveland (1:00 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 15)
The Bears defense is shaking in its boots as they know they have to face Deshaun Watson and Sheduer Sanders in this one. All kidding aside, I realize that a QB competition can mean good things for teams in the preseason but when it is Watson and Sanders battling it out ... is it truly a good thing? This line was nearly a pick'em and now is up to 3.5 on the Browns and I just don't see it. This is still preseason football when so many things can happen and I love the value with dogs like this when a favorite is over-valued by the masses. Sanders had only 2 TDs but 7 INTs over his last 4 games last season. Watson hasn't played since the 2024 season and neither one of these guys have been impressive in camp. So when you have a line moving because of the QBs and yet both those QBs have major issues / concerns, you can see why I am happy to fade the move when I can get a preseason dog at more than a field goal. 2* CHICAGO +3.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
2-Unit Play. #142. Take Green Bay Packers -150 ML over the Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday @ 7pm est)Who do you think truly needs this game more? It will make this entire Green Bay Coaching staff, the new blood look like fools if they lose this game to the old blood in McCarthy and they do not want to harken back to the old days of McCarthy or let him have bragging rights by beating the Packers a team he used to coach forever, Lafleur will absolutely be focused here to win this.
2-Unit Play. #113. Take Tennessee Titans -6 over San Francisco 49ers (Thursday @ 9pm est)
Coach Saleh is mad at the world and he gets a second chance here and he will do well with Tennessee. Remember, he has a good QB now, great at defense, used to be the DC against this very Niners team so he knows them well, Tennessee needs excitement and an early win, even if it is pre-season, we go with Titans.
1-Unit Play. #111. Take Over 41 Arizona vs. Vegas Raiders (Friday @ 8pm est)
Lots of young QB's trying to prove themselves here from Beck to Mendoza and veterans will also get a start too, look for the new Arizona coach, the former OC of the Rams to put up some points here in this game.
1-Unit Play. #125. Take Cleveland Browns -3.5 over Chicago Bears (Saturday @ 1pm est)
Tons of excitement here in Cleveland with Shadeur and others and the Bears have one of the best offensive packages in the league and this year compared to last year, they have some true talent in the backup position for QB, but the difference here is that Cleveland is hungry for a monster win and early mojo boost and I think they get it here.
1-Unit Play. #128. Take New Orleans Saints ML (-130) Over the Jacksonville Jaguars (Saturday @ 4pm est)
The Saints never planned to win last year and they have gotten so much great young talent and a QB they never thought would become so great and they were highly competitive even taking it to my Falcons a couple of times, they want to win this badly for the home crowd and we like them for a win here.
1-Unit Play. #123. Take Minnesota Vikings ML ML (-140) over the New York Giants (Saturday 1pm est)
Finally, lots of fighting in Vikings camp with the QB Battle and we love both these qb's to come out fired up and to prove themselves with McCarthy and Murray fighting for a spot and we will see Wentz who is savvy veteran as well also have some success, look for Minnesota to win here as they clearly have the edge in QBs coming into this game.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL PRESEASON WEEK #11 Unit Play. #109 Under 37.5 Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston (8:00p.m., Thursday, August 13)
1 Unit Play. #120 Atlanta +4.5 over Denver (7:00p.m., Friday, August 14)
1 Unit Play. #134 Seattle -2.5 over Dallas (8:00p.m., Saturday, August 15)
Tony George
NFLXThursday 8/13/2026
1 Unit
Play #114 / #113 Tennessee / San Francisco (Over 40)
*9 EST
The Titans have an above average QB Room with Cam Ward, Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker. I doubt very seriously you see Ward but all QB’s have starting experience in the NFL. Brian Daboll is the OC and as the Giants head coach and play caller they lit up the scoreboard last year in the NFLX. Tennessee head coach Saleh was DC for the Niners last year and knows their players and schemes. I expect the Titans to put up points and have no doubts; the Niners will try and counterpunch. You will see Mat Jones at QB for the Niners and Adrian Martinez is a wildcard and can break big plays for them at QB. Play the Over.
Friday 8/14
1 Unit
#120 Atlanta (+4) over Denver
*7 EST
The Kevin Stefanski debuts in Atlanta begins. Bettors seem very willing to back Sam Ehlinger here for Denver who had a good Preseason last year but he ain’t all that. I disagree. I like the Falcons this year to compete at a high level and they have a QB battle going on with Tua and Pennix. Doubt we see either one but overall, I like Atlanta at home here. Stefanski is an offensive minded guy and he will open it up. Denver’s #1 defense will play little if at all, as they look deep into the roster here as cuts are coming up for Peyton. The Bronco’s have had a ton of injuries in camp and Peyton will risk no one, and their OL I read is a mess with a slew of injuries. QB Cooper Rush will get the lion’s share of snaps for the Dirty Birds and I like them to cover at home in this one as the new coach wants to make an impression.
Saturday 8/15
1 Unit
#123 Minnesota (-2.5) over NY Giants
*1 EST
I like Minny in this game. Although Kyler Murray has been slated as QB1 for the Vikings, you will see plenty of McCarthy trying to prove himself. You also have Caron Wentz who will see plenty of snaps and an ex-NFL starter who is in a battle with Mx Brosmer to make the roster as QB3, so I expect Minny to look at offense here. John Harbaugh is known as a great preseason coach all those years with the Ravens, but he has his hands full at NY trying to get a roster to compete right now and he will not risk any starter. There are a lot of defensive player positions up for grabs for NY as I read it, and so they likely will be looking at various packages on defense which should be some opportunity for Minny to strike.
Vernon Croy
2-Unit Play: #106 Cincinnati -7-110 over Detroit (Thursday, August 13, 2026, 7:00pm ET)Take Cincinnati ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Cincinnati in this spot tonight, especially with their backups coming into play. Burrow is expected to get some snaps and he has two very good backups once he leaves the game. On the other hand, Detroit does not have good backups at key positions. Cincinnati is the superior team here. When backups come into play. Detroit will not be starting Goff; instead, Altmyer will start under center for Detroit with Dobbs backing him up. Although, Altmyer did play great for Illinois, but the NFL is a totally different breed and I do expect him to struggle here tonight. Altmyer is slender and does not have big hands which causes him fumble problems and he does lack zip on the ball so I would not be shocked to see the Bengals with some interceptions tonight. I definitely look for Cincinnati to step up defensively here tonight as well. Play Cincinnati ATS
1-Unit Play: #115 Miami -3.5-110 over Washington (Friday, August 14, 2026, 7:00pm ET)
Take Miami ATS as my top NFL pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Miami a lot in this spot, especially with the backups coming into play. Miami will be able to move the ball against this Washington defense and I do expect them to have tremendous success on the ground. I'm not saying Miami is the better team because they're definitely not if the starters were actually playing. When it comes to preseason you always need to look at the backups. We are also seeing lopsided action coming in on Washington and yet this line has moved by a half a point to -3.5 from -3. Washington just wants to get out of the preseason healthy while Miami has something to prove coming into this game. Play Miami ATS
2-Unit Play: #122 Buffalo -2.5-110 over Carolina (Saturday, August 15, 2026, 1:00pm ET)
Take Buffalo ATS as my top NFL pick for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Buffalo is hands down the superior team here, especially with the backups coming into play. This is a Buffalo team that will contend for the Super Bowl, and they are built for it this season. Meanwhile, Carolina comes into this game with their offensive line beat up. Buffalo is hands down the superior team here and they will take care of business at home in their new stadium. When it comes to preseason games, you need to look at backups at key positions and Buffalo absolutely owns Carolina in that regard here Saturday. Play Buffalo ATS
Scott Spreitzer
2-Unit Play: Take 125 Browns -180 over Bears (1 p.m., Saturday, August 15)This is one of those spots we look for in Week-1 of the preseason every year. The Browns have a new head coach and a battle at QB. HC Todd Monken has announced that DeShaun Watson will start Saturday’s game and that Watson & Shedeur Sanders will both play a half. I don’t believe we’ll see many Chicago starters, at least not for too long. They’ve suffered more than their share of injuries in camp and need to protect for the regular season. The Bears know what they have. I’m backing the Browns on the money line. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young had no picks
Strike Point Sports
2-Unit Play. Take UNDER 36.5 Miami at Washington (7 p.m., Friday, August 14)Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders are 2-14 straight up over the course of their last 16 preseason games. Last year they lost their three preseason games 109-38. The year before that they also went 0-3 straight up. Quinn is a defensive minded coach that treats the preseason like practices. He doesn't care one bit whether his teams win or lose. Yes, giving up 109 points over three preseason games can give you pause but...Jeff Hafley, for the Dolphins will be making his preseason debut, and wants his players to be ready, but he is a different type of coach than Miami has had in the past. Hafley is old school. He will want to win the offensive and defensive lines, and will make this slugfest. He is a DC turned head coach. This game sets up perfectly for an under. Quinn doesn't care about the score, and he will focus on fundamentals. Hafley will pound the football and instill a grimy style in his players. This will be a low scoring crappy game, but one we will win money on. Take the under as the Dolphins win 16-14.
Note: These two teams practiced together this week so they got to see their starters in action. This one will be filled with backups.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Thursday August 13th 2026-
1 Unit Play Take #112 Las Vegas -3 over Arizona (8:00pm est):
I love bad NFL teams from last season when they're playing at home with a new head coach in the preseason and we have a great example of that here with Las Vegas. The Raiders will likely be ready to play in this one and I think they will try to win this game.
Lay the points with Las Vegas.
Saturday August 15th 2026-
1 Unit Play Take #124 New York Giants +2.5 over Minnesota (1:00pm est):
No coach in NFL history has taken the preseason more serious than New York's John Harbaugh. He comes into this year with an almost hard to believe 48-16 career record in exhibition games. On the other side of things Minnesota under Kevin O'Connell is just 4-8 in his 12 career preseason. I expect Harbaugh to have his young team fired up here in his first game coaching the Giants.
Play New York in this one.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy had no picks
Nick Menken had no picks
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