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Last Release of Expert NFL Picks from our handicappers.
Just so the public knows we are always transparent and honest with our reporting, in this spot we will list all of the previous weeks NFL football picks and analysis.
This page will be updated each Thursday at 5AM Eastern.
Get free NFL Picks including expert parlays picks for betting NFL games this week against the spread.
Doc's Sports
3 Unit Play. Take #306 Under 48.5 in Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (1p.m., Thursday, November 27 FOX) Feel the Packers have the better defense and the worse quarterback in this matchup. That sets us a strong play with the under in this annual holiday game at Ford Field. The under has hit 2 of the last 3 matchups between these two teams including in week 1 when Green Bay won, 27-13. Both teams are desperate to win to keep pace with the Bears and I see this is a hard-fought NFC North game that goes down to the wire and stays under the posted total.3 Unit Play. Take #307 Kansas City Chiefs -3 over Dallas Cowboys (4:30p.m., Thursday, November 27 CBS) Just not buying the Cowboys resurgence. They rallied from 21-0 to beat Philadelphia on Sunday, but I see Kansas City as the more desperate team in this game. The Chiefs need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive and they have the better quarterback and defense in this game. Kansas City is due for a comfortable win, and I expect it to come on Thursday in a game that will draw a huge rating for CBS. The last time Kansas City played Dallas they won by double digits.
3 Unit Play. Take #324 Under 60 in Utah Utes @ Kansas Jayhawks (12p.m., Friday, November 28 ESPN) Just feel this is too high of a number considering both coaches like to control the line of scrimmage and win with defense and running the football. The Utes have stayed under this number 7 of their 11 games this season. Kansas has stayed under this posted number in 9 of their 11 games this season. For Kansas to stay in this game they will need to run the football effectively and that will chew up the clock.
Robert Ferringo
THURSDAY NFL SELECTIONS2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 48.5 Green Bay at Detroit (1 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #307 Kansas City (-3) over Dallas (4:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 27)
This Cowboys team is exactly what I thought they were going to be. They are entertaining and excellent offensively. But they still aren’t a good team. This is the same group that lost by 10 at home to a bad Arizona team on Monday Night Football just a few weeks ago and the same one that got bombed by Denver. This Kansas City offense is better than anything that the Dallas defense has seen in a while. This defense is still shaky as hell and I just don’t think they are going to be able to slow Patrick Mahomes down.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
1-Unit Play. Take #463 Arizona (+2.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
This just isn’t a very good Tampa Bay team. Their defense has been atrocious and has allowed 116 points over the last three weeks (38.7 PPG). This team has been outgained in eight straight games and their only win over the last month was over the Saints. This Arizona team is a little better than its record. They’ve played an absolutely brutal schedule and already have six losses by four points or less. With Baker Mayfield unlikely to play I think the Bucs keep losing.
1-Unit Play. Take #470 Miami (-5.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
1-Unit Play. Take #474 Cleveland (+5.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
3-Unit Play. Take #480 L.A. Chargers (-9.5) over Las Vegas (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
The Chargers are coming off the worst loss in Jim Harbaugh’s NFL coaching career. I am sure he was maniacal over the bye week and will have his team ready to play this week. Their last two home games were wins by 15 and 27 and those came against teams that are better than the Raiders. Las Vegas has lost three of its last five games by double-digits and they have gotten demolished on the road this year, losing by 17, 34 and 31 points in three of their last four road games. The Raiders are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and this team has major problems on both sides of the ball. I think the Chargers will have shored up their offensive line during the week off and they should have a plan for slowing down Maxx Crosby. The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in five of their last nine games and I think the Chargers offense will be ready to go.
1-Unit Play. Take #482 Washington (+6) over Denver (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
The Broncos are not nearly as good as their record suggests. They have won their last three games by three points apiece and six of their last seven wins have come by four points or fewer. Denver plays up or down to its level of competition and they barely beat weak sisters like Las Vegas and the two New York duds. All three of those games were decided by less than one score and Denver hasn’t been nearly as formidable away from Mile High. Washington stinks and their season has gone off the rails. But I think they will show up in prime time here. And if Dan Quinn was able to fix the defense a bit in the bye week then this should be a competitive game.
Today’s Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 41.5 New Orleans at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
At some point the Saints need to almost accidentally score some points. They have averaged just 10.8 points per game over their last five games. But last week they moved the ball well, turning five trips inside the Atlanta 30-yard-line into just three points. The Saints had a 29.3 OYPP last week and are at 24.5 over the last three weeks. That’s unsustainable. Miami’s DYPP in its last game was 29.2 and over the last three weeks it is at 20.2. Again, unsustainable. Miami’s offense has scored 27 or more points in half of their last 10 games. The Dolphins OYPP is just 19.5 over their last three games so they should be ready for a breakout as well. This is the same Dolphins defense that got run over for the entire month of September and half of October. They’ve been better over the last four games (17 PPG) but who knows what group is coming back after the break. For at pathetic as the New Orleans offense has been, there have been at least 40 combined points in seven of New Orleans’ last 10 games. I have this one at 30-21 for the home team and this one should beat the total.
7-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 41.5 Minnesota at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Seattle has the No. 3 scoring offense in the league, averaging 29.5 points per game. They have averaged 31 points per game over their last three despite going just 5-for-12 in the red zone. Minnesota has scored 34 or more four different times in their last nine games. They’ve only had fewer than 41 combined points in a game twice in their last 10 games, and those two games had 1300 total yards of offense in them. These guys can light it up and they have scored 150 points in their last four home games (37.5). Minnesota’s offense is a mess. But J.J. McCarthy was a pile of dung. There is no way that the offense will be worse with Max Brosmer under center. In fact, don’t be surprised if Brosmer gives the offense some life. This Vikings defense is worn out. And they have been boom or bust in recent weeks anyway, allowing 23 or more points in five of their last six games. And for all of the talk about Seattle’s defense, they just allowed 24 points to the lowly Titans and the Seahawks have allowed 20 or more points in three straight games. This number should’ve been closer to 45.5. I don’t know why the books and public have corrected the Vikings offense downward when literally any human being on the planet being under center would make Minnesota’s attack better. Both teams will crack 20 points in this game and it should get well ‘over’.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Craig Trapp
NFL4-Unit Play. Take #309 Over (51.5) Cincinnati vs Baltimore (8 p.m., Thursday, November 27)
The Bengals defense has been historically bad and I don’t see that changing against the elite Ravens offense. Good news for the Bengals, Jamar Chase is back from suspension and it looks like Burrow is back under center. Last year both games went over with 69 and 79 points scored and we expect more of the same this year. Take the Over in Thursday Night Bengals and Ravens game.
7-Unit Play. Take #481 Denver (-5.5) Over Washington (8:20 p.m., Sunday, November 30)
The Broncos are the best team in the AFC and after a bye week, Denver will play even better. The last few games, Denver has been finding ways to win but for sure weren’t playing their best. The bye week allowed the Broncos to fix small problems on offense and we expect Denver to play great this week. Washington has been terrible with backup QB Mariotta, and we don’t see that changing this week. Take Denver to win and cover on the road Sunday night.
3-Unit Play. Take #480 Chargers Team Total Over (-25.5) Points (4:25 p.m., Sunday, November 30)
This Chargers team needed the bye week to refocus. After an ugly 35-6 loss to the Jags two weeks ago, we will see LA much more focused on offense and that will equal a big output this week. It will help that the Chargers face a bad Raiders team that has give up 57 points last two weeks (CLE & DAL). Take Chargers Team Total over this Sunday.
3-Unit Play. Take 7 Point Teaser: Seattle (-6) over Minnesota & LA Rams (-3.5) over Carolina (Sunday, November 30)
Think both of these favorites win by double digits, but much safer on the 7 point teaser on Sunday.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
3-Unit Play. Take #307 Kansas City (-3) at Dallas (4:30 p.m., Thu, Nov. 27)Both teams are off comeback wins but the Cowboys were helped by defensive injuries to the Eagles and that helped fuel the miracle comeback win in which the Eagles blew a 21-point lead. We had Philadelphia here as my top NFL game of the week and that one burned me up. We get some back this week by fading the Cowboys. The Chiefs continue to be in must-win mode and are bolstered by the comeback win last week. The Chiefs are a top 6 team on both sides of the ball. Dallas has been great offensively but horribly defensively and that will ultimately be their undoing this week. The Chiefs pull away as this one goes on. 3* KANSAS CITY -3
4-Unit Play. Take #314 Philadelphia (-7) vs Chicago (3 p.m., Fri, Nov. 28)
The Cowboys were helped by defensive injuries to the Eagles and that helped fuel the miracle comeback win in which the Eagles blew a 21-point lead. We had Philadelphia here as my top NFL game of the week and that one burned me up. We get some back this week by backing the Eagles here. Don't let this line fool you. These teams are both 8-3 and yet the Eagles are favored by 7 points here? Yes indeed this home team is destined to roll large here. Philadelphia is fired up for a huge response after blowing the game at Dallas and the Bears are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both the Bears road losses this season have come by a margin of 14 or more points. The Eagles pull away as this one goes along and gets into the 3rd and 4th quarters. 4* PHILADELPHIA -7
3-Unit Play. Take #473 San Francisco (-4.5) at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sun, Nov. 30)
I am looking forward to Browns rookie QB Shedeur Sanders facing a real defense this week after he benefited from facing the Raiders last week. I know the 49ers have some injuries but they still have a much better system and much better scheme and better coaching than the Raiders. I look for the Niners defense to give Sanders and Co. fits in this one! I respect the Browns defense and I know SF is on a short week here but there is still such a disparity between these teams and I expect this one will turn into a road rout. I know the Browns shocked the Packers earlier this season but they were outstated in that game. Also, the other two Cleveland wins have come against teams that now have a combined 6-16 record on the season. Here the Browns face a SF team that is 8-4 thi sseason and I look for a solid road win here in this one. Lay the points. 3* SAN FRANCISCO -4.5
3-Unit Play. Take #481 Denver (-5.5) at Washington (8:20 p.m., Sun, Nov. 30)
Washington is still likely going to be without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin as both were limited in practice Wednesday and there is no reason to rush them back considering the Commanders rough season. That said, and with both teams off a bye, I look for the strong road team to win this one handily. the Broncos are not without some injury concerns too but they are not as major as those of Washington. Also, Denver is simply the much better overall team and they have one of the best defenses in the league while the Commanders have one of the worst. Commanders are off an OT loss but this was preceded by 3 straight losses by 20+ points! The Broncos are on an 8-game winning streak. I know a number of those victories were close but the Commanders continue to get pummeled in most of their recent defeats. Look for the Broncos defense to be the difference here and that allows the road team to eventually pull away for a dominating road win! 3* DENVER -5.5
5-Unit Play. Take #477 Buffalo (-3.5) at Pittsburgh (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
The Bills are in a great spot coming off a loss here. I know the Steelers are also off a loss but as I have said many times this season, Pittsburgh is vastly overrated. Look at them statistically and this Steelers team is bottom 5 on both sides of the ball this season and yet they have won so many games with 'smoke and mirrors' and you know it is going to catch up with them here late in the season. That started last week with the loss to Chicago and will continue now against a strong Buffalo team. Yes, the Bills fell flat in the loss at Houston last week but this Buffalo team is a top 3 offense statistically and is arguably the #1 pass defense in the league! I just don't see the Steelers scoring enough to keep up here! The Steelers are off of a tight loss at Chicago but their prior loss was by 15 points plus they already have two home losses that came by a double digit margin! This one will too as the better team takes it to the Steelers even if Rodgers is back (as expected). 5* BUFFALO -3.5
6-Unit Play. Take #483 NY Giants (+7.5) at New England (8:15 p.m., Monday, Dec. 1)
The Giants offense has been much better since the coaching change and this is even without Dart at QB as they piled up 500 yards of offense last week. New York arguably looked better in their OT loss to Detroit than New England looked in their win over the Bengals. That said, I love the value here with +7.5 points available on the Giants. New York could have Dart back at QB this week but even if he is not able to go (concussion protocol) let's not forget the Giants offense was great last week. Also, the defense could get a boost with the possible return of LB Kayvon Thibodeaux. Either way, even if Dart and Thibodeaux end up missing this game, I like the Giants getting 7.5 points. I know they continue to lose but they have been ultra competitive. Their last 3 losses all by 7 or less points and the Patriots have seen 3 of their last 4 wins come by 6 or less points. I also look for the Giants defense to respond to their new DC after the prior defensive coordinator was fired. New DC Charlie Bullen was already a linebackers coach here and I expect the defense to give a huge effort here after seeing the prior DC fired after they yet again blew a double digit lead and then lost in OT last week. Huge effort from a scrappy dog here that also could get some key reinforcements back this week too. Both teams have a bye on deck but then the Patriots have division rival Bills on deck. Not a good spot for them to get a blowout win in my opinion and honestly I would not be surprised to see an upset here. That is why this is my top game in the NFL this week. 6* NY GIANTS +7.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
NoneRaphael Esparza (VSI)
NFL FOOTBALL WEEK #134 Unit Play. Take #307 Under 52.5 Kansas City at Dallas (4:30p.m., Thursday November 27 CBS)
Thanksgiving late afternoon in Dallas looks like we could see a high scoring game, but I see something different. The Chiefs escaped a home loss last Sunday as they came from behind to beat the Colts 23-20 and that total flew ‘Under’. The Chiefs may struggle to cover games, but they have been cashing ‘Under’ tickets as of late. Six straight games the Chiefs have cashed the ‘Under’ and their defense will be ready for the Dallas offense.
3 Unit Play. Take #464 Tampa Bay -2.5 over Arizona (1:00p.m., Sunday November 30 FOX)
Both teams come into this game on struggling but with the Cardinals travelling to Tampa on Sunday I see home field holding. Arizona comes to the Sunshine State on a 3-game losing streak and with the Bucs also on a 3-game losing streak I see Tampa in desperate mode and take all their frustration out on a bad Cardinals team. Tampa Bay have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games as favorites following a loss.
5 Unit Play. Take #480 Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 over Las Vegas (4:25p.m., Sunday November 30 CBS)
The Las Vegas Raiders are a mess right now and I’m shocked that the Chargers were not -12 favorites or higher. The Raiders have dropped five straight and three of those losses were by double-digits. The Chargers are coming off their bye week and the last time we saw LA they lost on the road 35-6 to the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Earlier in the year the Chargers beat the Raiders 20-9 in Las Vegas, and we should see the same type of game being played in Los Angeles. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and I see Justin Herbert outplaying Geno Smith at home.
Tony George
NFL
Thursday
11/27/25
3 Units
Take #307 Kansas City (-3) over Dallas (-120) Buy the half point off the 3. Take it off 3.5 for the added juice.
*4:30 EST
At days end it is Mahomes and Reid versus Prescott and Schottenheimer. Dallas does not have the Pedigree that KC does and when you look at a game like this, where two offenses are solid, it comes down to the team with a better defense. That is KC hands down. KC also for the first time this year ran the football last week and that gave play action a much better chance and they will run the ball here as well, with success. Good defenses travel well, and Mahomes and company will have a field day against this defense. KC had 494 yards last week against the Colts, and allowed just 250 against that offense of Indy. Better QB, better defense, better coach. Take KC who is now rolling and determined.
2 Team 6 Point Teaser (-120) *1 EST
2 Units
Tease #305 Green Bay UP to (+8.5) and Tease #310 Baltimore Down to (-1)
NFL Sunday
11/30/25
6 Units
Take #470 Miami (-6) over New Orleans
*1 EST
Miami off a bye week and get TE Waller back too. If the Dolphins can get their offense going this will be a blowout. The Saints could not stop a Kirk Cousins led offense last week at home and lost by 2 TD’s. Miami beat Atlanta at Atlanta with a healthy team for the Falcons by 24 points! I think RB Achane goes off in this game for Miami. The Saints are 1-4 on the road and face a team who beat Buffalo in here 30-13. The Saints in 11 games this year have covered just 3 times. For all the rumors surrounding Miami with their head coach, this team still plays hard for him and they are off a bye week and healthier. I think the Saints walk into a buzz saw here.
3 Units
Play #475 / #476 Minnesota / Seattle (UNDER 41) -110
*4 EST
I do not see Minny without McCarthy scoring more than 10, and if they had him I still do not see them scoring much more than 14. Seattle is a beast at home and run the ball right at Minny. The Seahawk defense is solid at home. I do not expect Seattle to empty the tank here as a 13-point favorite. They have post season and a division title to worry about. Play the Under.
NFL
Monday Night Football
12/1/25
3 Units
Take #483 NY Giants (+7.5) over New England
*8:15 EST
The Pats got beat up last week in terms of injuries and NY always plays them tough. The Pats lost 2 starting OL and 1 starting DL player last week. New York has played well in 2 losses against Detroit (they should have won the game) and also against Green Bay and Chicago. They find ways to lose late in games and are still playing hard for their interim coach. Whether it be Dart or Winston at QB, I like them to make a game of this. New England has had a weak schedule this year but are 10-2. NY has nothing to lose in this game; the Pats still have a lot on the line for the division and what lies ahead of them. Take the points.
Vernon Croy
6-Unit Play: #305 Green Bay +3-110 over Detroit (Thursday, November 27, 2025, 1:00pm ET)(LINE AVAILABLE AT CIRCA, BETMGM, SUPERBOOK AND SOUTH POINT)
Take Green Bay ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Green Bay on the road in this spot. The Packers four-man rush will have tremendous success on the road here against a Detroit offensive line that is ailing. Goff has always struggled when he is pressured and the Giants had tremendous success against this offensive line. Now Detroit faces an even better pass rush with Green Bay and I feel Green Bay will win this game because of the offensive line injuries that Detroit faces. Keep in mind Green Bay did beat Detroit back on September 7th at Green Bay by 14 points with Love completing 72.7% of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Detroit was dominated in their last game in time of possession with the Giants having the ball for over 37 minutes in that game and they were extremely lucky to come from behind for that victory. Winston put up 366 passing yards against this Detroit defense so you can expect Love to have a huge game Thursday. The Giants also sacked Goff three times in that game and without proper protection this Green Bay defense will feast Thursday. It's also important to note that Detroit did dominate the time of possession at Green Bay by almost 10 minutes but still lost that game 27-13. Play Green Bay ATS
4-Unit Play: #310 Baltimore -7-110 over Cincinnati (Thursday, November 27, 2025, 8:20pm ET)
Take Baltimore ATS as my top NFL pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Baltimore at home in this spot especially against this Cincinnati defense. I do expect Cincinnati to get a boost offensively with Burrow under center but it will not be enough against this explosive Baltimore offense. Cincinnati has allowed 4:15.8 yards per game this season including 156 rushing yards per game along with 259 passing yards per game. Opponents have also completed 66.8% of their passes against Cincinnati this season averaging 32.7 points per game which ranks last defensively in the NFL. I definitely expect Baltimore to put up a big number in this game and they are actually playing for something while Cincinnati's season has basically ended. Baltimore has really stepped up defensively lately allowing just 16 points against Chicago, 6 points against Miami, 19 points against Minnesota, 16 points against Cleveland and just 10 points last week against the New York Jets. Play Baltimore ATS
7-Unit Play: #477 Buffalo -3-115 over Pittsburgh (Sunday, November 30, 2025, 4:25pm ET)
(LINE AVAILABLE AT CIRCA AND SUPERBOOK)
Take Buffalo ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like Buffalo a lot in this spot on the road especially with the key injuries Pittsburgh is dealing with on their offensive and defensive lines. Buffalo is the superior team here and this is a big bounce back spot for them after losing at Houston. Now we did have Houston in that game as my top play because that was a tough situational spot for Buffalo. I do expect a big game from Allen against this Pittsburgh defense that has allowed 364 yards per game this season including 258 pass yards per game. Buffalo has averaged 381 yards per game this season including 147 rushing yards per game which ranks first offensively in the NFL. Buffalo has averaged 28.3 points per game over all the season and this is a buffalo defense that has allowed just 168 passing yards per game which ranks first defensively in the NFL. Play Buffalo ATS
5-Unit Play: #480 Los Angeles -9.5-110 over Las Vegas (Sunday, November 30, 2025, 4:25pm ET)
Take the Los Angeles Chargers ATS as my top NFL pick for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like the Chargers in this spot coming off the bye week. Los Angeles is hands down the superior team and this is a big bounce back spot for them coming off a blow-out loss at Jacksonville by 29 points so they will definitely come ready to play at home Sunday. These two teams met at Las Vegas back on September 15th with the Chargers coming away with a 20-9 victory and I do expect them to step up defensively once again especially at home. This is a Las Vegas team that has really struggled dropping five straight games and they were held scoreless in their second last road game which was against Kansas City where they gave up 31 points. Las Vegas has averaged just 268 yards per game this season including just 79.5 rushing yards per game averaging just 15 points per game. Play Los Angeles ATS
6-Unit Play: #484 New England -7.5-110 over New York (Monday, December 1, 2025, 8:15pm ET)
Take New England ATS as my top NFL pick for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I really like New England a lot at home in this spot. New England has averaged 359 yards per game this season including 247 passing yards per game and 112 rushing yards per game and this is a giant defense that has struggled against the run allowing 157 rushing yards per game which ranks last defensively in the NFL. New York has allowed 27.8 points per game defensively this season and New England has averaged 26.5 points per game. Defensively New England is a much better team as well allowing just 301 yards per game this season including just 87.7 rushing yards per game which rank second defensively in the NFL allowing just 18.8 points per game. I expect a dominant victory from New England at home. Play New England ATS
Scott Spreitzer
3-Unit Play: Take 307 Chiefs -3 over Cowboys (4:30 p.m., Thursday, November 27)I’m betting this line is an overreaction to the Cowboys’ come from behind win over the Eagles. We had Dallas as our top play on Sunday and expected a Dallas win. But I don’t like their secondary and this is a game where Rashee Rice can put his speed to use getting behind Cowboy DBs. The Chiefs’ offense is a step-up in level of competition from what Dallas faced last week. Kansas City beat Indy by a FG but the final score hardly told the story. The Chiefs finished with 33 first downs to 10 for the Colts. They out-gained Indy 494-255, averaging 5.7 yards per play. A fumble and a fluke INT kept the score much closer than it should have been. This line is too short in my opinion. I’m laying the points with the Chiefs. Happy Thanksgiving! Scott Spreitzer.
1-Unit Play: Take 474 Browns +5 over 49ers (1 p.m., Sunday, November 30)
I’m taking the points with Cleveland. The Browns are 4-1 ATS at home this season and while they’re 2-3 SU, all three losses were by one score and could have landed in the win column if not for a couple plays in each game. The defense tallied 20 sacks in those games and currently lead the NFL with a 13.8% sack rate. You know they’re bringing the pass rush against Brock Purdy. The SFO QB threw three ugly picks on Monday and looked like he had a tough time planting, which leads me to believe his toe hasn’t healed. Shedeur Sanders wasn’t great last week but he was decent and he brings a deep pass threat into play. The offense had a much different feel and much better energy with Sanders behind center. I believe we’ll see plenty of Quinshon Judkins, a few downfield attempts from Sanders, and a lot of Cleveland’s defense in the Niner offensive backfield. I’m taking the points with the Browns. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 482 Commanders +5.5 over Broncos (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
After escaping three 50-50 games in a row by a FG in each, I’m betting the Broncos struggle a bit in this one. Six of their last seven wins came by a grand total of 16 points and I don’t trust the passing game on the road. Bo Nix has completed 75 of 131, 57% of his passes in his last four games away from home. Washington has had some tough luck, losing Jayden Daniels, and suffering three one-score losses. If a few plays had gone the other way, they’d be in the playoff hunt. The Commanders can run the football, 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game which should keep the pressure off the passing game. Finally, Denver’s offense has had the second most three-and-outs in the NFL and have run the fourth fewest plays in opponents’ territory. Denver is 2-5 ATS as chalk this season and have not won a single game away from Mile High City by more than four points, including a 13-11 win as a 7-point favorite against the Jets at a neutral site. I’m taking the points with the Commanders on Sunday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
7-Unit Play - (308) Dallas Cowboys +3.5 -115 over Kansas City Chiefs (11/27 | 4:30PM EST) Everyone is quoting the trend that visiting thanksgiving favorites are 25-1 SU and 20-6 ATS since 2004. I don't care about that stuff. The Chiefs have been inconsistent all season, and continue to be priced based on name alone. There is something off with this team, and it showed last week once again. They needed overtime despite out-gaining the Colts 494-255. This is a short week after overtime, and the historic data on such a situation is about as terrible as you could imagine. For example; anytime we have a team coming off an overtime game with less than five days of rest; they are just 7-26 ATS. This falls to 0-7 ATS when listed as road chalk! The Cowboys pulled off the comeback win last week (which we cashed big on) and we're staying on the train. Choo Choo!4-Unit Play - (310) Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens u52.5 -115 (11/27 | 8:20PM EST) The Bengals put up a fight but dropped a close 20-26 decision to the Patriots last Sunday, where they moved the ball okay with 20 points but got hammered on defense again, allowing 26 while struggling to convert thirds at just 23.1% and coughing up the ball in key spots - that lines up with their season-long issues, giving up a brutal 32.7 points per game (dead last in the league). The Ravens, on the flip side, cruised to a 23-10 win over the Jets, leaning on that stingy D to hold 'em to 10 while grinding out 23 on offense with a solid 18.2% on thirds but nothing flashy - it highlights their balanced attack at 25 PPG but a defense that's clamped down to 23.7 allowed, good for top-10 in the NFL. With Joe Burrow back from that turf toe injury but maybe not fully sharp yet after missing time and just getting activated this week, expect some rust in this quick turnaround on a short week - he's been full go in practice, but the Bengals' O could start slow against Baltimore's front that's top-20 in pressures and forces tough yards per play. Advanced metrics scream under here: both squads hover around 38-39% on third downs, and with Cincinnati's D ranking near the bottom in red zone efficiency while the Ravens minimize big plays (fewest explosive rushes allowed lately), this rivalry renewal on Thanksgiving should turn into a defensive battle. ATS trends for totals lean under for Bengals road games (5-6 to the under overall) and Ravens at home (6-5 under), especially with the line at 52 looking juiced after some high-scoring outliers earlier in the year. Lock in the under 52: Burrow's uncertainty and these stout fronts keep it grindy, projecting something like a 23-20 Ravens win in a low-scorer.
3-Unit Play - (468) Carolina Panthers +10.5 -110 over Los Angeles Rams (11/30 | 1:00PM EST) The Rams are getting all the love in the market after another impressive win last time out. They're 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) but this is a little too far. The Panthers are 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS themselves and find themselves in a buy-low spot after two awful offensive performances in their last three. Are they worse than their record indicates? Probably. Should they be double-digit underdogs at home? We don't think so.
1-Unit Play - (468) Carolina Panthers +500 (ML Sprinkle) over Los Angeles Rams (11/30 | 1:00PM EST) The Rams are getting all the love in the market after another impressive win last time out. They're 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) but this is a little too far. The Panthers are 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS themselves and find themselves in a buy-low spot after two awful offensive performances in their last three. Are they worse than their record indicates? Probably. Should they be double-digit underdogs at home? We don't think so.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 Green Bay at Detroit (1 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 27)This is a rematch from Week 1 of the NFL season and Detroit needs a better performance. If this game was on a full weeks rest I might think more about the 'under', but with both defenses only having a few days to prepare I like the offenses in these matchups. The Detroit defensive line was pushed around by the Giants offensive line last weekend, and the Packers will take advantage of that, especially on third down, which will keep drives alive. Both teams have playmakers that will shine here creating scoring opportunities. The Packers and the Lions have combined to go 11-11 versus the total this season, but Green Bay is 4-1 versus the total in away games, and the Lions have gone 'over' the total in two of their three Division games thus far. Take the 'over' as this game gets into the 50s with ease.
3-Unit Play. Take #309 Kansas City (-3.5) over Dallas (4:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 27)
The Chiefs have not been good on the road this season as they are just 1-3 ats, but the have dominated the NFC going 3-1 ATS. Dallas comes into this game off an emotional win versus the Eagles in which they came from behind by 21 points and will struggle with the physicality of the Chiefs on a short week. Kansas City is desperate, as the need as many wins as possible to try and catch the Chargers and the Broncos in the AFC West, or any of the teams ahead of them in the race for the AFC Wild Card. There are a lot of trends backing the Chiefs in this matchup as road favorites are 25-1 straight up and 20-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2004. Pat Mahomes loves to attack teams on short rest as he is 19-3 straight up versus tired teams. Dallas is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Thanksgiving games, and Dak Prescott is just 2-5 ATS on Turkey Day. Take the road team here.
7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 51.5 Cincinnati at Baltimore (8:20 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 27)
I typically don't take totals, especially two on the same card, BUT, I do take them on Thanksgiving. I have been very successful attacking totals for big plays on Thanksgiving, and I'm doing so again here. This game is going to be a shootout. Yes, the Ravens defense has looked better as of late, but its been against the likes of Dillion Gabriel, Sadeur Sanders, and Tyrod Taylor. The Ravens are now facing Joe Burrow, and Jamar Chase coming off a suspension. Add to that we have Chase Brown coming off his fifth straight 100 yards from scrimmage game, so the Bengals will be ready to attack this Ravens defense. Baltimore hasn't looked great offensively, but this Bengals defense is the perfect remedy for anything that ails you. The Bengals are 7-4 against the total this season while the Ravens are 4-2 against the total on their home field. The Ravens have also gone over the total in both of their Division games this year. These two teams have played 'over' the posted total in five straight matchups and the Ravens are 20-8 to the 'over' in their last 28 overall games. A field piece to this puzzle is we have some reverse line movement here as nearly 70 percent of the money is on the 'under' and yet the total has increased. The sharp play is the 'over' here and I'm not going to miss out.
Oh, and one more thing if this wasn't enough, no Hendrickson for the Bengals which means Lamar Jackson and the offense can breathe a little sigh of relief and have more time in the pocket.
5-Unit Play. Take #461 Houston (+4.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 30)
I am not sold on this line movement, and Danny Dimes is going to be running for his life Sunday. Yes, the Colts are a great home team as they are 4-1 ATS on their home field this season, but this Texans defense is fierce, and the Chiefs exposed Indy a bit last weekend. The Colts home ATS wins this year are over Miami, Las Vegas, Tennessee, and Denver, and if anyone remembers that Denver game, the Colts lost it, but then the Broncos suddenly got called for a 15 yard penalty on a missed FG and Indy got to kick again. Those teams are awful, and again, this Texans defense is about to run havoc on an Indy team that has a brutal schedule coming up. Indy has dominated all season long, but they are about to run into a gauntlet that includes Houston (2x), Jacksonville (2x), Seattle, and San Francisco. Houston has struggled away this season, but those games were absolutely brutal. The Texans played the Rams to a five point game, the Jags to a seven point game, and Seattle to an eight point game. This is just a great spot for Houston as they have had extended rest and are ready to give the Colts all they can handle.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
NFL-Thursday November 27th 2025-
7 Unit Play Take #306 Detroit -2.5 over Green Bay (1:00pm est):
Way too much is being made of Detroit's bad outing last Sunday versus New York. It was the classic sandwich spot for the Lions as they played that game between huge outings versus Philadelphia and Green Bay. Overall the Lions have the much better resume so far this season than the Packers and will be playing with some major revenge after their embarrassing opening game loss to Green Bay to start the year. Detroit's offense is at another level at home on the fast track of Ford Field where their weapons (Gibbs, Williams) seem to have another gear and that's evident again this season with the Lions averaging 34 points per game at home (34 last year) to 26 points a game while on the road.
Take Detroit minus the points.
NFL-
Sunday November 30th 2025-
5 Unit Play Take #482 Washington +5.5 over Denver (8:20pm est):
Denver is the biggest fraud in the league currently as they are nowhere near as good as their 9-2 overall record this season. The Broncos are just 2-5 overall against the spread this season in games they have been favored in. They have also took advantage of playing the 2nd easiest schedule in the league thus far as well.
Washington is off their much needed bye week and I think they looked a lot better defensively with head coach Dan Quinn taking over the play call duties on that side of the football in their previous game. The Commanders have had a hugely disappointing season thus far in 2025 but this nationally televised Sunday night game against the 9-2 Broncos gives them something to play for.
Take Washington plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #478 Pittsburgh +3.5 over Buffalo (4:25pm est):
I have felt all year that this Buffalo team is overrated. They come into this game just 7-4 on the season overall and keep in mind they have been favored or +1 in 10 of their 11 contests this year. This is the perfect spot over the years for Pittsburgh as they have been very good as home dogs under Mike Tomlin.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points here.
Thank you and good luck,
Jason Sharpe
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #309 Cincinnati Bengals @ BAL Ravens (UNDER 51.5 Total Points Scored) (8:20p.m, Thursday, November 27th)Cincinnati is coming off a very deceiving loss in their most recent matchup. We had Cincy as our 6-Unit Winner last Sunday and tuned into the entire game. Cincinnati was outplayed the entire game, and New England could not have played any worse. That game landed on a 20-26 final, and Cincy got the cover by a hook. Now all the speculation comes into play with Joe Burrow returning at the QB spot. Burrow is back along with his boy Chase. The public is going to feed on offensive points expectancy from the Bengals here, as Baltimore is allowing 23.7 points per game on average. The Bengals have a terrible defense, and we believe this is a perfect recipe for the under to come into play. This is going to be the chase game on Thanksgiving, as it kicks off at 8:20 Thanksgiving night. Everyone in the world is going to be on the Ravens with their 5-game winning streak and heavy race in the AFC North. We believe this to confuse the entire herd and see a full-blown defensive display. Everyone wants to bet the over, as it makes the game more enjoyable, especially on a holiday; nobody is wagering heavy money to suffer through an UNDER play all night. That’s where we come in and attack the market’s vulnerability. Let’s roll with the UNDER 51.5 points in this matchup, as we believe it to be a tight-scoring game.
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #313 Chicago Bears (+7) Over Philadelphia Eagles. (3:00p.m, Friday, November 28th)
This is the only game on the board today, and there is going to be massive public money bet on this game after a chase with 3 games that rolled out on Thursday. Chicago comes into this game 8-3 on the season and is on a 4-game winning streak. Chicago has all the momentum in the world and is absolutely rolling under head coach Ben Johnson. Chicago has put nearly all the missing pieces together, and despite them coming into this game banged up and short-rested, we believe momentum overtakes injury here. Chicago has given no reason why they should not be bet on, and catching 7 points here is a very heavy market push. This is set up as a trap, with Philadelphia coming off an outright 24-21 loss to Dallas last week. We believe the market has set up a trap, but this is one we have to run right through. Let’s bear down here with +7 and have an expectation for a Friday lone game upset!
Griffin Murphy
6 Unit Play - Take #463 ARI Cardinals (+2.5) Over TB Buccaneers. (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 30th)
Arizona comes into this game 3-8 on the season and currently on a 3-game losing streak. Arizona has dealt with Seattle, San Francisco, and Jacksonville in their 3 most recent matchups and has failed to cover the spread in all 3 of these games. It is safe to say, Arizona bettors are done with the Cardinals and have no faith in backing them here. We love this situation because the market has opened up its vulnerability. We are aware Tampa Bay has also lost 3 games in a row against New England, Buffalo, and the Rams. These are arguably 3 of the toughest teams in the NFL. The public will feed off this strength of schedule and look at this game with the full expectation that this is the game Tampa Bay unloads the beast. In our eyes, Tampa Bay is simply playing bad football and is in a rut. We believe this negative momentum is sustained for Tampa Bay, and Arizona should come out dialed in on the offensive side with Jacoby Brissett, who has 1800+ yards passing with just 6 starts on the year. Let’s roll with the Cardinals as the absolute public fade, as we believe they can win this one outright.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7 Unit – Take #471 ATL Falcons ML (-145) over NYJ Jets (12:00p.m, Sunday, November 30th)We kick off the NFL card with a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets, and as I like to say, the Falcons might just be the “worst best team” in football through 12 weeks. They sit at 4–7, but now with Kirk Cousins under center and another full week of reps with the starters, this offense finally has a little stability. Penix is out with an ACL injury, and Cousins stepped in last week and managed the game perfectly in their 24–10 win over the Saints on the road. On the other side, the Jets turn to backup Tyrod Taylor again. Yes, he threw for 200+ yards last week against Baltimore, but it still wasn’t enough. This Jets team has struggled throughout the season, losing key players early and never achieving consistency. They put up just 10 points in last week’s 23–10 loss to the Ravens, and nothing about this offense suggests a sudden breakthrough is coming. Both teams have similar defensive grades on paper, so the decisive factor in this game will be the ability of Atlanta's offense to produce the one or two big plays necessary for separation. Between Cousins’ experience and Bijan Robinson’s explosiveness in the backfield, the Falcons have more trustworthy weapons than this depleted Jets squad. I expect Atlanta to control the tempo and pick up their fifth win of the season. Take the Falcons over the Jets.
Take #471 ATL Falcons ML (-145) over NYJ Jets
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #309 CIN Bengals (+7) over BAL Ravens (-110) (8:20p.m, Thursday, November 27th)
We’ve got a classic AFC North showdown on Thanksgiving night as the Bengals head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Despite their record of 3-8, Cincinnati has proven to be a formidable opponent, demonstrating resilience in the face of injuries and inconsistency. They’re far more competitive than their record shows. Baltimore, meanwhile, has come back to life and now sits at 6–5, tied with the Steelers atop the division after ripping off five straight wins, including last week’s 23–10 victory over the Jets. The big storyline: the possible return of Joe Burrow. Nothing is confirmed yet, but knowing Burrow’s competitiveness, it wouldn’t shock me one bit if he suits up and plays the entire game. Even if he isn’t officially named the starter, Cincinnati has Flacco ready to go on standby, which already gives the Bengals a massive emotional lift heading into primetime. Division matchups always play tight, and Cincinnati is 2–1 in AFC North play this season. Their issue has been on the road, but this Bengals offense, with or without Burrow, can score on anyone. Although Baltimore's defense is formidable, the inconsistencies in the Ravens offense allow this game to remain closer than most anticipate. If Burrow gets the nod, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Cincinnati threaten the outright win. But the safe and smart approach here is taking the points. Grab the Bengals +7 on Thanksgiving night against the Ravens.
Take #309 CIN Bengals (+7) over BAL Ravens (-110)
Nick Menken
4 Unit – Take #313 CHI Bears (+7) over PHI Eagles (-110) (3:00p.m, Friday, November 28th)
We’ve got a Black Friday showdown in Philly as the Bears take on the Eagles. Chicago rolls in red-hot on a four-game winning streak, sitting at 8–3 and leading the NFC North. And yes before you call me a homer the Bears are playing like a first-place football team. Week after week, they keep finding ways to win. The Eagles match that record at 8–3 and sit atop the NFC East, but this is not the same Philly offense we saw last season. They’ve been out of rhythm for most of the year. Last week was the perfect example: they started fast, Jalen Hurts looked sharp early… then the entire operation fell apart in the second half as they blew a 21-point lead to Dallas. Chicago, meanwhile, has shown they can win in every style necessary shootout, grind-out, ugly defensive battle, you name it. They hung 47 on the Bengals in a 47–42 road win, then a week later won a 19–17 slugfest over the Vikings. Last week they beat the Steelers with almost no linebackers available. That’s coaching, discipline, and belief. Ben Johnson has brought new life into this locker room, and these guys are playing like they expect to win every single week. Look Philly will absolutely come out motivated after last week’s collapse. Their defense will show up. This has all the makings of a low-scoring, grind-it-out game in the cold. But the Bears will be in this one from start to finish. They match up well, they’re confident, and they’re not backing down from the “Super Bowl champs.” With a full touchdown in our back pocket, this is a great spot. Take the Bears +7 on Friday in Philly.
Take #313 CHI Bears (+7) over PHI Eagles (-110)
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #474 CLE Browns (+5) over SF 49ers (-110) (1:00p.m, Sunday, November 30th)
I’m jumping on the bandwagon here with the Browns. Sanders has been doubted by the league, the organization, and anyone else who criticizes this kid. I said it on Prop Madness. Sanders is a gamer, and he shows up when the lights are bright. The 49ers’ offense is going to have a hard enough time moving the ball against this defense as it is. I’m a believer in Sanders, and I think the Browns win this game outright. But the official play is Browns +5 at home with Sanders leading the way.
Take #474 CLE Browns (+5) over SF 49ers (-110)
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take GB Packers vs DET Lions (Over 48 Total Points) (-110) (1:00p.m, Thursday, November 27th)
We kick off our Thanksgiving slate with the Packers and Lions, and I’m loving this spot. Indoors, two offenses with enough firepower to send this total flying. The Lions just hung 34 last week. Yes, it was against the Giants, but points are points. Green Bay put up 23 in their win over the Vikings, and now they head into Detroit for a massive NFC North matchup. In Detroit, in a dome, in a divisional game with stakes? I’m expecting fireworks early. Start your Thanksgiving off right take the Over 48 in Packers vs. Lions.
Take GB Packers vs DET Lions (Over 48 Total Points) (-110)
Nick Menken
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