Well, well, well. It looks like Carson Palmer's performance may have punched some holes into my theory about the Cincinnati Bengals this year. The Bengals pure passer returned from a potentially crippling knee injury in just eight short months and looked outstanding on Monday night in a preseason game against Green Bay.

My original thought was that the Bengals were due to take a step back this year in order to take a step forward next season. I believed their defense is still soft and that some off-field issues will distract them from their stated goal of a Super Bowl trip. Their schedule is more difficult and they aren't going to sneak up on anyone this season.

But then, like so many thousands of Bengals fans, all that concern and doubt appeared to be put to bed by Palmer's smooth performance against the Packers.

Not quite. If Palmer plays all 16 games this season then I think that the Bengals have a legit shot at repeating as the AFC North champs. But that's still a big if. His knee was fine for a couple of quarters, but, like it or not, it's going to have a big bull's-eye on it this season. Also, I do still have massive questions about their depth and their defensive capabilities. And if we see Anthony Wright at any time this year it's going to be a bloodbath.

Also, karma concerns still linger. Five Bengals had run-ins with the law in the offseason. They drafted two more players (A.J. Nicholson and Ahmad Brooks) with checkered pasts. And now their one true hitter, Odell Thurman, is being forced to miss the first four games of the regular season because he violated the league's substance abuse policy.

I'm sticking by my original prediction that the Bengals will be a team to fade this season. But the more sharp throws that Palmer makes, the more dull my resolve will become.

Here's Doc's 2006 Cincinnati Bengals Preview:
2005 Record: 11-6 (5-4 home, 6-2 road)
2005 Rankings: 6th offense (5th pass, 11th rush); 28th defense (26th pass, 20th rush).
2005 Against the Spread: 8-9 (2-7 home, 6-2 road); 8-9 vs. total (4-5 h, 4-4 r)
2006 Odds: 22/1 to win SB, 10/1 to win NFC, 1.5/1 to win AFC North, 9.0 wins O/U
2006 Strength of Schedule: 4th (.542 opp. win %)
Key stat: Over the past three seasons the Bengals have a +30 turnover differential. They were +2 in '03, +4 in '04, and +24 last season. It's not luck, but it's also not reliable.

Returning starters: 19 (11 offense, 8 defense)
Key acquisitions: Sam Adams, DT (from Buffalo); Dexter Jackson, S (from T.B.); Anthony Wright, QB (from Baltimore); Frostee Rucker, DE (draft); A.J. Nicholson, LB (draft); Jonathan Joseph, CB (draft).
Key departures: Jon Kitna, QB; Kim Herring, S; Matt Schobel, TE.

Offense: Efficiency. That's the word on the Bengals. If Palmer is healthy, they have the best offense in the league, hands down. There are no weaknesses. They go four-deep with quality receivers, and have a legitimate stud, go-to guy. The offensive line will have the same five starters for the third straight year. They have a running back capable of a 1,400-yard, 10-TD season. They have blocking and receiving tight ends, third down backs, and capable fill-in linemen. But all of this revolves around Palmer. He's the ringleader.
Defense: Sam Adams will help a rush defense that surrendered 4.3 yards per rush. But that's not enough. The Bengals are in the North, a smash mouth division that relies on toughness and physicality. Cincinnati's front seven is not nearly strong enough to win games for the team. If you want to succeed in the playoffs, that is exactly what you need. I think they're soft and their linebackers are small. The addition of Jackson and Joseph will bolster a secondary that saw 62 percent of opponent's passes completed against it last year.
X-factor: Julie Di Rossi. That was the name of the 44-year-old Houston woman that donated her Achilles tendon for Palmer's knee. She was killed by a drunk driver and the Bengals' season relies on her gift.
Outlook: This defense is not good enough to win a championship. But the offense might be. We don't want to get too carried away with their maiming of Green Bay the other night. It was impressive, but not so impressive where I think they'll be better than a 9-7 or 10-6 team at best. With Palmer and with that defense the Bengals have a lot of potential Over plays - New England, San Diego, Oakland and Indianapolis. But don't expect the Bengals to cover a lot of big totals just because of Palmer. Against a team like Cleveland or Tampa Bay they need the other team to put some points up. And while it may seem as if Cincy's defense might oblige, remember that with a soft front seven teams will be looking to milk the clock and control the ball to keep Chad Johnson and Co. off the field. If they succeed, that means an Under.

Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com.