The Michigan Wolverines are likely to once again repeat as Big Ten Champions. They seem to have all the ingredients of a championship team. They posses a strong offense that can stretch the field and a defense built to stop the run. Michigan is certainly my clear-cut choice to run away with the conference.
However as I look into my crystal ball, I see as many as five other teams that have a chance to contend in the conference if certain things work in their favor. The main question mark that many teams need to have answered, including Michigan, is consistent quarterback play. Eight new play callers will take over their respective teams. The guys who can establish consistency and the ones that can make plays when asked to do so will likely make the difference between the teams at the top and bottom of the conference. We suspect that most teams with new quarterbacks will just ask them to not lose the game by making a key turnover. These teams would like to establish the run and throw the ball when they choose to and not when the defense has forced them to. But, as we all know, most teams in the Big Ten are built around stopping the run and at certain times during the season the quarterback will have to step up and make a play in order to lead his team to victory.
Here is how I see the conference playing out: Michigan is at the top and I feel that if they can survive a mid-season challenge in West Lafayette they can run the table and end up in the Orange Bowl playing for the National Title. The only teams that I feel cannot contend in this league are Indiana and Illinois. These two teams may pull an upset or two over the course of an eight-game schedule but they cannot win consistently week in and week out. After that everybody is pretty bunched together where a game or two could determine the difference between playing on New Year's Day or playing your final game in Texas in December. I think Northwestern will be the most improved team this season and both Purdue and Iowa will see a big drop-off compared to years past.
Here is how I predict the standing will look like in late December:
2004 Doc's Big Ten Projected Standing
TEAM | Big Ten Record | Overall Record |
Michigan | 7-1 | 10-1 |
Wisconsin | 6-2 | 9-2 |
Minnesota | 5-3 | 8-3 |
Michigan State | 5-3 | 8-4 |
Northwestern | 4-4 | 7-5 |
Purdue | 4-4 | 6-5 |
Iowa | 4-4 | 6-5 |
Ohio State | 4-4 | 6-5 |
Penn State | 2-6 | 4-7 |
Illinois | 2-6 | 4-7 |
Indiana | 1-7 | 3-8 |
The following is Doc's detailed analysis of each Big Ten team highlighting their strengths, weaknesses, and strength of schedule.
Michigan Wolverines (10-1, 7-1)
The big question mark facing the Wolverines will be John Navarre's replacement at quarterback. Wolverine fans rode Navarre hard throughout his playing career and now would give anything to have him back in uniform. Head Coach Lloyd Carr appears to be leaning toward former De La Salle standout Matt Gutierrez. One cannot argue with his high school playing career where he went undefeated as a starter. Michigan's running backs are also unproven with the loss of Chris Perry to the NFL, but they are loaded at wide receiver and linebacker. Michigan has players like Braylon Edwards, who has the potential of winning the Heisman Trophy.
Strengths: No question, the Wolverines strength is at the wide receiver position. Along with Edwards are Jason Avant and Tim Massaquuoi. These two also have a chance to be all-conference selections and will give opposing defenses all that they can handle. The offensive line, although not as experienced as last season, can be very productive if they can work together as a unit, allowing Michigan's traditional running game to resurface. The Wolverines defense should be rock solid with returning linebackers Woods, Mc Clintock, and Reid. They will be tough to score any points on.
Weakness: A recurring problem for most Big Ten teams -- and certainly for Michigan --will be the play of the quarterback. To win a National Championship, consistent quarterback play is needed, so Gutierrez needs to step-up and play to his potential. The only other question mark the Wolves have is special teams, which has cost them games in previous years may resurface and bite them once again.
Best Bet: September 25, 2004 vs. Iowa. The Wolves will not need any motivation for this game as the Hawks have beaten them the last two seasons. Michigan's defense should dominate in this Big Ten opener.
Favorable Line Loser: October 9, 2004 vs. Minnesota. Minnesota did everything right but win the game in last year's meeting and will look for revenge. The Gophers gave up 31 fourth quarter points to lose a game they dominated for three quarters. A double-digit point spread is possible and I suspect this to be close game that may go down to the wire.
Wisconsin Badgers (9-2, 6-2)
A team that returns fifteen senior starters would expect to contend for a conference championship. Certainly that is the goal for this group of Badgers. Loaded with experience and talent on both sides of the ball this team should challenge Michigan for the title. Assuming they get past a tough road day game in Tucson, this team has the potential to run the table because the Wolverines are nowhere to be found on the schedule. But I am realistic and expect the Badgers to have a couple of slip-ups either in Columbus or East Lansing and finish the season with a 9-2 record and a New Year's Day Bowl Game.
Strengths: Assuming Anthony Davis can stay healthy expect the Badgers to have their traditional strong running game. With Davis as the starter, expect Coach Barry Alvarez to utilize back-ups Dwayne Smith and Booker Stanley for a great change of pace format. Both had experience last season and will be ready to go when their name is called. The defense is what will prove to be the success of this team. They return six starters led by Jim Leonhard and will be an extremely tough team to run the ball against because their defensive line may be the best in the conference.
Weakness: The quarterback position will be the biggest question mark for this team. Jim Sorgi is playing for the Indianapolis Colts and that leaves Matt Schabert and John Stocco in competition for the job. Schabert looked horrendous last year against Iowa and because of that the Badgers will probably start Stocco. Coach Alvarez would like to see a strong running game, which would allow him to dictate the passing game. But we all know that sometime during the season the quarterback is going to have to step-up and make a play to help his team get out of a tough situation. I suspect Stocco will be up to the challenge and will get much better as the season progresses.
Best Bet: October 9, 2004 at Ohio State. The Badgers have won in Columbus in the two contests and the Buckeyes should be favored once again. Coach Alvarez thrives under this type of situation and will have his team primed for an upset.
Favorable Line Loser: November 13, 2004 at Michigan State. The Badgers may only have one loss when these two teams square off and I suspect the number will be low. The favorite in this series is 9-2 ATS over the last eleven games played and I think the Badgers will leave East Lansing with a loss. Michigan State would like to pay the Badgers back for the pounding layed on them last year when the score ended up 56-21.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3, 5-3)
Most experts predict this team will improve the most in the Big Ten this season. It is hard to argue with them since the Gophers return both running backs, who last season combined for over 2,300 yards. Those two compliment each other nicely. The Gophers will feature a defense that will return seven starters including five of their front seven. Minnesota starts out with its usual cupcakes at home and should be 5-0 before heading into Ann Arbor. I expect the Gophers early success to be the catapult to a productive season and a possible New Year's Day Bowl Game.
Strengths: Coach Glen Mason is a firm believer in a strong running game and this year he has the horses to back him up. Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney may be the best 1-2 combination in the country and should not disappoint. Both averaged around six yards a carry and I feel that they will produce similar numbers this season. The defense should be improved this season and will be led by DE Darrell Reid, the team's sack leader from last season. Expect the D to progress upon its 22 points per game allowed last season because of the ball control style played by the offense.
Weakness: The main weakness facing the Gophers will be the play at the quarterback position. They plan on starting Bryan Cupito, who played in all 13 games last season, mainly as a holder. He will not be asked to do much because of the strong running game, but will be hard pressed to match the numbers put up by Abdul-Khaliq. Abdul-Khaliq threw 17 TD's and had only 5 interceptions. If Cupito can come anywhere near those numbers expect the Gophers to reach their potential and challenge for the Big Ten Title.
Best Bet: September 18, 2004 at Colorado State. Colorado State will be coming off back-to-back pounding against Colorado and USC and will not be able to withstand to running game of the Gophers. Expect a low number and a Gopher blowout win.
Favorable Line Loser: October 23, 2004 at Illinois. Minnesota has trouble winning in Champaign and I feel they may enter the game as double-digit favorites. Taking this game lightly will result in a tight game decided by a late field goal.
Michigan State Spartans (8-4, 5-3)
The Spartans have always been a difficult team to predict and nothing is more evident then their 2002 season when they were ranked in the preseason top five and finished the season with a horrendous 4-8 record which led to the firing of Coach Bobby Williams. This team always has the tendency to tank a game following a difficult loss the previous week. But Coach John L. Smith is trying to put an end to these tendencies and he did turn the program around last season, going 8-5. Expect more improvement this season as the Spartans hope to finish near the top in the Big Ten standings.
Strengths: The strength on this team lies in its defense, which last season shaved off 10 points per game compared to its 2002 campaign. This unit is led by senior Clifford Dukes who record seven sacks last season and will need to put up similar numbers this season. The Spartans also return both specialists led by kicker Dave Rayner who scored 105 points last season.
Weakness: The weakness on the team will be its ability to replace Jeff Smoker at the quarterback position. Drew Stanton, who was injured in last season's Alamo Bowl, is expected to get the nod and, unlike other signal callers in the conference, he will be asked to make plays throwing the ball. Michigan State only rushed for 1,266 yards collectively and must improve upon that number in order to win games this season. Expect Michigan State to be in a bunch of low scoring games decided late by a key play.
Best Bet: September 18, 2004 vs. Notre Dame. Michigan State has only lost once to Notre Dame in the last seven years and this year should be no exception. The Irish will be coming off an emotional game against Michigan and I suspect a low number and a big Michigan State win.
Favorable Line Loser: November 20, 2004 at Penn State. The Spartans will be coming off four tough games and there will be a letdown at State College. Penn State may need this win to ensure a bowl game and they just might get it against this Spartan team.
Northwestern Wildcats (7-5, 4-4)
Coach Randy Walker decided to play numerous freshman and sophomores during the 2002 season and it appears that investment has paid dividends, as the Wildcats should be contenders this season. The only thing that may hold them back this season is their schedule. Nevertheless, I expect Northwestern to be in the thick of things and to possibly pull out a double-digit underdog upset late in the season.
Strengths: The strength of this team lies with its offensive line. The Cats return all five starters from last season and the spread offense should be in full-throttle. Brett Basanez also returns as the signal caller and expect him to improve upon his passing statistics, which were terrible last season. A year of experience will make him more comfortable in the offense and his statistics should reflect that.
Weakness: The Wildcats will need to find a replacement for last season's offensive go-to guy, Jason Wright. Wright did everything for the Cats and finished out his career with 1,388 yards on the ground and 21 touchdowns. Noah Herron will try and fill his shoes and was pretty productive last season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The other weakness for this team is its schedule. They play all the heavyweights in the Big Ten and also tough non-conference games against TCU, ASU, and Hawaii.
Best Bet: September 11, 2004 vs. Arizona State. The Sun Devils have a terrible road record under Dirk Koetter and will be undefeated going into this game. The number will be low and the Cats will pull out a victory.
Favorable Line Loser: November 6, 2004 at Penn State. On its last trip to State College, Northwestern did not score a point and I feel a similar result will happen this season against a team desperate for wins.
Purdue Boilmakers (6-5, 4-4)
Purdue will jump right into competitive play this season with a tough non-conference opener vs. Syracuse. A team that lost eight starters on defense may take a step back this season. However, a favorable home schedule should keep the Boilers in every game and if the can achieve some early success that may parlay into a successful season with the end result being a return to the Citrus Bowl.
Strengths: Unlike other teams in the Big Ten, Purdue does not have an issue at quarterback. Kyle Orton is everyone's preseason player of the year and a similar performance to last season should be enough to fill-up his bedroom with hardware. He has a plethora of skill players returning as well with Jerod Void and Taylor Stubblefield. Both players nearly reached 1,000 yards at their respected positions and this year they will reach those platforms.
Weakness: The weakness for this team lies on the defense side of the ball. Coach Joe Tiller has always been an offensive minded coach and may need to outscore teams this season to win conference games. DT Brent Grover, who is the only returning starter in the front seven, will lead the defense. Expect high scoring games all season long for Purdue. If something should happen to Orton that may be the end of this team, since he was the only player to throw a pass last season.
Best Bet: October 16, 2004 vs. Wisconsin. The Badgers will be coming off a tough road game in Columbus and will be hard-pressed to beat the Boilers, who covered their last six home games in 2003.
Favorable Line Loser: October 2, 2004 at Notre Dame. The Irish will be up for revenge as the home team in this series is 7-2 over the last nine meetings.
Iowa Hawkeyes (6-5, 4-4)
The last two seasons have elevated the Hawkeyes into the conference elite and this season Head Coach Kirk Ferentz will have his work cut out for him in order to maintain that status. All of last season's skill players are gone and the Hawkeyes will have to find answers early due to a tough non-conference game in Tempe. I see Iowa taking a step back this season due to their schedule, but look for the Hawks to rejoin the elite starting in 2005.
Strengths: The strength of the Hawkeyes will lie in its defense. The Hawks return seven starters led by MLB Abdul Hodge, who led the league last season with 141 tackles. Running back Jermelle Lewis played well in limited action last season and averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season. He needs a similar performance to allow Drew Tate a comfort zone at quarterback.
Weakness: The Hawkeyes have two unproven sophomores at quarterback in Jason Manson and Tate. The nod will be given to Tate to start the season but any ineffectiveness will result in him be replaced by Manson. The Hawks threw more than 300 times last season with Nate Chandler, but this season they may focus more on the running game to offset their inexperience. With this in mind, expect opponents to force Drew to make plays early in the game.
Best Bet: October 16, 2004 vs. Ohio State. Iowa will be well rested for this game coming off a bye and will be seeking revenge from last season's tough defeat. Expect the Hawks to get this win and improve upon their bowl chances.
Favorable Line Loser: October 30, 2004 at Illinois. This will be Iowa's second consecutive road game and will be a tough game coming off of Penn State. Illinois is 5-3-1 ATS vs. Iowa of late and I suspect a possible straight up win.
Ohio State Buckeyes (6-5, 4-4)
The Buckeyes have lost the majority of the players that were responsible for their 25-2 record over the past two seasons. This will be a rebuilding year in Columbus and a poor non-conference showing could keep the Buckeyes out of post-season play. They will need to establish the traditional running game with two veteran backs and an entirely revamped offensive line. The Bucks must play ball control offense in order to shorten the game and keep their young defense off the field. Our reports from Columbus state that the talent is there, but I wonder if their luck in close games will once again resurface.
Strengths: Ohio State does not have experience on either side of the ball but does posses outstanding individual talent. The defense will be led by preseason player of the year Dustin Fox. Last season, his defensive unit allowed only 2.0 yards per carry rushing, and he can single handedly help his team achieve those numbers again. The offense will be led by Lydell Ross who needs to go over the 1,000-yard mark in order for the offense to be efficient. Then throw in kicker Mike Nugent, who rarely misses, and this team may be able to score some points.
Weakness: The weakness could come on either side of the ball but certainly has to start with the quarterback position. Justin Zwick will take over for Craig Krenzel and will finally get a chance to show if the hype about him in high school is valid. The defense will have to replace five of the front seven and will look for big plays to stop drives by opposing offenses. These five that were lost to graduation made up the foundation of the Buckeyes success in recent years.
Best Bet: October 23, 2004 vs. Indiana. The Hoosiers average 9.97 points per game against the Bucks and I suspect a rout in Columbus on Homecoming.
Favorable Line Loser: September 4, 2004 vs. Cincinnati. The Bearcats have a new coach in former Buckeye defensive coordinator Mark Dantonio. I believe this will be a competitive game between two in-state rivals. The spread will be high but the season opener for both teams will keep this game close.
Penn State Nittany Lions (2-6, 4-7)
Penn State has had one winning record in the last four years and I believe this year's squad will struggle to reach that platform. Their entire receiving corps has left, leaving back-up quarterback Michael Robinson as number one on the depth chart. The defensive line is undersized and I suspect more rumblings about Head Coach Joe Paterno's job will resurface. The odds makers have yet to adjust to the declining Nittany Lions. Around Vegas the word is that Paterno still has value, but I feel value with that word has passed.
Strengths: While Penn State lost most of its playmakers on offense from last season, the good news was that none of them really made game changing plays. Their leading rusher and receiver from last season did not total 500 yards apiece so they can only get better at those positions. The Lions do have experience at quarterback in 3rd year starter Zach Mills, who at times has shown flashes of greatness. Mills just needs to play within himself and not make critical turnovers that have plagued him and his team in the past. The secondary turned in some good numbers against the pass last season and will be lead once again by FS Chris Harrell.
Weakness: This can be one of many facets but I will start with their defensive line. They are under-sized with most linebackers weighing around 200 lbs. They could not stop the run at all last season allowing more than 200 yards per game and this has forced the coaching staff to switch from a 5-2 front to a 4-3 front. Nonetheless, they again will struggle in stopping the run this year. If you cannot stop the run in the Big Ten, that usually spells disaster for the entire season. I will be keeping an eye on this team because they may not even reach my light expectations.
Best Bet: September 18, 2004 vs. Central Florida. The Lions need this game with back-to-back conference road games looming or they may be stuck on one win for quite some time. Paterno is 4-2 SU in games before the conference opener over the last six seasons.
Favorable Line Loser: November 13, 2004 at Indiana. This may develop into a take your pick situation but I have isolated November 13 against Indiana. Indiana may be searching for its first conference win and I believe they will get it in a high scoring shootout. These teams combined for over 64 points per game since 1993. Keep a close eye on the total; anything around 50 may be worth playing the over.
Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6, 4-7)
Illinois opens the season with four home games and all of them are winnable. Then the schedule takes a turn for the worse and one win may be all that they can come by the rest of the season. The Illini do have most of their skill players back including Jon Beutjer, who completed 63 percent of his passing attempts last season. He alone will not be enough to overcome a defense that yielded over 30 points per game last season. This team will succeed or fail based upon their performance.
Strengths: The strength of this team has to be its wide receiving corps. They return eight guys who caught more than 10 passes from last season. Oddly enough, the team leader at this position Kelvin Hayden, was moved to cornerback to help a defense in need of a face-lift. But they still have Lonnie Hurst and Melvin Bryant, who can a present challenge when teams try and cover them with DB's. The Illini's running backs have experience but team leader Ibrahim Halsey needs to improve upon his 3.8 yards per carry to be effective in the Big Ten.
Weakness: The weakness in this year's team is the defense. Giving up more than 30 points per game will not produce many wins and last years' team needed an overhaul. The good news is that only four starters return from that team and the new core cannot be any worse then what they were. The only way that this team can be successful is to play a bend but don't break style and try to avoid giving up the big play. Illinois has hired a new defensive coordinator in Mike Mallary so at least they are making an effort to correct the problem. If this team can find their defense, they may be a surprise and I would certainly reevaluate them.
Best Bet: October 30, 2004 vs. Iowa. The Illini may be in a five-game losing streak when this week approaches and I suspect they will put forth a good effort on Homecoming. They will be double-digit dogs but this game will not be decided until late in the fourth quarter.
Favorable Line Loser: October 23, 2004 at Minnesota. This will be right in the middle of playing Big Ten powerhouses and the Illini have not played well at the Metrodome going 1-6 ATS since 1988. Minnesota will be a big favorite but that should not matter because of the Gophers ability to run the ball effectively.
Indiana Hoosiers (1-7, 3-8)
Gerry DiNardo enters his third season at the helm of the Hoosiers and it appears they have yet to turn the corner. They do however return nine starters on offense and I feel they are a year away from returning to a bowl game. Their main concern is the defense, which allowed 39 points per game last season. A similar performance this season may shutout the Hoosiers completely in the win column. Therefore, it is essential that this team win its first game at home against Central Michigan. A loss here and this team may not win for quite some time. However, the Hoosiers will offer value in betting, as they will be a sizable underdog in the majority of their games played. With loads of experience, Indiana may be able to stay with some of these teams.
Strengths: The strength is the experience on both the offense and the defense. The Hoosiers return sixteen starters from last season and are led by running back BenJarvis Green-Ellis, who had nearly 1,000 yards last season. Their Quarterback is former Irish starter, Matt Lovecchio, who must have some ability if Notre Dame recruited him. LoVecchio needs to step up and make plays because their defense will have trouble stopping teams.
Weakness: Just because the defense is experienced does not mean it is productive. New defensive coordinator Joe Cullen would like to play a more aggressive style where the Hoosiers attack and force tempo. But I have heard this all too often and will not believe it until I actually see it. NT Jodie Clemons, who had six sacks last season, will lead the defense. He will need to double that production for this unit to have any chance for success.
Best Bet: September 18, 2004 at Kentucky. I suspect Kentucky will be a heavy favorite and the Hoosiers will be up for this border war battle. The game will be in reach for the Hoosiers until late in the fourth quarter.
Favorable Line Loser: November 6, 2004 at Illinois. This may develop into a take your pick circumstance because the Hoosiers will be blown out of many games, but I feel Illinois will definitely be on that list. Indiana should be coming off five straight losses and will be waiting for this season to end when these two teams meet.
Overall Expectations:
This is an unusual year in the Big Ten with so many teams changing quarterbacks. How these new quarterbacks play will give a great indication about the success of failure of the team. Therefore, I will be keeping a close eye on non-conference games as the new QBs get their feet wet. Since most teams open up with cupcakes at home, it is imperative that the new players leadership. If they struggle against weak teams, I would suspect that to carry over into conference play and hurt their team's chances of winning games.
Teams like Michigan, Northwestern, and Ohio State, which play tough non-conferences schedules, need to be ready to go in order to preserve their season. An early loss at Notre Dame could shatter the Wolverines chance for a spot in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State will have it first true non-conference road tests in three years as the team travels to Raleigh on September 18, 2004. The Wolfpack will remember last season's OT loss and will look to pay back the Bucks. And finally Northwestern may be the most improved team, but their schedule is very tough this season. There are no cupcake non-conference games on this schedule and this team needs to focus right out of the gate or it could all come crashing down on them.
In conclusion, if Michigan falters and does not live up to expectations, this could be one of the tightest races in quite some time. The stronger teams in the conference like Wisconsin and Michigan State have tough Big Ten road schedules. Whereas, teams like Iowa, who I feel will take a step-back this season, have favorable home schedules. Therefore, a 5-3-conference record may put you in a tie for second place. This makes it fun to handicap and I will be on a few teams early in the season before the line-makers have had a chance to adjust to a team's ability. Join me as together we will have another productive and enjoyable year.
Best of Luck,