This is the time of the year when the cream rises in NFL office pools. People can be in or near the lead in the first half of the season due to some lucky guesses, but in the middle of the season skill and insight should take over from dumb luck. With that in mind, let's take a look at this week's games. Remember, we are picking straight up, not against the spread.

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N.Y. Jets at Buffalo - Both of these teams need a win to stay in the heart of the AFC East race. The Bills have owned the Jets recently, and they have played well at home. The Jets haven't been great on the road. Take the Bills.

Detroit at Chicago - I'm not going to over-think this one. There are some concerns with the Bears, but the Lions have been truly, unbelievably awful and there is no sign that they are going to change that. The Chicago defense should own the Lions, and the Lions' D has made every QB they have faced look like superstars. Take the Bears.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati - As bad as the Lions have been, I would make the argument that the Bengals are the worst team in the league. The reasoning is simple - the Lions should be bad and they are, but the Bengals have far more talent than they are exhibiting. It takes a bad team to waste talent. Jacksonville has problems of their own. But they'll get a win here to keep things on track. Take the Jaguars.

Baltimore at Cleveland - This is a much tougher game to pick than it would have been a month ago when the Browns were struggling badly. Baltimore won big the first time these teams played this year, but Cleveland is much better now, and they are at home after two weeks away. This one should be entertaining. Take the Browns.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - Tampa Bay could use some consistency, but they are a pretty good team. The Chiefs really, really aren't. Home field won't be even for Kansas City. Take the Bucs.

Houston at Minnesota - This is only the second time that these two teams have ever met. Minnesota finally showed some offense last week, but they don't have the swagger that Houston has had in the last three weeks. The Texans are playing well on both sides of the ball, and they seem to have that spark of belief in themselves that the franchise has never had. Take the Texans.

Arizona at St. Louis - Jim Haslett has given the Rams a new look and he deserves a tremendous amount of credit for it. I think they will have their hands full with the Cardinals, though. Kurt Warner and company are connecting on offense, and I don't see how the Rams will answer. Take the Cardinals.

Green Bay at Tennessee - I don't entirely know how the Titans have done what they have done, but I am impressed by it. They demolished the Colts when it mattered on Monday night, and I expect them to be able to handle the Packers as well. The key relationship here is the running game - the Titans run very well, and the Pack doesn't defend the run well at all. Take the Titans.

Miami at Denver - I'm going to take a bit of a risk here. The Dolphins are plying very well (for them), and they have been a solid road team. The Broncos offense has taken a mid-season holiday, and their defense has been missing all year. Take the Dolphins.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants - Two months ago this would have been a very easy game to call - the Cowboys by a mile. Now, though, America's team has all sorts of distractions, and they don't seem to have any faith in their QB. The Giants aren't exciting, and I don't like them in the long term, but they are the better team right now. Take the Giants.

Atlanta at Oakland - I don't think that the Raiders are as bad as most people do, and I'm not on the Falcons bandwagon like everyone else. That being said, I have to go with Atlanta here. It will be a tight game, but the Falcons have traveled pretty well this year, and they have a bit more current momentum. Take the Falcons.

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Philadelphia at Seattle - The Seahawks are my favorite team to pick on this year. They are a huge mess, and you could see it coming in the preseason. Philadelphia lacks consistency, but they are a bit healthier now, and they are clearly the better team right now. Take the Eagles.

New England at Indianapolis - This is a very tough game. On current form I would have to go with New England. Indianapolis has a massive edge at QB, though, and at some point they are going to capitalize on that edge. I don't like anything the Colts have done, and I think this will be a close game, but at home I have to look to Indy straight up. Take the Colts.

Pittsburgh at Washington - This is the best game of the week in my eyes, but not an easy one to call. I like how both teams play - tough and well coached. I have to go with Washington, though. The Steelers just aren't protecting their QB enough, and the Redskins will have a big boost from being at home.