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LVSC Interview On Football Injuries - Part One
by Jeremy Martin
This week Doc's Sports' Jeremy Martin interviews Tony Sinisi, odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, about the importance of injuries in college and pro football in regards to setting the betting lines. LVSC is the only licensed odds service in Nevada and it is responsible for providing odds, injury and weather information to most of the sports books in the state. With millions of dollars at stake each and every weekend of the football season, the company must know every detail regarding injury developments and these oddsmakers must, in turn, apply the right price to the line when a key player is out. Following is part one of a two-part Q&A with Sinisi on the subject of injuries and the line. This week we will discuss the public's perceptions regarding injuries as they relate to the point spread. Part two will be available next Thursday.
Doc's Sports: How important of a factor are injuries when you are setting lines for football?
Tony Sinisi: It would absolutely depend on the position. A quarterback injury is definitely going to carry more weight than a defensive lineman unless it is someone of a huge magnitude. It is certainly weighted (by position)… The wild card on these things is, of course, the mega-stars. The Wisconsin defensive lineman, Erasmus James, who missed the Northwestern game but was hurt in the Purdue game; this guy is unblockable and you wouldn't think this guy would make that much of a difference. But he is huge. So you have some exceptions on the defensive line but typically it is going to be positional.
DS: When injuries are involved, so you set the line according to how you think (injuries) will affect the game or how the public will handicap the injury?
TS: There is absolutely an anticipation. You are trying to mirror the public's perception on game lines to a certain extent. You are making a pure adjustment and if you move a game from six to 6 ½ off of an injury, that's what we believe the adjustment should be. And if (the line) runs off of that, that's public perception. There are going to be situations when (public bettors) are going to see that a starting quarterback is out and it's just that knee-jerk reaction that they are going to (bet) a certain direction. An example (last week) would be the Penn State game (at Ohio State) with (quarterbacks) Zack Mills or Michael Robinson. Mills has just been horrid. We put out a number and it may have run a little bit off that number due to the news that (Mills) was not going to play at all. But that's the public going with it where we are really thinking it means nothing. Really, our job is to look between the lines and know the exact value (of an injury). So when we make an adjustment it is (according) to what we believe the player is worth.
DS: So do you feel like the public sometimes overestimates injuries?
TS: I think there is an immediate overreaction typically at the start. I think the 'wise guys' (professional bettors) might come in later (on the other side) if that's the case. As a general rule, I think (injuries) are overrated. Especially in college football, there is uncertainty in who is backing up a player. Lots of times a running back that is out for Georgia, (for example), and there is a mystery on who is going to play. Typically that player (performs) fairly well and fits into their scheme.
DS: Is it true that the public would put more (weight) into an injury to a star player as opposed to a situation where a couple of key offensive lineman were out for the game? It seems like the second situation might be more serious.
TS: Multiple injuries in a specific spot, that can be more damaging than anything because you are getting hit hard in one area and all of the sudden you are really weakened in that spot. Joe Public is not going to pay attention to that but it certainly matters to the team.
DS: So I guess it's safe to assume that the wise guys are going against the public when injuries are involved?
TS: I think (the professionals) are more perceptive. I don't think that is particularly a wise guy strength though. I think that they are absolutely (better) versed on value. But I have seen it also that there are cases where an injury comes across and a line flies when it shouldn't fly. And it is hard to tell who exactly is betting on it but it has got to be a little wise guy money also in regards to that injury. So they are absolutely better versed than the public. But I don't think that in our battle with the wise guys, I don't think that is their particular strength.
DS: What positions are important when it comes to the public's perceptions of injuries?
TS: It would be quarterback, running back and then the odd mega star - like Randy Moss at wide receiver. Those types of guys are just standouts at their position.
Next week Sinisi will discus whether college or pro injuries carry more weight as well as the headaches that oddsmakers experience when coaches manipulate the injury report. Check back in this spot next Thursday.
Read last season't article about NFL Injuries.
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