Listen, I know you're going to think I'm high. (And who's to say that I'm not?) But just hear me out. The Houston Texans fit the pathology of a breakout team in the National Football League.

Yes, I know that they're coming off a league-worst 2-12 season. I understand they have a first-year coach, a banged-up running back and a leaky offensive line, and one of the league's worst defenses. But considering that the 1997 New York Jets went 9-7 just one season after posting a 1-15 mark, a significant turnaround would not be unprecedented.

Two years ago Cincinnati was everyone's sleeper team. They went 8-8, but then matched the hype with a 12-4 mark last season. In 2005 Arizona had everyone salivating. They went 5-11, but are now in a position to do some damage this year. It looks like the "pundits" were on to something with these teams but were a year early.

The same goes for Houston. People expected the franchise to turn the corner in 2005. It didn't happen. But the foundation is in place for a strong season. I'm not saying they're playoff bound, but what I am saying is that I believe Houston will win anywhere from seven to nine games. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Free Agency Pick-ups: Mike Flanagan is a Pro Bowl center and should stabilize the line, Eric Moulds will be an outstanding No. 2 receiver and take the pressure off Andre Johnson, and ex-Raven Tony Weaver gives the defense a legit pass rusher.

2) The 4-3 Defense: Last year's disastrous decision to switch to a 3-4 base, without the personnel to pull it off, led to the league's 31st-rated crew. With everyone back at their natural position in the 4-3, I expect a noticeable improvement.

3) Gary Kubiak: The first-year coach brings a tried-and-true offensive system to Houston. The overhaul in pass- and run-blocking schemes across the offensive line can only help a team that's surrendered 208 sacks in four seasons. With talent at the skill positions, the Texans should put some points on the board (27th at 16.2 per game) and take some pressure off the defense.

Here's Doc's 2006 Houston Texans Preview

2005 Record: 2-14 (2-6 home, 0-8 road)
2005 Rankings: 30th offense (30th pass, 15th run); 31st defense (24th pass, 32nd run)
2005 Against the Spread: 7-9 (2-6 home, 5-3 road); 8-7-1 vs. total (6-2 h, 2-5-1 r)
2006 Odds: 120/1 to win Super Bowl, 70/1 to win AFC, 17/1 to win AFC South, 5.5 wins O/U
2006 Strength of Schedule: 8th (.523 opp. win %)
Key stat: They were so bad last year that it's tough to find anything positive. Try this: their 24 giveaways on offense was the seventh-lowest total in the NFL.
Returning starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Key acquisitions: Eric Moulds, WR (from Buffalo); Mario Williams, DE (draft); Mike Flanagan, C (from G.B.); N.D. Kalu, DE (from Philly); Jeb Putzier, TE (from Denver); Wali Rainer, LB (from Detroit); Sam Cowart, LB (from Minn.); Tony Weaver, DT (from Balt.); Kevin Walters, WR (from Cincy); DeMeco Ryans, LB (draft).
Key departures: Jabar Gaffney, WR; Corey Bradford, WR; Milford Brown, OG; Marcus Coleman, S; Gary Walker, DE; Jonathan Wells, RB.

Offense: Domanick Davis' swollen knee is a major concern. Any debilitating injury leaves the RB corps dangerously thin, and reinforces the thought that they should have drafted Reggie Bush. I expect a monster year out of David Carr. He has Johnson, Moulds and the electric Jerome Mathis to throw to. Tight end Mark Bruener is a key to the running game, and newly acquired TE Jeb Putzier will give Carr another red-zone target.
Defense:Last season this unit was gouged for 5.8 yards per play, worst in the league. Now they find depth along the defensive line and in the secondary. There are questions at linebacker, where veteran Sam Cowart needs to hold down the middle while Kailee Wong gets readjusted after three knee surgeries.
X-factor: The secondary. Philip Buchanon and Dunta Robinson were No. 1 picks and need to play like it. Last year, teams completed 64.8 percent of their passes against the Texans, third-worst in the league.
Outlook: I love the over on their win total and think that if they can dodge any serious injuries they could win nine games. It doesn't help that they have a savage schedule, which is why I predict they'll fall just short of that mark. There is too much talent here for another two-win season.

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