2006 Jacksonville Jaguars Preview: Dumb and Dumber
by Robert Ferringo - 08/11/2006
Any team that employs both Dave Campo and Mike Tice on its coaching staff has to be prepared for some utterly dumbfounding moments. We're talking about two of the worst NFL coaches of the last 10 years, and now they're "key assistants" for Jacksonville. How? That's like Ken Lay being named Secretary of Commerce or Chief Financial Officer of J.P. Morgan. What's next, Mike Shula as offensive coordinator and Rich Kotite as general manager?
Head coach Jack Del Rio has already had his moments at the helm. Remember the whole "my-punter-almost-cut-his-leg-off-with-my-axe" situation? Now he's got Tice and Campo in his ear on the sideline. I can see it now; "Psst. Hey Jack, it's Dave. Mike thinks it's a good idea to punt on second down. It'll work. We'll take everyone by surprise."
Coaching incompetence and bad karma aside, the Jaguars are a bit of a Wild Card this season. Technically, they were a wild card last year when they earned a playoff berth with a 12-4 record. Of course, I think they reached that mark by beating the 49ers six times and the Texans six times. Seriously, they played the weakest schedule of anyone not named "Seattle".
Regardless, Jacksonville is a solid team. We just can't tell how solid because they haven't played anyone. With tremendous tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, the defense is tough in the trenches. They play strong, smash-mouth football on both sides of the ball, actually. And as flaky and undermanned the offense is, the Jags still scored 23 points or more nine times, and cracked the 30-point barrier four times.
Jacksonville still has a propensity to A) play down to the level of their competition, B) become too conservative and predictable against equal competition and C) not make enough Big Plays to overcome the Colts. Until they can develop a killer instinct this club will remain good enough to cause problems but not good enough to win titles.
Here's Doc's 2006 Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
2005 Record: 12-5 (6-2 home, 6-3 road)
2005 Rankings: 15th offense (19th pass, 10 run); 6th defense (7th pass, 14th run)
2005 Against the Spread: 9-6-2 (3-3-2 home, 6-3 road); 10-6-1 vs. total (4-3-1 h, 6-3 r)
2006 Odds: 34/1 to win Super Bowl, 15/1 to win AFC, 3/1 to win AFC South, 9.5 as wins O/U
2006 Strength of Schedule: 22nd (.484 opp. win %)
Key stat: An astounding 31 of the Jags' last 48 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Over the past two seasons, Jacksonville is 16-5 SU in those situations.
Key acquisitions: Brian Williams, CB (from Minn.); Mike Williams, OT (from Buffalo); Stockar McDougle, OT (from Miami); Nick Greisen, LB (from NYG); Mercedes Lewis, TE (draft); Maurice Drew, RB (draft).
Key departures: Jimmy Smith, WR; Akin Ayodele, LB.
Offense: Questions abound on the league's 15th-rated unit. Fred Taylor is pulling his usual holdout-or-fake-injury routine again, and Byron Leftwich remains fragile. But those situations can be overcome because the Jags have extremely reliable backups. They just need some skill. By far the biggest blow to the club this offseason was the stunning retirement of Jimmy Smith in May. Jacksonville's all-time leading receiver was the security blanket for whichever quarterback is running the show. Without him, expect Jacksonville's league-low six INT's to double.
Defense:Despite their No. 14 rush defense ranking, the Jaguars surrendered a league-low four rushing touchdowns in 2005. Mike Peterson remains one of the best (and most underrated) middle linebackers in the game. The addition of Brian Williams should plug a huge hole at cornerback and bolster a secondary that is mediocre at best. The defense yielded just 13 points per game at home after Nov. 1 last year.
X-factor: The receivers. Without Smith, Reggie Williams or Ernest Wilford has to step up and be a legit 75-catch guy. Also, Matt Jones needs to become a legit red-zone target or he was a wasted first rounder.
Outlook: We'll find out how good the Jaguars are real quick. They start out against Dallas, Pitt, Indy and Washington. They also face New England and Indy (again), and take road trips to Philly, Miami and K.C. If they're going to prove me wrong and become a Contender, the Jags will definitely have to earn it. Jacksonville is 8-2 SU in its last 10 regular season road games, and I anticipate them to remain a solid play in those spots.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.