2006 Chiefs: Happy Hunting
by Robert Ferringo - 08/04/2006
Over the past four years Kansas City has put on an offensive display that rivals anything the National Football League has ever seen. However, their success was limited to just one playoff game during that period. They could crack any scheme set to stop them, but in the end they could not solve the defense of Father Time.
Head coach Dick Vermeil and offensive coordinator Al Saunders have moved on. Willie Roaf and John Welbourn, two stalwarts of their dominating offensive line, have retired. Priest Holmes' career is likely over. Trent Green will be 36 and Eddie Kennison is 33. Hell, even Tony Gonzalez is 30.
While the talent has aged, the dream is not dead in K.C. Herman Edwards has been brought in to shift the focus of the organization. Herm inherits a team of aged stars, but also is loaded with young ballers to build around. The marquee name among the Next Generation of Chiefs is freight train running back, Larry Johnson.
Johnson put up 1,750 yards and 21 touchdowns while playing in only about 2/3 of the games last season. He will be expected to carry the offense again as Edwards shifts the Chiefs offensive philosophy from one of aerial attack to one of rugged running.
But most importantly, Edwards is charged with reconstructing what has been the Achilles Heel of this team over the past four seasons: the defense. He recruited Ty Law to bolster the secondary, drafted Tambi Hall the first round, and is hoping for the increased development of last year's top pick, Derrick Johnson. They began making strides in 2005, but I expect an incremental increase for last season's 25th-rated unit.
The Chiefs will not go down without a fight. While they are not, in my opinion, a legitimate Super Bowl threat, they should stand to be competitive as they transition into the next chapter of the organization's history.
Here's Doc's 2006 Kansas City Chiefs Preview:
2005 Record: 10-6 (7-1 home, 3-5 road)
2005 Rankings: 1st offense (6th pass, 4th run); 25th defense (30th pass, 7th run)
2005 Against the Spread: 10-5-1 (7-1 home, 3-4-1 road); 6-10 vs. total (3-5 h, 3-5 r)
2006 Odds: 23/1 to win Super Bowl, 12/1 to win AFC, +170 to win AFC West, 9.5 wins O/U
2006 Strength of Schedule: 7th (.527 opp. win %)
Key stat: Over the past 10 years the Chiefs are 34-16 straight-up and 29-21 ATS when playing at home against non-divisional opponents.
Key acquisitions: Ty Law, CB (from NYJ); Lenny Walls, CB (from Denver); Tambi Hall, DE (draft); Ron Edwards, DT (from Buffalo); Michael Bennett, RB (from N.O.); Quentin Griffin, RB (from Denver).
Key departures: Tony Richardson, FB; Willie Roaf, OT; John Welbourn, OT; Priest Holmes, RB; Shawn Barber, LB; Marc Boerigter, WR; Dexter McLeon, CB, Todd Collins, QB; Eric Warfield, CB.
Offense: The offensive line has been the fulcrum of their incredible offense. Now that holes have appeared, the aging Green will be exposed. They haven't had an explosive receiver in years, and they don't again this season. In fact, their veteran receivers will be matched up with a slew of younger, faster, more athletic corners within the division. Again, you can only get by on guile for so long. They'll miss Richardson a ton in the running game. Fortunately they have LJ, who seems like Mighty Joe Young rambling through New York City whenever he gets to the outside.
Defense:Expect to see a significant improvement out of K.C.'s defense. One of the first things that Herm is doing in K.C. is installing the Tampa 2 defense. New defensive line coach Tim Krumrie is an absolute animal, and has been brought in to light a fire under guys like Hall and Ryan Sims. Jared Allen is an absolute stud, and the triumvirate of Law, Walls and Patrick Surtain gives them three outstanding corners. The key will be the linebackers, and especially the health of Kendrell Bell.
X-factor: Derrick Johnson. He had 79 tackles and two sacks last season. He needs to double up on both of those numbers and become a leader on defense.
Outlook: It's a sorry fact, but the Chiefs are the third-best team in the NFC West. The window on their high-flying offensive machine has closed, and I expect a transitional period for the New Chiefs. I expect them to perform as an Under team, since the defense will be improved and the offense is in decline. Also, I believe that playing Under on their win total is a fantastic futures bet.
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