Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/5/2025

The Carolina Hurricanes will take on the Washington Capitals in one of the two Eastern Conference semifinals matchups. The Hurricanes took down the New Jersey Devils in five games, winning the series with a +8-goal differential. The Capitals found their way around the Montreal Canadiens as they took the series in five games, finishing with a +6-goal differential. Carolina finished 12 points behind Washington in the regular season, but the two teams split the regular season series, with the home team winning each game. This bodes well for Washington as they have home ice advantage here, but anything can happen in the playoffs.

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Team Summaries

Washington faced little resistance in their series against Montreal, dominated on their home ice, and will now look to step it up against Carolina. The Capitals are averaging 3.60 GF/G during the postseason which is a step up from their 3.49 GF/G regular season mark. In a limited sample, the one area that needs dire improvement is their special teams play. Washington has the worst PK% of any of the remaining teams (66.7%) despite ranking in the top five in the league in the regular season. Dylan Strome leads the Capitals roster with nine points so far during the postseason with two goals and seven assists. Alex Ovechkin is the team’s leading goal scorer with four while Brandon Duhaime and Connor McMichael each have three goals. Deadline addition Anthony Beauvillier has been productive through his first five playoff games as the journeyman has recorded five points despite averaging less than 14 minutes per game. Logan Thompson has allowed just 2.23 GA/G which puts Washington (2.40 GA/G) second amongst playoff teams in the category, just behind their next opponent. Thompson’s .923 SV% is second amongst starting goaltenders this postseason. Washington has no major injuries to report ahead of their second-round tilt.

The Hurricanes completely dominated New Jersey in the first round, as they made their goaltending look silly. Carolina averaged 3.80 GF/G which is well above their 3.24 GF/G regular season average. Their special teams play has been elite as well as they cashed in on 31.6% of their power play opportunities and they have killed 100% of their opponent’s man advantage opportunities thus far. Carolina has also avoided raking up penalty minutes as they have the second lowest amongst the remaining teams. Sebastian Aho leads the team with eight points on three goals and five assists. Andrei Svechnikov is the team’s leading goal scorer with five. Svechnikov is tied for second amongst all skaters in goals this postseason. Logan Stankoven and Seth Jarvis mark the other two multi-goal scorers for Carolina. The Hurricanes incredible depth has shown through as they have 11 players who have recorded a goal during the postseason. Carolina’s 2.20 GA/G is the best mark in the playoffs thus far as Frederik Andersen dominated in his four first round starts, allowing just 1.59 GA/G on a .936 SV%. Andersen has been practicing without restrictions leading up to the series and should be ready to go. His backup, Pyotr Kochetkov, allowed 2.50 GA/G in Andersen’s absence.

Goalie Matchup

Thompson got pulled in Washington’s Game Three loss to Montreal, but aside from that game he was dominant. On home ice he has allowed just four goals on 90 shots against, posting an insane .957 SV%. He did struggle on the road as he allowed seven goals on 46 shots against. Thompson allowed three goals in his lone appearance against Carolina this season. Those three goals came in just 12 shot attempts. Despite the limited playoff experience, Thompson has exceeded expectations as he has allowed just 2.29 GA/G in nine playoff starts.

Andersen left Game Four early due to injury and the Hurricanes hope he returns to his dominant ways in the second round. Andersen allowed just six goals on 94 shots against. He stopped 40 of the 44 shots against him on the road. He was elite at home, allowing just two goals on 50 shot attempts. Andersen recorded a 2.41 GA/G in his two starts against Washington during the regular season, picking up one win while losing once in overtime. Andersen has allowed just 2.42 GA/G in his 76 career playoff games.

Skaters to Watch

Washington Capitals:

Ovechkin and Tom Wilson have a combined -7 +/- rating against Carolina this season.
Wilson picked up 16 PIM against Carolina this season, the most against any team during the regular season.
Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane will look to get going in the second round as the two combined for just one goal and four points in the first round.

Carolina Hurricanes:

Aho’s road production is significantly lower than at home. He recorded just 29 of his 74 regular season points on the road.
Seth Jarvis has struggled on the road as he tallied just seven of his 32 goals on the road during the regular season.
Jackson Blake scored three goals against Washington in their four game regular season series.

Series Pick

Most will expect this series to go a lot deeper than either team’s previous first round series as this is a tough matchup. After splitting the regular season series, it is largely expected this series could go the distance. There will be little margin for error for either team thanks to their stout goaltending. However, I like Carolina’s depth and the playoff experience in the blue paint. Thompson has been solid through his limited playoff experience, but Carolina has depth that will keep the pressure on all game. Carolina will need to figure out how to steal at least one on the road, but if Andersen is healthy, he might be the best goalie left in the playoffs. Give me Carolina to break the Capitals hearts as they pull off the upset.

My Pick: Carolina Hurricanes to Win: -170, Series Total Games: Over 5.5 -196, Series Exact Games: 7 Games +175

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Start:	May 5, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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Carolina Hurricanes vs Washington Capitals Series Predictions and Best Bets

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