Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/7/2025

The second Western Conference Semifinal matchup will begin with the Dallas Stars traveling to Winnipeg to take on the Presidents Trophy winning Jets. Both teams are coming off tough fought, seven-game series as the Central Division proves to be the best in the NHL. Winnipeg found luck on their side as they scored a game tying goal in Game Seven against St. Louis with less than two seconds remaining and then took the game in 2OT. Dallas found themselves in a 2-0 hole in the third period of Game Seven against Colorado, before scoring four unanswered goals in less than 13 minutes to win the series. Winnipeg won the regular season series against Dallas, 3-1, with a +8-goal differential.

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Team Summaries

Winnipeg faced a huge scare in the first round after the St. Louis Blues unexpectedly took them to Game Seven. Winnipeg became the luckiest team in NHL history after scoring twice in less than three minutes while their game-tying goal came with less than two seconds remaining in the game. Winnipeg averaged 3.00 GF/G through their seven-game series with the Blues which was significantly lower than their regular season average of 3.35 GF/G. Kyle Connor stepped up in this series as he tallied 12 points and a team best four goals. Mark Scheifele and Mason Appleton each recorded six points while Cole Perfetti and Adam Lowry each scored three goals. After leading the league in PP% (28.9%), their special teams play has regressed in the postseason as they cashed in on just 22.7% of their man advantage chances. Connor Hellebuyck was far and away the best goaltender in the regular season. His postseason numbers, especially on the road, are atrocious. Hellebuyck has allowed 3.85 GA/G during the postseason and has managed a abysmal .830 SV%. Eric Comrie has done well when Hellebuyck gets pulled, stopping 13 of the 14 shots he has seen. There are some significant injury factors for Winnipeg as Scheifele as well as blueliners Logan Stanley and Josh Morrissey are all considered game time decisions, with Scheifele in a non-contact sweater at practice ahead of the series opener.

The short-handed Dallas Stars took down the Nathan MacKinnon led Colorado Avalanche for the second postseason in a row. Dallas used four unanswered goals to steal Game Seven away from the Avalanche, with former Colorado star Mikko Rantanen using a four point, three goal period to eliminate his former team. The Stars averaged just 3.00 GF/G during their first-round matchup but scored 14 goals over the final three games of the series. After a slow start to the series, Rantanen would lead Dallas with 12 points in the first round series with five goals and seven assists. Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz both tallied seven points with Hintz scoring four goals and Johnston adding another three. Thomas Harley ate up a lot of valuable minutes for Dallas as he led the team with 28:09 MPG in Miro Heiskanen’s absence. Dallas’ special teams were incredible as they killed off 86.4% of Colorado’s power play chances while they scored on 30.4% of their man advantage chances. Jake Oettinger dominated in the crease, more so than what his numbers would indicate. He allowed 2.85 GA/G against the like of MacKinnon and Cale Makar without his best blueliner in front of him. He also saw 224 shot attempts, 17 more than the next goalie. As for the Stars’ injury report, Heiskanen and Jason Robertson are expected back at some point with Robertson more likely to get back on the ice first.

Goalie Matchup

Hellebuyck was the best goalie in the regular season by far. He allowed just a career low of 2.01 GA/G while posting a career best .925 SV%. However, the postseason has changed him. He was pulled three times against the Blues. He did limit the Blues to just 10 goals in the four games at Winnipeg. In his four regular season starts against Dallas he went 3-1 and allowed just 1.01 GA/G. He has allowed 2.98 GA/G in his playoff career, but he has allowed 4.17 GA/G over his last 17 playoff games.

As for Oettinger, he was incredible in the first round. He saw 224 shot attempts from Colorado and stopped 204 of them. He flashed signs of brilliance in Games three, five, and seven and even his worst performance saw him stop 41 of 46 shot attempts against him. Getting Heiskanen back will help tremendously, but he will need to step it up on the road. He allowed 13 goals in his four starts against the Jets this season. Oettinger has been an solid postseason goalie for Dallas as he has allowed just 2.52 GA/G across 54 playoff appearances while posting a .915 SV%.

Skaters to Watch

Winnipeg Jets:

Connor had four goals and five points in his four games against Dallas this season and he has 17 points over his last 12 postseason games.
Scheifele and Morrissey combined for eight points against Dallas this season with all eight coming as assists.
Nikolaj Ehlers has just four goals and 15 points across 39 postseason games in his career.

Dallas Stars:

Rantanen has averaged 1.28 points per game across his 88 career playoff games.
Despite his production in the first round against Colorado, Johnston had a -9 +/- rating in the first round.
Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have a combined 249 playoff appearances in their careers and they have combined for 154 points in postseason games.

Series Pick:

Dallas was able to escape the first round without Heiskanen and Jason Robertson even playing for a minute while Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund were virtually nonexistent in terms of production. Heiskanen will join Harley and form one of the best remaining blueline pairs while Dallas gets their leading goal scorer back in Robertson which will open up the ice for Marchment, Duchene, and Granlund and allow this trio to have an impact in this series. Winnipeg will be heavily reliant on Hellebuyck to figure out his postseason woes as the Stars are a lot deeper and more explosive than the Blues. Winnipeg will need to stick to their game plan that they had for the Stars in the regular season if they want to slow down Dallas. However, after winning the first round without two of their best players, Dallas has a lot of momentum heading into the second round. Dallas should win take another hard-fought series.

My Pick: Dallas Stars to Win: -178, Series Total Games: Over 5.5 -196, Series Exact Games: 7 Games +175

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Start:	May 8, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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Dallas Stars vs Winnipeg Jets Series Predictions and Best Bets

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