PGA Picks: The American Express Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
In this case, aloha means goodbye for the PGA Tour after we've completed the first two tournaments of the year in the 50th, and the most beautiful State of the Union. This week, the Tour tees off the famous West Coast Swing in the Coachella Valley, specifically sunny La Quinta, California, with the third tournament of 2025, The American Express.
Hey, if you can make it out, Journey will be performing. Maybe I’m showing my age, but I would rather see those guys play than 90% of the talent that’s graced the Coachella stage.
Music performances aside, we have some of the world's best in the field this week. However, we are heavy at the top with golfers like Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, and Patrick Cantlay, and if we go down the betting board about 20 guys, you'll probably see some names you don't recognize.
One of those names could actually be the defending champ here at The American Express, 21-year-old Alabama native and Crimson Tide alum Nick Dunlap. You can get him right now at 60-1! That has to be some of the longest odds for a returning champion I've ever seen. Maybe it's because that win came as an amateur, but the kid also went on to win his first pro event in 2024, making him the first-ever golfer to get their first amateur and professional win in the same year. A top-ten finish last week at the Sony Open has me throwing at least a few bucks down on Dunlap to win at 60-1.
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The American Express Winner Betting Odds
Justin Thomas: +1400
Sungjae Im: +1400
Patrick Cantlay: +1600
Sam Burns: +1600
Tony Finau: +2500
Tom Kim: +2800
Wyndham Clark: +2800
Kurt Kitayama: +2800
Si Woo Kim: +4500
Nick Dunlap: +5000
Will Zalatoris: +5000
Nico Echaverria: +6000
Pete Dye Stadium Course: Course Characteristics
This is a pro/am event, and we will use different courses. As you might imagine, these are resort-style links, which means they play out to make the golfer feel good. This isn't exactly the British Open in the breezy, misty conditions of Scotland. We're in the Southern California desert with nearly perfect weather.
Until the last couple of years, these courses ranked about 36th out of 51 on the PGA Tour in terms of difficulty. For the three courses in 2024, we were at 48th, 49th, and 50th. Last year's scores showed it. Dunlap shot a tremendous 29 under par for the tournament.
The cut will be after the first three days of play instead of two, and you can say goodbye to all the ammys before the final round on Sunday, which will be all pros.
Expect very low scores from the top performers this week, as we haven’t seen a winning score drop to the teens since the format was changed to a pro/am in 2012.
The American Express Betting Picks
Justin Thomas: +1400
We were on Thomas a couple of weeks ago at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, and he managed to disappoint with just a 26th-place finish. Some quotes have come out since from the former World #1 ranked golfer regarding his approach to the game.
He said he plans to be much more aggressive, and that should be great news when backing him to win the whole thing. This is especially true when he’s playing on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th easiest courses on the PGA Tour. JT was 3rd here last year, and with a thin field at the top, I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday.
Sungjae Im: +1400
South Korea's Sungjae Im has the same odds as the other betting favorite, Thomas. That tells me he deserves it.
He's in fine form with finishes of 13th, 9th, and 3rd in that order in his previous three tournaments. To go along with that, his course history has been incredibly consistent, with consecutive finishes of 12th, 10th, 12th, 11th, 18th, and 25th in his only six starts at The American Express.
Tom Kim: +2800
Im’s countryman, Tom Kim, did not have a good showing at the Sony Open as he finished 65th. Before that, though, he was the runner-up to World #1 Scottie Scheffler at the final tournament of 2024, the Hero World Challenge.
Kim's course history isn't much here, as he's only 22. He grabbed 6th place in his first try, though, in 2023. If I had to pick which golfer in the entire field has the highest ceiling, it's this guy.
The American Express Prop Bet
Max Greyserman Top 20 Finish: +150
A late bloomer, New Jersey’s Max Greyserman ranked in the top five on the PGA Tour in 2024 in both scoring average and strokes gained on the green. Unfortunately, the course history isn’t there for the Duke grad. He finished 56th a year ago, but with the stats we just mentioned, course fit is on our side.
It often takes pros a time or two to get used to the format of playing with amateurs. Maybe it was that, but what do you weigh higher? A year's statistics pointing toward a phenomenal course fit or one lousy tournament in a golfer's first year on the PGA Tour?
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