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2025-26 Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/29/2025

Tampa Bay Lightning predictions Nikita Kucherov

Last season ended in disappointing fashion for the Tampa Bay Lightning. They ended the regular season with 102 points and finished second in the Atlantic Division. Their +75-goal differential was the best mark in the Eastern Conference and the second best in the league. Unfortunately, none of that mattered as they were dominated in the first round of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers who won the Battle of Florida in five games.

The Lightning, despite their aging roster, led the league in scoring as they averaged 3.56 GF/G. Their special teams were incredible as well as they ranked fifth in the league in PP% and sixth in PK%. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 121 points, and his 84 assists were tied with Nathan MacKinnon for the most in the NHL. Kucherov’s 37 goals was third on the team. Brayden Point led Tampa Bay with 42 goals, and he finished with 82 points while Jake Guentzel joined Point in the 40-goal club as his 41 goals were second on the team and Guentzel finished with 80 points on the year. Brandon Hagel finished the season second on the Lightning with 90 points on 35 goals and 55 assists. Victor Hedman also had a heck of a year as he led all Tampa Bay bluelines with 66 points on 15 goals and 51 assists.

As for the goaltending, Tampa Bay ranked 4th in the league in GA/G as they allowed just 2.63 GA/G. Andre Vasilevskiy appeared in 63 games last season and allowed just 2.18 GA/G while posting a .921 SV%. Jonas Johansson allowed 3.13 GA/G in his 19 appearances while Brandon Halverson made one appearance where he allowed 5.18 GA/G on a .792 SV%.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2025-26:

Tampa Bay Lightning Key Additions/Losses

The only significant loss for Tampa Bay was blueliner Nick Perbix who recorded 19 points on six goals and 13 assists in 74 games as he signed with the Nashville Predators. To continue the quiet offseason that Tampa Bay had, they had no significant additions to their roster as the front office seems content with what they had last season.

Tampa Bay Lightning X-Factors

The Aging Core- While this core is far from ancient it is worth noting that Kucherov is 32, Guentzel is about to turn 31, Hedman will turn 35 in December, Vasilevskiy is 31, Ryan McDonagh is 36, Yanni Gourde will turn 34 in December, and Oliver Bjorkstand will be 31 before the seasons end. There is still a lot of production left in those skates, but it is worth following to see if father time cuts into the production for this core.

Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Outlook

Vasilevskiy is a Top Five goalie in the league who takes on a heavy workload every season. Despite all the success in his career, Vasilevskiy’s 2.18 GA/G was a career high while his six shutouts were tied for the second most in his career. One concerning note for Tampa Bay is when the playoffs come around, he struggles. The veteran netminder has allowed 3.22 GA/G or more over his last 16 playoff starts. His struggles in the postseason have kept Tampa Bay from getting out of the first round since the 2021/22 season. Behind him, Johansson doesn’t have to be great, but he could improve on his GA/G and if he does, Tampa Bay could easily win the division and be in contention for the Presidents Trophy. Overall, every time would be happy with Vasilevskiy in the crease.

Grade: A

Tampa Bay Lightning Key Schedule Stretch

Road Games- In all their domination, one of the recognizable weaknesses for this Tampa Bay squad was their road performance. They finished the season with a 18-19-4 road record last year which was one of the worst marks for a playoff team and they went 1-1 on the road in the playoffs. In order for the Lightning to win the division, they will need to improve their road performance. We are nitpicking at this point, but that is an obvious area in which Tampa Bay can improve.

Tampa Bay Lightning Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +1100

Conference Winner: +500

Division Winner: +200

Hart Trophy- Nikita Kucherov: +1000

Norris Trophy- Victor Hedman: +5500

Hart Trophy- Brayden Point: +50000

Vezina Trophy- Andrei Vasilevskiy: +750

Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Tampa Bay will once again be in the thick of things and they will be a prime candidate to win the Eastern Conference. Vasilevskiy’s playoff numbers are concerning as he has struggled over the last three seasons when it has mattered most, but there is no denying that he is one of the best goalies in the game right now and he has had success in the playoffs, though that was years ago. There is a lot to like about the top two lines for Tampa Bay, and they added some nice depth pieces at the deadline that will be there to contribute all year. If Vasilevskiy gets hurt or sees a decline, then that could hurt how deep they go, but the Lightning will return to the playoffs and hope for a better first round matchup. Take the over on the point total thanks to the depth up front.

Over 104.5 Team Total Points

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