Free NHL Picks: Oilers at Flyers Odds
by George Monroy - 11/8/2013
Saturday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Philadelphia Flyers is a battle between two of the NHL’s worst teams. Both squads have a combined 19 points, which wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoffs in the Western Conference as nine teams already have 20 points or more. The matchup is probably not circled as must-see television on any fan’s calendar, but there is value to be had wagering on this game. The Flyers have lost four of their last five and are looking to end a season-long slump that has already seen a three- and four-game losing streak as well as multiple two-game streaks.
The Oilers have been equally as bad, if not worse, than the Flyers and have the added difficulty of being in the middle of a four-game road trip. Edmonton has a few winnable games coming up on their schedule, including Saturday’s matchup against the Flyers, and needs to use this stretch to earn some much-needed points and try to move up in the standings for a mid-season playoff push. Let’s take an in-depth look at the Oilers versus Flyers match and figure out which side of the wager has the most value to bet on this weekend.
Oilers at Flyers Betting Story Lines
Both of these squads are bad—worst in the league bad. The Flyers have only four wins and nine points on the season, while the Oilers have four wins and 10 points. Philadelphia has struggled on offense and is ranked last in the NHL in goals scored per game with an average of 1.5. The team has been shutout twice this year and held to one goal a whopping six times in 15 games. Perhaps the most concerning part about the Flyers offense is that the team’s points leader—Vincent Lecavalier—has only seven points the entire season. The team’s defense is not much better, either, as they allow 2.8 goals per game and have been outscored 12-2 over their last four games. Philadelphia is being outshot by nearly three attempts per game and is allowing opponents to score on nearly 10 percent of their shots—which is a horrendous number.
Edmonton has played surprisingly well on the road and have 3-6-2 record, which for them is doing well. The Oilers score a bit more than the Flyers do and are ranked 22nd in the NHL with 2.4 goals scored per game. However, the team’s real issue has been on the defensive end where they allow 3.8 goals per game and are ranked last in the league. Edmonton allows nearly four goals on 30 shot attempts, which is an even worse save rate than Philadelphia has. The Oilers have scored six goals during their last three games but have still been outscored 12-6 in that span.
Edmonton currently has seven players that are injured—three are out indefinitely, and the other four are questionable for Saturday. Philadelphia currently has two players that are out indefinitely and have a semi-healthy squad of players. Neither team has been making gamblers any money on the puckline as the Flyers are 5-10 and losing $100 bettors $833 on the season. The Oilers are 8-9 against the puckline and are losing bettors $683. The Flyers have provided gamblers excellent totals value, however, and their “under” has come in 11 times in 15 games.
Oilers at Flyers NHL Betting Odds and Key Trends
Philadelphia opened as a -147 moneyline favorite over the +134 underdog Oilers. The total was set 5.5 goals, with the “over” being favored at -126. Edmonton is 1-4 during their last five games versus the Eastern Conference and 0-4 when playing on one day of rest. The team is also 0-4 versus the Metropolitan Division this season. Philadelphia is 4-1 during their last five matchups after a home loss of three goals or more. The under is 4-0-1 during the Flyers last five games against the Western Conference. Head-to-head, the Oilers are 7-1-1 in the last nine games against the Flyers and 4-1 during the last five in Philadelphia. The home team has won the last four of five meetings, while the under is 6-2-1 in the last nine games between the teams.
Free NHL Picks: Oilers at Flyers Predictions
Handicapping a matchup between two bad teams is always a tricky situation. In general, simply deferring to the odds and home-ice advantage seems like the best way to analyze the game. The Flyers are the favorites, receiving nearly 1.5/1 odds, but that moneyline feels too big to justify betting it. Philadelphia is a bad team that does not play well at home and probably shouldn’t be such a large favorite. This moneyline would be much more enticing as a -125 line or so. As a bettor, I would feel silly wagering on a very bad team as a -147 favorite. There is also the fact Edmonton has won three of their four games on the road, and they are the better offensive team. The Oilers are receiving all the value in this spot, and bettors should take the positive moneyline payout.
Record: 17-8; Profit: +$1056
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