Predictions on Bodog NFL Top Passer Props
by Jason Shimberg - 06/26/2008
This prop bet at Bodog lists 23 active quarterbacks, and the field. In 1984, Dan Marino of the Miami Dolphins passed for the most yards in a single season; 5,084 yds. This is an average of 317.75 yds per game. That may not be duplicated or surpassed for many years to come, but here are the most likely to lead for this season. Quarterback Tom Brady of the 16-0 New England Patriots had the most passing yards (4,806) in 2007. It is hard to bet against him repeating.
Tom Brady (NE) 9/5: Looking at the talented players surrounding him including Randy Moss, and Wes Welker, it could very well be a repeat performance. He has not been plagued by injury in his career. The Patriots' balance may be the only thing holding him back here.
Peyton Manning (IND) 9/4: He has modified his number of throws in the offseason to preserve his arm. This may make some nervous that his arm is wearing down. If he doesn't modify his number of throws in the regular season he will give Brady his toughest competition to lead the league. Without injury, Manning will wind up around the 4,000-yard plateau again.
Drew Brees (NO) 5/2: With 4,423 yards passing last season, he was second overall. Brees is the third-best choice on the board and he has a great corps of receivers. He is also surrounded by running backs that catch the ball.
Tony Romo (DAL) 13/2: He had 4,211 yards last season and Terrell Owens is returning. That should make Romo efficient in short yardage passing.
Carson Palmer (CIN) 9/1: If he is able to keep two receivers happy he can do some real damage this season. He has it in him to produce all kinds of passing records, including most passing yards, this year.
Field 12/1: This may be the optimal safe bet. In a transient position the field is a great option. Brett Favre could always become unretired. Washington Redskins QB Jason Campbell finished 2007 injured. In 10 of 13 starts he passed for more than 190 yards.
Derrick Anderson (CLE) 15/1: He has the starting job. He threw for 3,787 yards last year. Brady Quinn is waiting eagerly in the wings if Anderson should falter.
Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) 20/1: This streaky passer would need his career-best year in order to lead the league in passing yards.
Wager $100 on Favorite: Tom Brady (NE) 9/5
Eli Manning (NYG) 25/1: He was the 2008 Super Bowl MVP. He struggled with interceptions in the regular season. If this improves, most likely everything else will improve. Could see a rise in passing yards (3,336 yds in 2007).
Marc Bulger (STL) 25/1: He had 4,301 passing yards in 2006. He is only 31 years old. This is a good mid-tier pick to look at.
Donovan McNabb (PHI) 30/1: Very injury plagued by a torn knee and a bum shoulder. He has never been eye popping at passing yards. The Eagles have maintained a poor depth of receivers.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 30/1: This QB was once compared to Dan Marino. In 2006, he suffered an injury in a motorcycle accident. He has to stay confident in his arm.
Jon Kitna (DET) 35/1: A very good receiving corps should help Kitna put up big numbers. He has had over 4,000 yards the last two seasons.
Philip Rivers (SDG) 40/1: He is recovering from a torn ACL. These don't always heal quickly. Shy away from this prop.
Jay Cutler (DEN) 45/1: Off-field health concerns are an issue with Cutler. He doesn't have a lot of chemistry with his receivers.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 45/1: He is the starter in Green Bay. That means he is Brett Favre's replacement. He has been in the league for three years. In 2007 he completed 20-of-28 passes; this is impressive enough to consider.
Wager $50 on Mid-Tier: Jon Kitna (DET) 35/1
JaMarcus Russell (OAK) 100/1: Did not play much of the 2007 season as the overall No. 1 pick in the draft. With more experience, he will be a major passing threat.
Alex Smith (SF) 100/1: He is in a competition for starter. He has athletic ability, and a strong arm. He will have to earn all his passing yards.
Vince Young (TEN) 200/1: It was reported he was contemplating retirement. You have to consider his motivation level. A tuck and run-type QB.
Tarvaris Jackson (MIN) 200/1: He showed some improvement from the beginning of 2007. He likes to showcase his running skills. He is a very inaccurate deep thrower. He completed only 4-of-36 attempts on throws of more than 20 yards in 2007.
Rex Grossman (CHI) 200/1: His starting job is in jeopardy and he is likely to be replaced by Kyle Orton. Rex is too inconsistent.
Trent Edwards (BUF) 250/1: He reportedly added 10 pounds of muscle since the end of last season. This could help him throw the long ball better.
Kellen Clemens (NYJ) 350/1: Has a strong arm, but his completion percentage was too low (52.0) in 2007. He will be battling for the starting job with Pennington all year.
Kyle Boller (BAL) 400/1: He doesn't appear to be a serious competitor to start the season as quarterback. He might be Baltimore's third QB.
Wager $25 on Long Shot: Trent Edwards (BUF) 250/1