UFC 96 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 03/05/2009
It's time for yet another UFC event. The card, headlined by a light heavyweight tilt between Keith Jardine and Quinton Jackson, takes place on Saturday, March 7 in Columbus, Ohio. To get you ready for the event, here's a preview and some predictions. We're on a hot streak with the picks over the last two events, so here's hoping it can continue (odds are from Bodog):
Quinton Jackson (-325) vs. Keith Jardine (+250) - Before his last time out we couldn't be sure if Rampage Jackson could be trusted mentally. He had, after all, had an epic meltdown after losing his title to Forrest Griffin last year. Jackson quickly eased any fears, though, when he demolished Wanderlei Silva. He'll be ready. Jardine is harder to figure out. In his last five fights he has three wins, and they are impressive - Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Brandon Vera. The problem is that his two losses - against Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander - were ugly. That makes Jardine a very tough guy to trust. Thankfully, I'm not sure that it is going to matter which Jardine shows up. This fight is likely to turn into a slugfest, because both guys prefer to keep it on their feet. Unless Jackson doesn't show up, that gives him the edge. He has very heavy hands, and I expect an early knockout.
Pick: Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson
Gabriel Gonzaga (-155) vs. Shane Carwin (+125) - Carwin is undefeated in 10 fights, and all wins have been by stoppage. He's generally a wrestler, but he punches very well when he has to. He's talented, but this is just his third UFC bout and is a major step up in class for him. Gonzaga has won 10 of his 13 matches, and none have gone the distance. Carwin has a size advantage and is a better wrestler, but Gonzaga has a pretty clear edge as long as they are standing up. That means that the style of fight will be the key. It's a toss-up, and it seems closer in my mind than the odds indicate. That means that there is some value in backing the more than capable underdog.
Pick: Shane Carwin
Pete Sell (-155) vs. Matt Brown (+125) - I don't understand the odds here. Neither of these Brazilian jiu jitsu specialists has had a huge impact in the UFC, and neither has a particularly bright future. Brown has shown more form in his recent fights, and he is fighting in his home state. That combines to make an attractive underdog.
Pick: Matt Brown
Matt Hamill (-170) vs. Mark Munoz (+140) - Munoz is undefeated in five fights, but he will be making his UFC debut in this fight. Like Hamill, he is a very good wrestler and an above average striker. I expect him to be reasonably successful in the UFC, but it won't start here. Making his debut on a PPV event is sure to have him nervous. Hamill is more experienced, and he will be fired up by fighting in his home state, so he should be able to exploit any weakness that Munoz exhibits.
Pick: Matt Hamill
Gray Maynard (-185) vs. Jim Miller (+155) - Maynard is unbeaten in six fights, including four in the UFC. He has a strong wrestling background, and is generally comfortable when he is standing up. Miller has lost just once in 14 fights, and he has 10 submissions. Miller can clearly hold his own, especially on the ground, but he's at a significant disadvantage here. Maynard is a better fighter, and he is set up well to succeed here.
Pick: Gray Maynard
Tamdan McCrory (-325) vs. Ryan Madigan (+250) - McCrory has a 2-2 record in the UFC. That's not particularly impressive, but the experience is important. Madigan is a UFC rookie. It takes an exceptional fighter to win in their debut given the pressure of the experience. There are no signs that Madigan is an exceptional fighter.
Pick: Tamdan McCrory
Kendall Grove (-200) vs. Jason Day (+160) - Grove has had two losses and a split decision in his last three fights. He looked strong before that, but he isn't exactly riding a wave of momentum. Day has only had two UFC fights, and he has to come back here from a tough loss to Michael Bisping. Both guys are decent submission fighters, and both are good strikers. Day, in particular, has been making progress on the striking front. Day is a legitimate underdog in this case, and well worth consideration at this price.
Pick: Jason Day
Tim Boetsch (-140) vs. Jason Brilz (+110) - Brilz has won 16 of his 18 career fights, and he is coming off a win in his UFC debut. Only two of his 16 wins have gone the distance. It's an impressive record, but he is facing one of his tougher opponents to date. Boetsch can match Brilz with wrestling skills, and he's far more ferocious with his fists. That gives him an overall edge.
Pick: Tim Boetsch
Brandon Vera (-550) vs. Michael Patt (+350) - This one is about as close as the price indicates. Vera is 5-3 in the UFC, and is generally well regarded. Patt lost his UFC debut and probably won't last through another loss. Vera is significantly better on his feet, and he should be able to keep it there.
Pick: Brandon Vera
Aaron Riley (-215) vs. Shane Nelson (+175) - Riley has more fights overall, and more in the UFC. That experience edge explains the difference in price. I'm not sure that it is warranted, though. Nelson has an edge in BJJ skills, and a real edge if the fighters leave their feet. At the very least, he is definitely worth a shot at this price.
Pick: Shane Nelson