2010-11 NFL Player Props and MVP Odds
by Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager - 8/13/2010
Peyton Manning has been named the NFL’s MVP for the past two seasons. All told he’s won the award four times, and he’s Bodog’s favorite to do it again this year.
We’ve got Manning’s odds to win the 2010 NFL MVP at 13/2, followed by Drew Brees at 15/2. Those two quarterbacks are followed by a couple of other stars at 10/1, Tom Brady and Chris Johnson. Also among the favorites: Aaron Rodgers (12/1), Maurice Jones-Drew (15/1), Philip Rivers (15/1), and Tony Romo (15/1).
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We’ve also made odds on a number of long shots, including Matthew Stafford at 50/1, the big number reflecting the rarity of a youngster taking home the award. History suggests the large majority of players are well-established when they’re named the best in the league.
Moreover, MVPs don’t typically come out of nowhere to win. Even Rich Gannon, who was named MVP in 2002 with the Oakland Raiders, had been named to the Pro Bowl the three previous years. That doesn’t mean there aren’t exceptions – Kurt Warner in 1999 comes to mind – but typically you’ll want to look for players who’ve been productive for at least a few years.
You’ll also want to look hard at the position he plays. If it’s anything other than a quarterback or running back, think twice about betting on him. The last non-quarterback or running back to win NFL MVP was Lawrence Taylor, who took home the award in 1986.
And if it’s comes down to picking a quarterback or running back, go with the former. In the last ten years, only three running backs have been named MVP – Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson – the rest going to QBs.
One medium shot that a number of bettors have gotten behind so far is Houston quarterback Matt Schaub at 28/1. That’s a tempting payout for a guy who threw for an NFL-best 4,770 yards last season with the Texans. Whether or not the departure of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will have a negative effect on his numbers is up for debate, but Schaub doesn’t seem to think things will be very different under Greg Knapp, who coached him in Atlanta.
"We're staying with what we do, because it was effective and it was good," Schaub said. "We just want to polish up some things and maybe be a little more consistent. But we're not going to change what we do."
Of course, to convince yourself that Schaub is MVP-worthy, you’ll also have to convince yourself that the Texans can put together a winning season, and that’s another thing altogether. We’ve got the Texans’ total wins at eight, although most bettors have been taking the over.
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