Super Bowl Odds Update at Bodog
by Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager - 11/4/2010
Good news. Bad news. It doesn’t appear to matter what kind of news it is, bettors will bet on the teams that are getting the most attention.
Consider the teams that we’re currently exposed on when it comes to our Bodog odds to win the Super Bowl: Dallas, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and St. Louis. All five of those teams made big headlines either before or after the 2010 NFL regular season began.
The Cowboys were a story because everyone was talking about the prospect of the Cowboys playing at home in the Super Bowl.
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The Vikings had the Brett Favre soap opera.
The Steelers had the Ben Roethlisberger soap opera.
The 49ers were almost everyone’s chic pick to win it all.
And the long-shot Rams had themselves the number one overall pick from the draft, Sam Bradford.
Of those five teams, only the Steelers (currently 15/2, down from 22/1) and Rams (80/1, down from 150/1) have seen their odds to win the Super Bowl fall since the beginning of the regular season, and the Steelers are the big team we’re worried about. If Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl today, it wouldn’t be good for us. Fortunately we’ve got time to reduce our exposure there.
Looking back, the Indianapolis Colts opened as the favorites at 17/2, their number falling slightly to 8/1 since then. The Steelers are the new favorites, tied with New England at 15/2. Those two are followed by Indianapolis and three other teams at 8/1, Baltimore and the two New York teams.
It’s only natural that the odds fall as bettors focus in on the teams that are playing well. While a team like Dallas received a ton of action prior to its nightmare start to the season, there aren’t many bettors who still believe they’ll be playing for a title, even at odds of 150/1.
One team that we’ll be monitoring closely on the NFL futures board over the next few weeks is New Orleans. The defending champion Saints opened the season at 10/1 but their odds have since risen to 12/1 after a so-so start by Drew Brees and company.
If you think the Saints are still legitimate contenders, now might be the time to get down on them, because if they start racking up wins again, expect their odds to fall dramatically.
New Orleans has two winnable games, plus a bye week, over the next few weeks. The Saints play Carolina on Sunday, get a week off, then host Seattle. If they come out of that stretch with a 7-3 record, 12/1 might be a distant memory.
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