It was another good week for the Public Action Report last week. Out of seven games that fit the criteria, not only did four cover the spread, but they were all outright winners as underdogs. The highlight was UCLA — they pulled off a win as 8.5-point underdogs against Arizona State.

With six games that fit the criteria this week let’s hope we can have another big weekend like that.

We haven’t done so for a couple of weeks, so let’s revisit the criteria. The Public Action Report isn’t an objective report — my opinions don’t factor in at all. The games that get identified each week are only the ones that fit the criteria that I have developed.

We are looking for games in which at least 70 percent of all bets placed have been on one team. Typically, we would see the line for that team get less attractive as books look to slow down the betting action on them to limit their risk.

Sometimes, though, we will see games in which the more popular team actually sees their line move so that it is more attractive. There are two main reasons why a sportsbook would make a move like this — either a lot of money is pouring in from a few smart bettors on the less popular team, or for some reason the books aren’t afraid of action on the more popular team because they don’t think that team is going to cover the spread.

Either way, movement like this is a pretty good indicator that the less popular team is worth a close look. I don’t recommend that you bet on the teams blindly, but this can be a strong road map to lead you to value-filled positions, and away from teams you might want to avoid.

College Football

Purdue (+7) vs. Ohio State (Saturday, Nov. 12, 12 p.m. ET) - More than 80 percent of bets have been on the Buckeyes, yet the line opened at 7.5 and has moved to the key number of seven. That means that the Boilermakers are worth a look. Purdue is not a good road team, but they have been playing teams very tough at home. Ohio State could be distracted by the latest developments in their NCAA violation saga this week, and they are still playing with a very raw young quarterback who is impressive but not yet reliable.

Illinois (-1) vs. Michigan (Saturday, Nov. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET) - Three-quarters of all bets have come in on the Wolverines, yet the line has shifted from +1 to -1. That means that Illinois is worth a look here. Illinois has lost three in a row, but they have played well against Michigan lately, and they have been a much better team at home than on the road. Michigan has some issues that have emerged recently — especially away from the Big House. Denard Robinson and the offense are really struggling with the transition away from the spread recently, and their confidence is not as high as it should be.

Texas A&M (-5.5) at Kansas State (Saturday, Nov. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET) - It’s not too often that the Public Action Report identifies a favorite, so this is notable. More than 85 percent of bets have been on the Wildcats, yet the line has move from +3 to +5.5. That means that we should be looking closely at the Aggies here. To be honest I don’t really understand why the Wildcats are so popular here. Both teams have lost two in a row, and the Aggies play reasonably well on the road if they aren’t playing an elite team. They are deserving favorites, so this game makes sense to me.

Central Florida (+9) at Southern Mississippi (Saturday, Nov. 12, 8 p.m. ET) - More than 80 percent of bettors have backed Brett Favre’s alma mater, yet the line has dropped from 10.5 to nine. That’s a move through a key number, so it is particularly interesting, and it points us to Central Florida. Southern Miss is very hot right now, but Central Florida could be motivated by the issues swirling around their program right now.

NFL

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, Nov.13, 4 p.m. ET) - The public loves the Ravens — more than 90 percent of bets have been on them in this one. Despite that, though, the line opened at 7.5 and has fallen through the key number of seven to 6.5. That’s a strong sign that Seattle is worth a look. The Seahawks have struggled badly this year, but they are always a tougher team at home than on the road, and Baltimore is a very inconsistent road team that could be in for a letdown after a very emotional win in Pittsburgh last week.