NFL Preseason Betting Advice and Tips
"Who the hell bets on preseason football?"
- Robert Ferringo, circa 2006
I will admit that I used to think that only masochists and addicts would wager good money on preseason football games.
I will also admit that I was wrong.
As it turns out, betting on preseason football is actually pretty profitable and a worthwhile venture for someone looking to boost their bankroll prior to the season. What seems like chaos to the untrained eye is actually pretty formulaic. And I feel that betting on preseason games is not only a way to bank some early winners but also a great way to get a feel for teams and to get back into the habit and flow of weekly wagering on these carbon fiber-clad warriors.
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I'm here today to give you some tips, tricks, indicators, and strategies for betting the NFL exhibition season. Obviously, preseason football betting is a bit different than how you would approach a regular-season wager. It is the same sport, but preseason football is a different game. The motivational factors are different. The way the numbers are set and what the movements mean are different. Even how much you should wager on these games is different.
But in a lot of ways it's still the same. I mean, they aren't playing jai alai after the two-minute warning or anything. Betting is betting and football is football: may the most violent and unrelenting man win. So here are some things to key on when you consider betting on the NFL Preseason:
This one is obvious. Teams that can go two- and three-deep at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first series. A perfect example is that a team like the Carolina Panthers, who have proven vets and former starters Derek Anderson and Joe Webb as their No. 2 and No. 3 quarterbacks, respectively. That gives them a big edge over a team like Indianapolis, which has a steep drop-off from starter Andrew Luck (who is out with an injury) to No. 2 Scott Tolzien, No. 3 Stephen Morris and No. 4 Phil Walker.
Quarterbacks are key. Preseason wagers, just like those during the Real Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have a No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback that has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third- or fourth-string defense.
I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, that can be a detriment. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".
However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, Cincinnati has been running Marvin Lewis' systems for years. They're going to be much sharper than the Washington Redskins, who are breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators. Keying on clubs that have familiarity and continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems, is a big key for betting on the preseason.
Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third. Some coaches just dick around and tinker with their lineups during the Fake Games. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan is. Many honchos make it known in the media before the game what their goals and game plans are. And unlike the regular season, in which disinformation rules, you can usually take coaches at their word in August.
Further, key position battles can influence the amount of emotion or intensity that a team brings to the field in its exhibition games. Pay close attention to quarterback, running back, and linebacker competitions.
The preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. For instance, Seattle opens at against Los Angeles on Sunday, Aug. 13. Then they have to come back five days later to host Minnesota on Friday, Aug. 18. If some people are a bit banged up then you can expect the Seahawks to nurse the wounded in that second game. The Giants actually play three preseason games in 10 days, starting with a Monday night dance at Cleveland on Aug. 21 and ending with their final tune up at New England on Aug. 31. There's a game against the rival Jets in between, so I would expect the Giants to be wiped out by the time they head to Foxboro.
Also, one favorite angle for bettors is based on the belief that a team that's entering its second exhibition game against a team playing its first has a tremendous edge because they've gotten a lot of the rust and jitters out. I have no empirical data to refute or confirm that suspicion, but I do agree that it's a solid premise.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past five years, earning nearly $14,000 in total football profit. He has also posted five of seven winning seasons (including a winning 2016-17) and Robert tallied over $20,000 in football profit between 2011 and 2016, including his amazing 2013 NFL season in which he hit 62.1 percent (95-58). Robert has produced 18 of 29 winning football months and an amazing 41 of 64 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 800 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons Robert is looking to follow up a winning 2016 with more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR EARLY BIRD SPECIALS !
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