Handicapping the NHL Western Conference Playoff Race

by Trevor Whenham - 3/19/2018

The race for the final few playoff spots in the NHL's Western Conference is intense. Every team in the mix right now has 10 or fewer games remaining, and there are seven teams fighting for five open spots. Vegas has, impossibly, sealed the division win in the Pacific, and in the Central Nashville has the best record in the league -- and while Winnipeg is well behind them they are still very secure and very dangerous. But the rest is wide open.

The race isn't quite as contentious as it has been because my hometown Calgary Flames have shown a total lack of character and determination at just the wrong time, and they have essentially ended their playoff hopes in the last week of dismal play. But there is still lots of intrigue, and a couple of good teams will be on the golf course sooner than they would like. Here's how things shape up (odds to win the Western Conference are from BetOnline ):

San Jose (+1000): The Sharks are in the best shape in the Pacific and are very close to not belonging here. They are almost secure in a playoff spot, though it remains to be seen what spot that is. They have 89 points, which gives them a three-point lead on the Ducks and five on the Kings. They have a game in hand on the Ducks as well. The Kings hold the last wild-card spot as well, so they have a five-point cushion there. Given that they have just 10 games remaining and are a strong 7-2-1 in their prior 10, they are probably just fine. And Evander Kane has been a great deadline addition - he had four goals against Calgary. They have a tricky enough remaining schedule, though, that nothing is guaranteed. They are far more likely to be in than out, though.

Minnesota (+1000): The Wild also have 89 points in 72 games, but that is only good for third in the Central, and they are eight points behind Winnipeg, so their margin for error is smaller than San Jose's - remember, the top three teams in a division automatically make the playoffs and then the next two best records in the conference are wild cards. The biggest thing working against them, though, is a schedule that is just brutal. They play Dallas, Nashville and L.A. twice each and they finish the season on a three-game California road trip. On the plus side, playing many of their biggest playoff rivals means they control their own destiny. But each game is crucially important, and things could get ugly. They really should get in, but falling short wouldn't be a shock against this schedule.

Colorado (+1600): For Minnesota to get knocked out, someone - most likely Colorado - has to pass them. The Avalanche are a surprising team as earlier in the season they seemed to be in garage sale mode. Now, though, Nathan MacKinnon has emerged as a Top 5 NHLer, and the team is dangerous. They have 86 points, so they have to watch for attacks from behind as much as they take aim at Minnesota. Their schedule is a hair easier than Minnesota's, but they don't play the Wild - head-to-head games are the easiest way to close a gap. I don't see them catching the Wild but would be quite surprised if they don't make it into the playoffs somewhere.

Dallas (+2500): The Stars are a massive disappointment. They had a great offseason, but Ben Bishop and Martin Hanzal can't stay healthy, and other injuries have been a factor, too. And they are a much better and different team at home than on the road. They should be much better than they are. With only 84 points and one fewer game remaining, they aren't catching Minnesota. That puts them in the wild-card hunt. They finish with Minnesota twice followed by all three California teams, so if they got hot at the right time they could really do some damage. But four of those five games are on the road where they are well below .500, so I lack faith. And they are just 2-4-4 in their last 10. I would like to see them in, and wouldn't want to play them, but they are more likely out.

St. Louis (+2500): The team went on a skid near the trade deadline and traded away Paul Stastny. But they have still stayed in the fight. They have struggled with consistency, though, and are a point behind Dallas. I would bet on them falling short as well.

Anaheim (+800): With 86 points, they are sitting in third in the Pacific, two points ahead of the Kings - though L.A. has a game in hand. They are also tied with Colorado, which is the top wild-card team. This is a veteran team that peaks in the playoffs, and they are playing well right now. They also have a very nice schedule - four very manageable road games in Calgary, Edmonton Vancouver and Phoenix, and home games against playoff rivals L.A., Minnesota, Dallas and Colorado. It would be tough to have a more favorable schedule in a race like this, and Anaheim is close to a playoff lock - as close as you can be in these circumstances, anyway.

Los Angeles (+2000): The Kings are tied with Dallas for the final playoff spot, and they are two points back of Anaheim, with a game in hand, for third in the Pacific. They also play Minnesota and Colorado twice, and play Anaheim and Dallas, so they control their own fate. This is an elite defensive team, and they are getting great goaltending, so in my eyes they are more likely in than out, but the margin for error is razor thin. They start a four-game road trip on Monday night, with the first three against very good teams. They need to shine there or the picture gets much dimmer.

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Handicapping the NHL Western Conference Playoff Race

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