PGA Picks: 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Predictions with Betting Odds
The tournament has several new elements to it. First, there has been a course change to TPC Craig Ranch, where this event is guaranteed to be held the next five years. Next, the Byron Nelson is now the week before the PGA Championship, which likely caused trepidation, wondering what kind of field they would draw on a new course and who would want to tune up their game. Fortunately, it worked out for this event, as many of the top players wanted to sharpen the skills one last time before heading to the Kiawah Island Golf Resort next week.
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With a new course setup, history tells us the PGA will favor the players (and when don’t they?) and make the layout rather simple with few tricks, wanting these same players and others to come back next year. Make it too difficult, they won’t return if a major is next.
A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 with the lowest golf odds to win it all.
Bryson DeChambeau +850 - Jon Rahm +875 - Jordan Spieth +1100 - Daniel Berger +1800
Scottie Scheffler +1800 – Brooks Koepka +2000 - Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2200 - Will Zalatoris +2200 - Marc Leishman +3000
Sam Burns +3300 - Ryan Palmer +3500
It is not a surprise that most of the top contenders are in the Top 40 in driving distance. This is a straightforward golf course, as we’ll explain below. If you hit it deep and can avoid major trouble, there are an ample number of holes that a driver and a short iron give you a shot at a birdie.
DeChambeau, Rahm, Scheffler, Koepka, Zalatoris and Burns all meet the requirements of having the ability to use those two clubs on 14 of the 18 holes. The favorites, DeChambeau and Rahm in particular, have the skill to do so more consistently over four days, but any other others could shoot low numbers over three rounds and be a factor.
We are not sure Berger and Fitzpatrick are truly threats to win, but review their golf odds at online betting sites and there might be value for the Top 20 or head-to-head plays.
Speith has enough length to score well and now that his ability to scramble and having the confidence to drain putts has returned, he can be a factor.
Leishman and Palmer are going to attract attention, as both are in good form and they have shown no inclination of being unsteady.
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
The setup of this course favors those who like to hit tee shots far with minimum penalty. The scorecard should read 7,468 yards.
A few elements to consider. All the par 5’s are under 570 yards and generally wide open. That will allow most golfers to try and reach them in two shots to set up eagle and birdie chances. This favors the longer hitter.
The par 4’s offer a good variety of length and hole coverage. Where things get fun on this collection is on the sixth hole at just 361 yards and the 14th is only 330 yards. Depending on the wind conditions, No. 6 will attract the longest hitters trying to reach it or just hit a flip wedge in. No. 14 has water down the left side, making anything hooked by right hand players a possibility to get wet. Otherwise, the hole has strategic bunkers, with most easy enough to scramble out of. More birdie chances.
The par 3’s have a trio over 215 yards, which could add strokes on this course’s averaged-sized greens. The other par 3 is only 147 yards, making it interesting to see how that hole is attacked.
Low scores are expected unless the wind is a factor, and those with distance will have an edge. Nonetheless, the shorter in length individual that can hit it tight with his irons can negate length and if making putts, can win.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week
For golf picks this week, we are going to be chalky on an unknown course that by all accounts will favor long hitters.
Sprinkling a little cash on DeChambeau and Rahm to win, Top 5 or head-to-head, is not a bad idea, as both are capable. We like Rahm a bit more coming off a missed cut last week.
Speith and Scheffler are both Texas natives and will feel right at home even on a new track. Each has been sharp. Speith has been playing incredible golf for the last three months, with a win at the Texas Open and four other top 4's over his last seven starts in stroke play. Scheffler is 29th in greens in regulation and 17th in birdies, making him a factor.
Zalatoris is our last choice, ranking 20th in distance, 22nd in GIR and 12th in scoring average on the PGA Tour, and should be a real factor.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports was in the golf business for over 20+ years and understands the ins and outs of what it takes to find winners on the Tour. He’s coming off another winning week and is primed for more.
Doug Upstone of Doc’s Sports has - 21 Documented No. 1 Titles - 94 Documented Top 10 Finishes - 24 Handicapper of the Month Awards. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several football newsletters.