2018 New York Mets Expert Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

It has been only two seasons since the New York Mets last appeared in the World Series, but don't tell their fan base that. It feels like forever ago, and the Mets don't appear to be any closer to returning to the Fall Classic than they are to having one of the worst records in the Majors.

Last season the Mets finished with a record of 70-92, which was good enough for third place in the NL East, 27 games back of the division-winning Nationals. The Mets were riddled with injuries to their starting rotation as seemingly every single starting pitcher missed extended time due to a variety of injuries. The Mets also struggled offensively thanks in large part to a roster that is mostly comprised of other team's outcasts.

The New York Mets kick off their 2018 campaign on March 29 with a six-game homestand that will see the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies roll through Citi Field for three-game sets. From there, the Mets will visit the Nation's Capital to take on the Washington Nationals before heading to Miami for a set with the Marlins. Coming into this season, the Mets sit at +3300 to win the World Series, +1200 to win the NL Pennant and +425 to win the NL East. Their season win total sits at 81 ("over" -160), which to me means their season can either be really good or really bad.

All odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Mets 2018 Projected Lineup

The Met's made somewhat of a splash this offseason as they were able to acquire Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez via free agency from the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. As of writing this, the Mets' batting lineup looks something like this:

1. Asdrubal Cabrera

2. Todd Frazier

3. Yoenis Cespedes

4. Jay Bruce

5. Adrian Gonzalez

6. Travis dArnaud

7. Amed Rosario

8. Juan Lagares

9. Pitchers Spot

As you can see, this Mets' lineup features a lot of power but also a lot of swings and misses. It is also void of any legitimate speed on the bases and has gotten relatively older with the additions of Frazier and Gonzalez. However, I do like the Frazier signing. He is coming off a 2017 campaign where he split time between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees. He hit 27 home runs in all and contributed 76 RBIs. He is exactly the type of player that you want batting in front of your big bats.

Cespedes and Bruce combined to hit 53 home runs and drive in 143 runs last season. Those numbers aren't all that bad considering Cespedes played in just 81 games. Bruce was traded to the Indians mid-season last for the playoff push but is back the ballpark he's had excellent success at. Behind these two key players is Gonzalez. Gonzalez is coming off an incredibly poor season that saw him play just 71 games and contribute three homers and 30 RBIs to the Dodgers' cause. A healthy and motivated Gonzalez can give opposing pitchers nightmares and have his production skyrocket.

Further down the lineup, you'll find Travis dArnaud batting sixth and doing the catching, Amed Rosario batting seventh and playing shortstop, and Juan Lagares batting eighth and playing the outfield. This threesome doesn't exactly make up a terrifying bottom of the order, but they did combine to hit 23 home runs and 82 RBIs in very limited appearances.

Mets 2018 Projected Rotation & Closer

On paper, the New York Mets should have one of the best rotations in the Majors. Unfortunately, the game isn't played on paper, thus leaving the Mets with their fingers crossed that their starting rotation will hold up over the course of 162 games. There is no mistaking who the "ace" of the staff is. Noah Syndergaard has the capabilities to be one of the best pitchers in the Majors, but he must stay healthy in order to do so. He pitched just 30 innings last year due to a lat injury but was able to keep his ERA under 2.95 and strike out 34 batters. His health will be vital to how far the Mets go this season, and any more missed time due to injury could potentially end the relationship between Syndergaard and the Mets organization.

Behind Syndergaard, the Mets will rely on a quartet of pitchers that includes Jacob deGrom, Jason Vargas, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. The Mets also have Seth Lugo, Steven Matz and Robert Gsellman to step into the rotation at a moment's notice. DeGrom is the most talented of these pitchers and had a solid 2017 campaign where he pitched to a 15-10 record with a 3.53 ERA and 239 strikeouts. deGrom is currently dealing with a back injury and is questionable to begin the season in the rotation.

The Mets have also been plagued by a bad bullpen over the last couple of seasons. This year they will likely rely on closer-by-committee- type role, which includes A.J Ramos and Jeurys Familia. Ramos was acquired mid-season last year from the Marlins and was able to convert 27 save opportunities in all. Hansel Robles, Jerry Blevins and Rafael Montero are all back for the Mets in a relief/setup type role.

Mets 2018 Predictions

FanGraphs projects New York to improve by 11 games this year to a record of 81-81. If that's not the most mediocre improvement then I don't know what is. The Mets are just two seasons removed from making a World Series, so to expecting them to fight and claw their way back to .500 this year is a sign of just how lucky that season was. It's hard to imagine the Mets suffering from the same injury issues that derailed the 2017 season, so I'm going to take a chance that the rotation holds up and the Mets finish one or two games above .500. Take the "over" 81 (-160).

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