Free MLB Picks for Saturday, July 13, 2019
We looked at updated Bovada Rookie of the Year odds in Friday's Opening Line Report, and today let's take a quick look at some other individual props. For the Cy Young, no surprise as Washington's Max Scherzer is -190 in the National League to join a very select group of four-time winners, while Houston's Justin Verlander (Scherzer's former Tigers teammate) is the +155 favorite in the American League to win his second. For AL MVP, ho-hum, the Angels' Mike Trout is a heavy -500 favorite to win his third. The Dodgers' Cody Bellinger (-105) is just ahead of defending NL MVP Christian Yelich (+160) of the Brewers in the Senior Circuit. Yelich and Bellinger are each +220 to lead the majors in homers. And surprise Mets All-Star Jeff McNeil is +160 to lead the majors in batting, which he currently does.
Game 1: Rays at Orioles (TBA)
A 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch from Camden Yards in the opener of a day-night doubleheader. The Orioles are atrocious and on pace to potentially lose the most home games in MLB history (59 is record), but one huge bright spot has been relative unknown lefty John Means (7-4, 2.50), who was the team's All-Star on Tuesday. His final pre-break start was at Tampa Bay, and Means allowed two earned over seven in a no-decision. Guy was a long shot just to make the roster coming out of spring. Tampa lefty Brendan McKay (1-0, 2.45) remains one of MLB's top prospects with just two starts under his belt. This will be his first on the road.
Key trends: The Orioles are 1-6 in their past seven openers of a doubleheader. The "over/under" has gone under in five of Means' past seven at home.
Early lean: Probably should have known better than to do a DH game as there's always the chance the Birds could flip-flop guys. I like the Rays regardless. McKay is that nasty.
Twins at Indians (-135, 9)
Minnesota's Jake Odorizzi (10-4, 3.15) was named to his first All-Star team and would have been in consideration to start Tuesday's game, but he was placed on the injured list before the break with a blister on his right middle finger. Odorizzi has been slipping a bit of late, allowing 17 runs over his past four starts. His season debut was March 30 vs. Cleveland, and he allowed one run and one hit with 11 strikeouts but took a no-decision. Francisco Lindor is 6-for-17 with two homers off him. Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (8-6, 3.61) reportedly is very available on the trade market, although it would be hard for Indians ownership to deal him if the team is still in the division and Wild-Card races. Bauer is 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA in his past six starts and 6-8 with a 4.35 ERA career vs. Minnesota.
Key trends: The Twins have lost six straight Odorizzi starts vs. the Tribe. The under is 5-2 in Bauer's previous seven against Minnesota.
Early lean: Indians and under.
Mets at Marlins (+140, 8)
Reportedly, a handful of teams are scouting the Mets' Noah Syndergaard (6-4, 4.68), who could certainly be an over-the-top addition for a contender. If the Yankees, Astros or Dodgers get him, forget it. Doubt Thor is traded as his value isn't the best right now and Mets fans would revolt. Syndergaard had a 5.94 ERA over his final three starts before the break. He lost in Miami on May 19 (7 IP, 2 ER). The Marlins' Zac Gallen (0-1, 4.50) makes his fourth MLB start. He was pretty good his first two but lasted two innings last time out vs. the Nationals in part due to a rain delay. It's his first look at the Mets.
Key trends: The Mets are 6-2 in Syndergaard's past eight vs. the Marlins. The under is 4-0-2 in his previous six against them.
Early lean: Mets and under.
Tigers at Royals (-113, 9)
Every day, there's a new trade rumor involving Detroit's Matthew Boyd, although most involve him to the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros or Brewers. I highly doubt he's with Detroit on Aug. 1. GM Al Avila has flat-out admitted taking calls but says teams aren't putting their best offers on the table yet. Boyd (6-6, 3.87) won at the White Sox on July 4, allowing four runs over 5.1 innings with 13 strikeouts. He's 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Royals. Kansas City's Brad Keller (4-9, 4.47) is 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA in two starts against Detroit in 2019. Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-5 with a double against him.
Key trends: The Royals are 5-1 in Keller's past six at home vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 10-3-1 in Boyd's previous six against Kansas City.
Early lean: Royals and over.
Dodgers at Red Sox (-168, 9.5)
Fox national TV game. The Dodgers got a lot better on Friday in activating both shortstop Corey Seager and outfielder AJ Pollock from long absences on the injury list. Could be the last start for the Dodgers' Ross Stripling (3-3, 3.79) as he makes his fourth in place of the injured Rich Hill. Stripling didn't complete five innings in any of the previous three and has allowed four earned in each of the past two. He might go back to the bullpen. Boston's Mookie Betts is 2-for-3 career against Stripling. Red Sox lefty Chris Sale (3-8, 4.04) was not good his final two pre-break starts, allowing a combined 10 runs and 15 hits over 11.2 innings. He's still striking out guys left and right. Sale pitched twice vs. L.A. in the Fall Classic (once in relief) and gave up three runs over five innings with 10 strikeouts.
Key trends: The Sox have won five straight Sale starts when he has at least nine days of rest. The under is 16-5-3 in Stripling's past 24 on the road.
Early lean: Red Sox and over.
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