Kansas State at Kansas Picks and NCAA Basketball Odds
by Alan Matthews - 2/11/2013
If you look up the definition of the world rivalry, you will see competition listed under its meanings. Thus, when Kansas State fans say they have a heated rivalry with Kansas, well, that’s simply incorrect (in reality Missouri-Kansas was much more fierce). Why? KSU has lost 45 of the past 48 meetings with the big-brother Jayhawks.
Kansas has won or shared the Big 12 regular-season title a mind-boggling eight straight seasons. That streak will be in major jeopardy should the suddenly skidding Jayhawks lose Monday night against K-State.
Kansas State at Kansas Betting Story Lines
Kansas (19-4, 7-3) rose to No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll two weeks ago today, but the No. 1 curse has hit KU hard. You could sort of understand an 85-80 loss to Oklahoma State on Feb. 2, although it ended KU’s 18-game overall winning streak, 33-game home winning streak and 16-game home winning streak against the Cowboys. But OSU is a solid team.
There is no explanation for Kansas’ 62-55 loss at TCU on Feb. 6. The Frogs are one of the worst BCS conference teams out there and had been winless in Big 12 play before the upset. It was the school’s first-ever win over a Top-5 team. It was KU’s first two-game losing streak since January 2006. I would argue that was the second-biggest upset of the year after only Division II Chaminade’s stunner over Texas back in November. KU coach Bill Self had the quote of the year after the TCU loss, saying: "It was the worst team that Kansas ever put on the floor, since Dr. Naismith was there. I think he had some bad teams when he lost to Topeka YMCA and things like that in the first couple years. But for the first half, there hasn't been a team play worse than that offensively."
Self actually was somewhat happy with Kansas’ effort on Saturday, a 72-66 loss at Oklahoma, a team KU beat by 13 earlier in Lawrence. It was Oklahoma’s first win over a Top-5 team in seven years, ended a 10-game skid to KU and was a huge boost to the Sooners’ NCAA Tournament resume. It’s Kansas’ first three-game skid in eight years. And it’s the first time the school has lost three straight to unranked teams since 1988, although that year ended with Danny Manning carrying KU to the national title.
So what’s been the problem? In its 19-1 start, Kansas held opponents to just 35.0 percent shooting and 58.7 points per game. In the past three, those numbers are 42.7 and 73.0, respectively. Should the Jayhawks, who still lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense, lose here they would fall two games behind Kansas State in the loss column.
The Wildcats (19-4, 8-2) enter on a four-game winning streak. They beat Iowa State 79-70 in Manhattan on Saturday in what could have been a major trap game. Stars Rodney McGruder and Angel Rodriguez combined for 42 points. Should KSU win tonight, it would be an upset for it not to win its first Big 12 regular-season title, although it does still have to visit Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Of course, K-State is coached by Bruce Weber, who replaced Self at Illinois when Self left for Kansas.
The Wildcats have not been in first place in the league standings this late in the year since 2008. It’s the first time K-State will visit Allen Fieldhouse in first place since Jan. 30, 1988 when the Wildcats beat Kansas.
The Jayhawks won 59-55 over Kansas State on Jan. 22 in Manhattan. The Wildcats shot just 35.1 percent from the field overall and 30 percent from long range. Travis Releford led Kansas with 12 points, while Shane Southwell led KSU with a career-high 19 points and seven boards. KU was -3.5 in that one with the total at 127.5.
Kansas State at Kansas NCAA Betting Odds and Key Trends
At WagerWeb, Kansas is an eight-point favorite with the total at 132. K-State is 9-9-1 ATS (2-3-1 on road) and 7-7 over/under (3-3 on road). KU is 9-13 ATS (5-6 at home) and 9-10 “over/under” (5-4 at home).
KSU is 5-2-1 ATS in its past eight after a win. Kansas is 2-5 in its past seven games after a loss. It is 0-4 ATS in its past four Big 12 games. The under is 5-2 in KSU’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Kansas’ past eight Monday games. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings. KSU is 0-6 ATS in the past six at Kansas.
Kansas State at Kansas Picks and Betting Predictions
Kansas is 2-1 against ranked teams this year, while KSU is 2-3. The Wildcats are going to be jacked up to play and are a solid 5-1 in true road games this year. However, they have lost six straight and 16 of the past 17 in Lawrence. KU has won 12 of the past 16 meetings, including five in a row, when both are ranked. This will be a very rare time that KSU will be the higher-ranked club.
Kansas needs to be leading at halftime as it hasn’t in each of the past three losses. I have no doubt KU bounces back with a win, but eight points is too many. Take KSU and the under.
Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s college basketball picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please on any of our top college basketball handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
Get all of this Weeks College Basketball Picks
Get all of this Weeks guaranteed Expert College Basketball Picks