NC State at Duke Picks and NCAA Basketball Odds
by Dave Schwab - 2/7/2013
The North Carolina State Wolfpack will be looking to pull off a rare regular-season sweep of the No.4 Duke Blue Devils this Thursday night when the two ACC foes square off at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This conference clash is scheduled to tip off at 9 p.m. (ET), and the game will be available on ESPN3.
Ever since NC State upset the Blue Devils by eight points as a one-point home underdog on Jan.12, it has been a rough ride with a 2-4 straight-up record in its next six games. It is now 16-6 SU on the year and 11-9 against the spread. The total has gone “over” in three of its last four games.
Duke’s fortunes since that first setback took a turn for the worse with a 27-point road loss to Miami just two games later. Since then, it has won its last three games to improve to 19-2 SU (12-9 ATS) overall. The Blue Devils are a perfect 11-0 SU at home but just 5-6 ATS. The total has gone over in five of their last six games.
NC State at Duke Betting Storylines
While the Wolfpack remain one of the top shooting teams in the nation with a 50.4 field goal percentage, that number drops significantly on the road to 44.5 percent. This has had a dramatic effect on a scoring average that goes from 78.5 points a game overall to just 67.8 points in nine road games this season.
If they are going to hold it together in front of one of the toughest crowds in college basketball, the Wolfpack will need CJ Leslie and Richard Howell to elevate their games to a whole new level. Leslie is the team’s highest scorer with 15.7 points a game while pulling down 7.5 rebounds, and Howell is averaging 12.8 points and 10.9 rebounds a game. The spotlight could really be on these two if Lorenzo Brown is unable to go after injuring his ankle in last week’s loss to Virginia. He is also scoring over 12 points a game and has a team-high average of 6.9 assists.
Duke just has to keep doing what it does best to avenge the earlier loss. This team is deep with talent and has five different players scoring more than 11 points a game led by Mason Plumlee’s 17.6 points and Seth Curry’s 16.3 points a game. Plumlee has also been a force under the boards with 10.8 rebounds, and Curry is shooting a solid 45.4 percent from the field. He has also been deadly from three-point range; hitting 43.2 percent of his attempts.
Seeing how both of Duke’s losses this season came on the road, it should be able to completely control the tempo of this game playing at Cameron. Overall the team is shooting 48.4 percent from the field at home while averaging 80.2 points a game. This compares with an overall field goal percentage of 47.3 and 78 points a game, which is still pretty darn good.
NC State at Duke Betting Odds and Trends
The Wolfpack are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the ACC. The total has gone over in 13 of their last 18 conference games.
The Blue Devils are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against ACC opponents and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The total has gone over in 13 of their last 17 games against a team with a winning record.
The underdog in this series has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the total has gone over in five of the last seven meetings play at Duke. Before this season’s loss, Duke had won the three previous games SU.
NC State at Duke Picks and Betting Predictions
The recent trends in this series tend to favor NC State covering with the points in this matchup, but with Brown most likely on the shelf along with the revenge factor that Duke will most certainly bring into this game, they are significantly negated. Stick the Blue Devils to not only win this time around but cover the 10.5 points at home with relative ease
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