Wright State vs. Valparaiso Picks and NCAA Betting Odds
by Dave Schwab - 3/12/2013
This Tuesday night’s Horizon League Tournament Championship features a showdown between the No.3 seed Wright State Raiders and the No.1 seed Valparaiso Crusaders with an automatic berth in this year’s NCAA Tournament on the line. Tip off for this title bout from UIC Pavilion in Chicago is scheduled for 9 p.m. (ET), and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Wright State started its run to this title game with a 66-59 victory over Youngstown State in Friday’s quarterfinals as a 3.5-point favorite. It punched its ticket for Tuesday night by upsetting Detroit, 56-54, on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. The total was split 1-1 in the two games.
The Crusaders earned a bye all the way to Saturday’s semifinals and made the most of the extra rest in a one-point 70-69 squeaker over Green Bay as nine-point favorites. It was their ninth straight up win in their last 10 games dating back to Feb.1
Wright State vs. Valparaiso Betting Storylines
The Raiders will have to rely heavily on a defense that is holding teams to an average of 59.8 points a game to have any chance at slowing down Valpo in this game. With the loss of Cole Darling to a foot injury, nobody else on the team is averaging more than 10 points a game. Even with him in the lineup, they were ranked in the bottom-third of Division I in scoring with an average of 61.9 points a game and shooting 43.6 percent from the field.
In the first of two meetings in the regular season, Wright State covered as a nine-point road underdog in a 69-63 loss. It came up short again at home on Feb.12 in a 68-61 loss with the line closing as a “pick”. The total went over in both of these contests.
Valparaiso has been the class of the Horizon League all season long with a 12-3 SU record in conference play and an overall record of 25-7 SU. It is 17-11-1 ATS, which is comparable to Wright State’s 18-11 record ATS. It has been much more proficient on the offensive end of the court with an average of 72 points a game.
The Crusaders have a pair of players scoring in double-figures led by Ryan Broekhoff’s 16.2 points a game. He is shooting 46.1 percent from the floor and 44 percent from three-point range while the team is shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. Defensively, they are allowing an average of 59.1 points a game.
Wright State vs. Valparaiso NCAA Betting Odds and Trends
The Raiders are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road. The total has stayed “under” in five of their last seven road games.
The Crusaders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The total has gone “over” in 11 of their last 14 games following a SU win.
Head-to-head in this matchup, Wright State has gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to UIC Pavilion and the total has gone over in 10 of the last 14 games overall.
Wright State vs. Valparaiso Picks and Betting Predictions
The Crusaders have a distinct edge playing this championship game at home, and they are clearly the better all-around team, especially shooting the ball. While it remains highly doubtful that Wright State will be able to get out of Chicago with a SU win, it remains a solid play to cover with the six points in what turns out to be a very tight game.
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