Illinois Fighting Illini vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, 1/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Iowa Hawkeyes

Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026

Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA

TV: ESPN+

Carver-Hawkeye Arena is the site where the Iowa Hawkeyes (12-3) will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (11-3) on Sunday.

The Illinois Fighting Illini faced Rutgers and went home with a win by a final score of 81-55 in their last contest. Illinois finished with a 44.1% FG percentage (26 out of 59) and knocked down 11 out of their 31 three-point shots. At the free throw line, the Fighting Illini knocked down 18 of their 21 attempts for a rate of 85.7%. Pertaining to grabbing boards, they compiled 41 with 9 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 13 assists in this matchup while forcing the opposition into 7 turnovers and having 2 steals. In reference to defending, Illinois allowed the other team to go 36.5% from the floor on 23 of 63 shooting. Rutgers doled out 8 assists and had 5 steals in this contest. Moreover, Rutgers pulled down 30 rebounds (9 offensive, 21 defensive), but wrapped up the game with no rejections. Rutgers shot 37.5% when shooting free throws by making 3 of 8 tries. They buried 6 of their 22 shots from beyond the perimeter. In reference to personal fouls, the Fighting Illini left the arena with 8 and Rutgers totaled 20 personal fouls.

Keaton Wagler is a player who played a role in this game. He walked away from this one shooting 41.7% from the field and totaled 3 assists. He was on the hardwood for 32 mins and collected 7 boards. He ended up scoring 17 points on 5 of 12 shooting.

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Illinois comes into this matchup with a win-loss record of 11-3 this year. They are turning it over 10.0 times per game and as a unit are committing 13.9 personal fouls every game. As a unit, Illinois is pulling in 42.4 boards per contest and has totaled 209 assists for the season, which has them ranked 240th in D-1 in terms of passing the ball. The Fighting Illini are connecting on 34.7% on 3-point shots (143 of 412) and 79.3% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 87.1 points per contest (29th in the nation) while connecting on 47.8% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Fighting Illini are forcing 8.6 turnovers per contest and they draw 21.1 personal fouls. They are giving up 31.1% on three-point shots and they are ranked 66th in D-1 in points per game allowed (68.2). The Fighting Illini defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 39.6% (358 of 903) and they surrender 31.0 rebounds per contest as a team. They are ranked 47th in the nation in allowing assists to the opposition with 170 relinquished on the campaign.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Iowa Hawkeyes took a loss by a score of 70-67 when they faced Minnesota. The Hawkeyes recorded 24 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive boards totaling 34 in the game. They also coughed up the ball 13 times, while getting 5 steals for the game. Minnesota earned 17 personal fouls for the contest which got the Hawkeyes to the charity stripe for a total of 13 tries. They were able to knock down 10 of them for a percentage of 76.9%. Regarding shooting from beyond the arc, Iowa made 7 of 26 attempts (26.9%). Overall, the Hawkeyes walked away from this one shooting 25 for 63 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 39.7%. The Hawkeyes allowed Minnesota to bury 22 of 47 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 46.8% in the matchup. They shot 25.0% from distance by shooting 5 out of 20 and ended up going 21 out of 28 at the charity stripe (75.0%). Regarding cleaning the glass, Iowa allowed Minnesota to collect 25 overall (3 on the offensive glass).

Bennett Stirtz pitched in for the Hawkeyes in this matchup. He had 21 points in his 29 mins on the hardwood and had 2 assists in this game. He buried 6 of 17 in this game giving him a rate of 35.3%, and earned 1 rebound.

Iowa has a mark of 12-3 so far this year. The Hawkeyes are committing 18.5 fouls every game and they hit 75.7% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 16.7 times per game (67th in college) and they lose possession via turnover 10.4 times per game. Iowa has totaled 1,197 pts this season (79.8 per game) and they snag 31.7 rebounds per game. When it comes to executing on offense, the Hawkeyes are connecting on 51.9% from the field, which ranks 13th in the nation.

The Hawkeyes on the defensive side of the court are 4th in college in PPG surrendered with 60.8. They have forced 15.1 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 42.6% from the field (138th in college). The Iowa defense gives up 29.9% on shots from beyond the arc (81 of 271) and their opposition makes 68.4% of their shots from the free throw line. They allow 10.1 dimes and 27.7 total boards per game, which is ranked 12th and 1st in the country.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Illinois

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