Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, 3/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini

Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026

Location: Toyota Center in Houston, TX

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Iowa (+6)

The Iowa Hawkeyes (24-12) are headed to Toyota Center on Saturday where they will play the Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8) in the Elite 8. Iowa opens this contest as 6-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 138.

The Iowa Hawkeyes took the court against Nebraska and notched a win by a score of 77-71 in their last game. When discussing fouls, the Hawkeyes ended up with 7 while Nebraska finished the game with 14 fouls. They also knocked down 13 of 38 shots from long range. Nebraska walked away from this one shooting 90.9% at the free throw line by making 10 of their 11 attempts. Additionally, Nebraska had 31 boards (10 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't have a block. Nebraska distributed 19 assists and had 3 steals for this game. When it comes to defending, Iowa allowed their opponent to shoot 41.4% from the floor on 24 out of 58 shooting. They also doled out 18 assists for this game as well as forcing the other team into 8 turnovers and having 6 steals. When discussing hauling in boards, they compiled 21 with 3 of them being of the offensive variety. From the free throw line, the Hawkeyes converted 10 of their 12 attempts for a rate of 83.3%. Iowa walked away from the game with a 51.9% field goal percentage (27 of 52) and buried 13 out of their 30 shots from distance.

Bennett Stirtz is one player who was a major factor for the contest. He finished shooting 46.7% from the field and also totaled 4 dimes. He played 40 minutes and snagged 2 boards. He ended up finishing with 20 points on 7 out of 15 shooting.

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Iowa comes into this contest with a win-loss mark of 24-12 for the campaign. They are turning it over 9.5 times per contest and as a team they commit 17.3 personal fouls per contest. As a unit, Iowa is pulling in 29.6 rebounds per game and has totaled 543 assists for the season, which has them ranked 62nd in the country in terms of passing. The Hawkeyes are hitting 35.6% on three-point attempts (291 of 818) and 76.7% from the free throw line. They are averaging 75.0 pts per contest (202nd in the nation) while hitting 49.0% from the field.

When they are on the defensive end, the Hawkeyes are forcing their opponents into 12.9 turnovers every game while drawing 17.5 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 159th in college in allowing assists to their opponents with 431 conceded for the campaign. The Hawkeyes defense is giving up a field goal percentage of 45.9% (818 of 1,783) and they surrender 28.6 rebounds per game as a unit. They give up 33.7% on 3-point attempts while they are 18th in Division 1 in PPG from their opponents (66.1).

When they last stepped on the court, the Illinois Fighting Illini got the victory with a final of 65-55 against Houston. In regard to cleaning up the glass, Illinois permitted Houston to get 25 in all (6 on the offensive glass). They finished 28.1% from behind the 3-point line by shooting 9 of 32 and ended up going 2 out of 2 at the free throw line (100.0%). The Fighting Illini allowed Houston to bury 22 out of their 64 tries from the floor which left them with a shooting percentage of 34.4% in the game. At the conclusion of this game, the Fighting Illini finished 22 out of 51 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 43.1%. In regard to shooting from downtown, Illinois buried 9 out of 23 tries (39.1%). They were able to bury 12 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 57.1%. Houston earned 21 fouls for this contest which took the Fighting Illini to the free throw line for a total of 21 tries. They gave up possession of the ball 8 times, while earning 2 steals in this game. The Fighting Illini were able to snag 28 defensive boards and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 37 for the matchup.

David Mirkovic was important for the Fighting Illini in the matchup. He buried 6 out of 13 in this matchup giving him a field goal percentage of 46.2%, and had 10 rebounds. He racked up 14 points in his 34 mins of playing time and had 2 dimes for the contest.

Illinois has a mark of 27-8 this year. The Fighting Illini are committing 13.3 personal fouls every game while shooting 77.8% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 14.7 times per contest (124th in the country) and they are giving up possession 8.8 times per contest. Illinois has 2,946 points for the campaign (84.2 per contest) and they average 41.1 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Fighting Illini are connecting on 46.4% from the floor, which has them ranked 102nd in the country.

The Fighting Illini are ranked 55th in college in points allowed per contest with 69.0. They are forcing 7.8 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 40.7% from the field (28th in the country). The Illinois defense gives up 30.9% on shots from distance (293 of 948) and their opponents are making 72.8% of their foul shots. They surrender 13.3 assists and 30.9 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 174th and 23rd in college hoops.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Iowa (+6)

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