Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots Prediction, 3/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs George Mason Patriots

Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Location: Eaglebank Arena in Fairfax, VA

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Liberty (+5)

The George Mason Patriots (23-9) welcome the Liberty Flames (25-7) at Eaglebank Arena on Tuesday in the 1st round of the NIT. Liberty opens this matchup as 5-point dogs. The betting total is set at 144.

The Liberty Flames faced Missouri State and went home with a loss by a final score of 77-69 in their last game. In reference to personal fouls, the Flames walked away with 18 and Missouri State racked up 13 personal fouls. They also made 8 out of their 16 tries from 3-point range. Missouri State walked away from this one shooting 59.1% at the free throw line by converting 13 of 22 tries. Additionally, Missouri State snagged 28 boards (4 offensive, 24 defensive), but didn't notch a rejection. Missouri State recorded 14 dimes and had 3 steals for this contest. When talking about defense, Liberty allowed the other team to go 56.0% from the floor on 28 of 50 shooting. They also recorded 15 assists in the matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 10 turnovers and getting 7 steals. In reference to getting rebounds, they collected a total of 26 with 9 of them being of the offensive variety. At the charity stripe, the Flames converted 6 of their 9 tries for a percentage of 66.7%. Liberty wrapped up the game with a 42.9% FG percentage (27 of 63) and made 9 of 31 shots from beyond the arc.

Zach Cleveland is one guy who came through in this game. He totaled 20 points on 9 out of 14 shooting. He was on the court for 35 minutes played and also pulled down 14 boards. He went 64.3% from the floor and also earned 4 dimes.

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Liberty heads into this game with a win-loss mark of 25-7 this year. They turn the ball over 8.8 times per game and as a unit they commit 14.1 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Liberty is grabbing 29.1 boards per contest and has racked up 551 assists for the season, which ranks 41st in the country in terms of passing the rock. The Flames are shooting 39.8% on three-point attempts (340 of 854) and 70.5% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 78.2 points per contest (119th in college hoops) while going 51.4% from the field.

On the defensive end of the court, the Flames have forced 11.2 turnovers every game and they draw 15.7 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 52nd in college hoops in giving up assists to their opponents with 384 surrendered this season. The Flames defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 45.2% (832 of 1,842) and they relinquish 33.3 boards per game as a team. They relinquish 37.7% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they rank 84th in the nation in PPG from their opponents (70.4).

When they last stepped on the court, the George Mason Patriots took a defeat with a final score of 63-57 against St. Bonaventure. When discussing how they attacked the glass, George Mason allowed St. Bonaventure to snag 28 overall (6 on the offensive glass). They finished 27.3% from beyond the perimeter via 3 of 11 and ended up going 18 out of 25 at the charity stripe (72.0%). The Patriots permitted St. Bonaventure to knock down 21 of 51 attempts from the floor which had them at 41.2% in the matchup. In all, the Patriots shot 24 for 57 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 42.1%. In the matter of shots from downtown, George Mason knocked down 6 out of their 24 attempts (25.0%). They were able to knock down 3 of the free throws for a rate of 50.0%. St. Bonaventure was called for 14 personal fouls in the matchup which took the Patriots to the free throw line for 6 attempts. They also turned it over 10 times, while recording 5 steals for the contest. The Patriots were able to collect 25 defensive boards and 10 offensive rebounds for a total of 35 for the game.

Jahari Long ended up being a factor for the Patriots for this contest. He totaled 17 points in his 37 minutes on the court and tallied 2 dimes for the matchup. He converted 6 out of 12 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and added 3 rebounds.

George Mason has a mark of 23-9 this year. The Patriots have committed 15.3 fouls every game while shooting 72.8% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 12.7 times per contest (271st in the nation) and they are losing possession via turnover 10.6 times per game. George Mason has totaled 2,347 points on the season (73.3 per contest) and they snag 34.8 rebounds per contest. When it comes to executing on offense, the Patriots are shooting 47.5% from the field, which ranks 52nd in college.

The Patriots on defense are ranked 35th in the country in points given up per game with 67.5. They are forcing 10.3 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 42.5% from the floor (86th in college hoops). The George Mason defense allows 32.6% on three-point shots (251 of 771) and opponents are connecting on 70.4% of their shots from the free throw line. They concede 12.7 assists and 31.0 rebounds on a nightly basis, which is 117th and 23rd in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Liberty (+5)

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