Liberty Flames vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction, 3/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs Nevada Wolf Pack

Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026

Location: Lawlor Events Center in Reno, NV

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Nevada (-8)

Lawlor Events Center is where the Nevada Wolf Pack (22-12) will attempt to beat the Liberty Flames (25-7) on Saturday in the round 2 of the NIT. Liberty opens this matchup as 8-point underdogs. The over/under comes in at 147.5.

The Liberty Flames faced off with George Mason and went home with a win by a final score of 77-71 in their last contest. Concerning fouls, the Flames ended up with 17 while George Mason totaled 16 fouls. They also knocked down 5 of 17 tries from distance. George Mason finished the game at 83.3% at the free throw line by knocking down 20 of their 24 tries. On top of that, George Mason grabbed 33 boards (13 offensive, 20 defensive), but wrapped up the game with no rejections. George Mason distributed 7 assists and had 5 steals for the matchup. In relation to defense, Liberty allowed their opponent to shoot 39.0% from the floor on 23 out of 59 shooting. They also doled out 16 assists in the matchup as well as creating 7 turnovers and earning 7 steals. With regard to rebounding, they earned a total of 29 with 6 of them being of the offensive variety. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Flames made 17 of 20 attempts for a rate of 85.0%. Liberty finished the game with a 49.1% field goal percentage (27 out of 55) and buried 6 of their 17 3-pointers.

Josh Smith is one player who played a role for the game. He ended up walking away with 23 points on 7 of 9 shooting. He saw the court for 32 minutes and also collected 9 boards. He ended up going 77.8% from the field and also dished out 1 assist.

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Liberty comes into this one with a mark of 25-7 so far this year. They are giving up possession 8.8 times per game and as a unit they are committing 14.1 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Liberty is collecting 29.1 boards per game and has racked up 551 assists on the campaign, which has them ranked 41st in Division 1 in terms of passing the ball. The Flames are hitting 39.8% from downtown (340 of 854) and 70.5% from the free throw line. They have an average of 78.2 pts per game (119th in the country) on 51.4% from the field.

On defense, the Flames are able to force 11.2 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 15.7 fouls. They give up 37.7% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 84th in the country in PPG allowed (70.4). The Flames defensively are giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 45.2% (832 of 1,842) and they surrender 33.3 rebounds per game as a team. They are ranked 52nd in the nation in allowing assists to the opposition with 384 relinquished on the year.

When they last stepped on the court, the Nevada Wolf Pack got the victory with a final of 89-75 when they played Murray State. Regarding rebounds, Nevada allowed Murray State to pull down 29 in total (6 on the offensive glass). They finished 40.7% from distance by shooting 11 out of 27 and finished the contest at 8 of 13 at the free throw line (61.5%). The Wolf Pack permitted Murray State to bury 28 of 59 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 47.5% in the game. When the final whistle was blown, the Wolf Pack went 37 for 73 from the field which had them shooting 50.7%. In reference to 3-point attempts, Nevada converted 7 of their 21 tries (33.3%). They were able to knock down 8 of those for a percentage of 88.9%. Murray State was called for 10 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Wolf Pack to the charity stripe for a total of 9 shots. They turned the ball over 5 times, while getting 9 steals in the matchup. The Wolf Pack pulled down 27 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive rebounds totaling 37 in the matchup.

Vaughn Weems was important for the Wolf Pack in the matchup. He converted 9 of 13 for this contest for a rate of 69.2%, and had 5 rebounds. He earned 23 points in his 34 minutes on the hardwood and had 2 dimes in the matchup.

Nevada has a record of 22-12 for the season. The Wolf Pack are committing 18.2 fouls per game and they shoot 75.2% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 14.2 times per contest (156th in Division 1) and they are losing possession via turnover 10.1 times per contest. Nevada has scored 2,582 points on the season (75.9 per game) and they pull in 36.0 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the ball, the Wolf Pack are connecting on 43.9% from the floor, which is 258th in college.

The Wolf Pack on the defensive side of the court are 116th in the nation in points per game surrendered with 71.6. They are forcing 11.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 43.8% from the floor (154th in the country). The Nevada defense gives up 34.1% on 3-pointers (269 of 790) and their opponents are converting on 71.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. They give up 13.3 dimes and 33.1 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 178th and 97th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Nevada (-8)

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