Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, 2/11/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies

Date: Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Location: Pan American Center in Las Cruces, NM

TV: ESPN+

The Liberty Flames (20-3) are hitting the road to Pan American Center on Wednesday where they will attempt to beat the New Mexico State Aggies (11-12).

The Liberty Flames faced off with Missouri State and notched a win by a score of 79-76 in their last game. Liberty wrapped up the game with a 55.1% field goal percentage (27 of 49) and knocked down 7 of their 20 shots from 3-point land. From the charity stripe, the Flames buried 18 of 28 tries for a percentage of 64.3%. Regarding grabbing rebounds, they compiled 25 with 3 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 22 dimes for the matchup in addition to forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and earning 6 steals. In terms of the defense, Liberty allowed the other team to shoot 48.2% from the field on 27 of 56 shooting. Missouri State recorded 14 dimes and had 5 steals for the game. On top of that, Missouri State had 31 boards (10 offensive, 21 defensive), but didn't have a block. Missouri State shot 53.8% at the charity stripe by knocking down 14 of their 26 attempts. They converted 8 of 17 shots from beyond the arc. In relation to fouls, the Flames ended up with 17 and Missouri State recorded 19 fouls.

Brett Decker Jr. is one guy who was a factor in the game. He went 66.7% from the field and distributed 2 assists. He played for 37 mins played and also grabbed 2 rebounds. He recorded 20 points on 6 out of 9 shooting.

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Liberty heads into this one with a win-loss mark of 20-3 on the campaign. They currently have an average of 79.3 pts per game (114th in college hoops) while hitting 52.6% from the floor. The Flames are shooting 40.8% on shots from distance (242 of 593) and 70.2% from the charity stripe. As a team, Liberty is pulling in 30.0 boards per game and has tallied 408 dimes for the campaign, which ranks 45th in the country in terms of passing the rock. They turn the ball over 8.7 times per contest and as a team they are committing 13.9 personal fouls on a nightly basis.

On the defensive end, the Flames are forcing 11.6 turnovers per contest and they draw 15.8 fouls. They are conceding 35.9% on shots from beyond the perimeter while they are 34th in college in points per game allowed (67.6). The Flames are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 43.4% (571 of 1,316) and they surrender 32.8 rebounds per game as a team. They rank 44th in college hoops in giving up assists to their opponents with 272 surrendered for the year.

The last time they took the hardwood, the New Mexico State Aggies went home defeated by a final of 91-88 when they faced UTEP. The Aggies pulled down 27 defensive boards and 11 offensive rebounds for a total of 38 in this matchup. They gave up possession of the ball 10 times, while getting 8 steals in the game. UTEP was called for 18 fouls in this contest which got the Aggies to the free throw line for 23 attempts. They were able to convert 14 of those for a clip of 60.9%. In the matter of 3-point shots, New Mexico State made 10 of their 24 attempts (41.7%). When all was said and done, the Aggies walked away from this one shooting 32 for 72 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 44.4%. The Aggies allowed UTEP to knock down 27 of 69 attempts from the floor which left them shooting 39.1% for the matchup. They shot 34.4% from three-point range by shooting 11 out of 32 and ended up shooting 26 of 38 from the free throw line (68.4%). Concerning how they rebounded, New Mexico State allowed UTEP to grab 46 in all (16 offensive).

Jemel Jones was important for the Aggies for the contest. He converted 9 out of 18 in the game giving him a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and added 6 rebounds. He earned 26 points in his 35 minutes on the court and had 4 assists in the game.

New Mexico State has a record of 11-12 on the season. On the offensive side of the court, the Aggies are hitting on 43.6% from the field, which ranks them 275th in college. New Mexico State has accumulated 1,742 pts so far this season (75.7 per game) and they average 37.4 rebounds per game. They are dishing out assists 13.5 times per game (225th in college) and they are losing possession via turnover 10.9 times per game. The Aggies are committing 20.2 fouls per game and they shoot 72.0% from the charity stripe.

The Aggies on defense are ranked 101st in college in points given up per game with 70.9. They are forcing 11.9 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 40.7% from the floor (37th in the country). The New Mexico State defense concedes 30.6% on 3-point shots (166 of 543) and their opposition makes 73.5% of their foul shots. They relinquish 11.2 assists and 34.7 boards per contest, which has them ranked 33rd and 192nd in college.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New Mexico State

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