Liberty Flames vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, 1/21/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Location: E.A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green, KY

TV: ESPN+

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (11-7) will take on the Liberty Flames (15-3) at E.A. Diddle Arena on Wednesday.

The Liberty Flames played UTEP and took home the win by a score of 80-69 in their last game. Liberty ended the contest having earned a 59.3% field goal percentage (32 out of 54) and knocked down 7 out of their 20 shots from distance. From the free throw line, the Flames made 9 of 11 tries for a percentage of 81.8%. In the matter of hauling in rebounds, they collected 20 with 4 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 13 assists in this game while forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and having 7 steals. Concerning the defense, Liberty let their opponent shoot 54.9% from the field on 28 out of 51 shooting. UTEP recorded 15 assists and had 4 steals for this contest. Additionally, UTEP pulled down 19 rebounds (1 offensive, 18 defensive), but didn't notch a block. UTEP shot 50.0% when shooting free throws by making 2 of 4 shots. They made 11 of their 23 shots from three-point range. In regard to personal fouls, the Flames ended up walking away with 7 and UTEP had 10 personal fouls.

Brett Decker Jr. is a player who was important in this matchup. He went 50.0% from the field and dished out 1 assist. He was on the court for 34 minutes and also snagged 3 rebounds. He totaled 20 points on 8 out of 16 shooting.

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Liberty will enter this matchup with a win-loss record of 15-3 this season. They currently have an average of 80.3 pts per contest (111th in the nation) while connecting on 52.6% from the field. The Flames are connecting on 39.9% on shots from 3-point land (186 of 466) and 69.8% from the free throw line. As a team, Liberty is pulling down 31.0 boards per contest and has totaled 316 assists this season, which is 50th in Division 1 in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession via turnover 8.7 times per contest and as a group they are committing 13.7 fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Flames are forcing their opponents into 11.5 turnovers per contest and they draw 15.7 fouls. They are ranked 64th in D-1 in giving up assists with 215 surrendered this season. The Flames are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 42.8% (452 of 1,057) and they concede 33.5 boards per game as a team. They are surrendering 35.1% on shots from distance and they are 52nd in college in PPG allowed (68.0).

In their last game, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers took a defeat with a final score of 81-65 when they faced Kennesaw State. When it comes to how they attacked the glass, Western Kentucky permitted Kennesaw State to snag 43 in total (9 on the offensive side). They finished 36.7% from behind the 3-point line by going 11 out of 30 and finished the game at 22 out of 29 from the charity stripe (75.9%). The Hilltoppers allowed Kennesaw State to knock down 24 out of their 59 tries from the field which left them shooting 40.7% in the matchup. When all was said and done, the Hilltoppers finished shooting 20 out of 68 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 29.4%. With respect to shots from distance, Western Kentucky made 10 of 33 tries (30.3%). They were able to knock down 15 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 65.2%. Kennesaw State committed 17 personal fouls for this contest which took the Hilltoppers to the charity stripe for 23 attempts. They also coughed up the ball 7 times, while recording 4 steals for the contest. The Hilltoppers were able to pull down 26 defensive boards and 9 offensive boards for a total of 35 in this matchup.

Ryan Myers pitched in for the Hilltoppers for the game. He knocked down 5 of 17 for this game for a field goal rate of 29.4%, and accumulated 1 rebound. He scored 16 points in his 27 minutes on the hardwood and had 3 dimes in the game.

Western Kentucky has a record of 11-7 on the year. When it comes to offense, the Hilltoppers are connecting on 40.7% from the floor, which is ranked 344th in the country. Western Kentucky has 1,448 points this season (80.4 per game) and they snag 41.9 rebounds per game. They are getting an assist 13.1 times per game (265th in the nation) and they are turning it over 10.3 times per game. The Hilltoppers are committing 19.6 fouls every game and they hit 73.7% from the charity stripe.

The Western Kentucky defense allows 33.7% on shots from beyond the arc (163 of 483) and opponents are knocking down 70.7% of their foul shots. They surrender 14.8 dimes and 39.0 total rebounds per game, which is ranked 282nd and 347th in the country. The Hilltoppers are ranked 244th in the country in PPG allowed with 75.8. They are forcing their opponents into 13.2 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 41.5% from the floor (69th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Western Kentucky

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