North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction, 1/24/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers

Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026

Location: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, VA

TV: ESPN+

The North Carolina Tar Heels (15-4) are en route to John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday where they will take on the Virginia Cavaliers (16-2).

The North Carolina Tar Heels stepped onto the hardwood against Notre Dame and went home with a win by a final score of 91-69 in their last contest. North Carolina ended the game with a 50.8% field goal percentage (31 of 61) and made 13 of their 34 three-point shots. At the charity stripe, the Tar Heels made 16 of their 23 tries for a rate of 69.6%. Regarding hauling in rebounds, they compiled a total of 42 with 8 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 18 dimes for the matchup as well as forcing 5 turnovers and earning 3 steals. In the matter of the defense, North Carolina allowed 36.0% from the field on 27 out of 75 shooting. Notre Dame doled out 13 dimes and had 5 steals for the contest. On top of that, Notre Dame collected 38 boards (17 offensive, 21 defensive), but wasn't able to record a block. Notre Dame went 53.8% at the free throw line by burying 7 of their 13 shots. They also made 8 out of their 25 tries from long range. When talking about personal fouls, the Tar Heels ended up walking away with 17 and Notre Dame finished the game with 16 personal fouls.

Caleb Wilson is someone who was a major factor in this matchup. He finished shooting 72.7% from the field and distributed 5 dimes. He played 30 mins played and also collected 7 boards. He totaled 22 points on 8 of 11 shooting.

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North Carolina heads into this game with a win-loss record of 15-4 for the season. They are turning it over 10.2 times per contest and as a unit they commit 14.9 personal fouls every game. As a unit, North Carolina is grabbing 40.7 boards per game and has totaled 324 assists so far this season, which has them ranked 58th in college hoops in terms of passing. The Tar Heels are connecting on 34.1% on shots from 3-point land (166 of 487) and 67.5% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 82.4 pts per contest (75th in D-1) on 48.2% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Tar Heels have forced 9.5 turnovers every game while drawing 19.2 fouls. They are surrendering 33.8% on 3-point shots and they are 76th in college hoops in PPG from their opponents (69.5). The Tar Heels defensively are allowing a FG percentage of 39.6% (481 of 1,215) and they concede 33.1 boards per contest as a team. They are ranked 106th in college in giving up assists to the opposition with 243 relinquished this year.

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Virginia Cavaliers went home victorious with a score of 72-68 against SMU. When it comes to rebounding, Virginia permitted SMU to grab 28 overall (11 on the offensive side). They shot 38.5% from 3-point land by shooting 5 out of 13 and ended up going 11 of 14 from the free throw line (78.6%). The Cavaliers permitted SMU to bury 26 out of 61 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 42.6% in this contest. When the final whistle was blown, the Cavaliers walked away from this one shooting 25 out of 60 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 41.7%. Regarding three-point shots, Virginia made 12 out of 31 tries (38.7%). They were able to convert 10 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 83.3%. SMU was called for 14 fouls for this game which got the Cavaliers to the free throw line for 12 tries. They coughed up the ball 11 times, while getting 5 steals for this game. The Cavaliers were able to collect 22 defensive boards and 14 offensive rebounds totaling 36 in the game.

Malik Thomas ended up being a major contributor for the Cavaliers for the game. He converted 7 of 14 for this contest for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and accumulated 11 rebounds. He had 23 points in his 33 mins on the hardwood and added 1 assist for the matchup.

Virginia has a mark of 16-2 this season. As an offensive team, the Cavaliers are hitting on 47.4% from the floor, which is 79th in the nation. Virginia has earned 1,512 pts so far this season (84.0 per game) and they grab 41.9 boards per game. They are earning an assist 17.4 times per game (37th in the country) and they are turning it over 10.8 times per game. The Cavaliers have committed 18.9 personal fouls every game while shooting 70.0% from the free throw line.

The Virginia defense gives up 28.9% on 3-pointers (115 of 398) and opponents are making 73.2% of their free throw attempts. They have allowed 10.9 dimes and 32.9 rebounds every game, which is 27th and 82nd in the country. The Cavaliers on the defensive end are ranked 38th in the nation in points allowed per contest with 67.1. They are forcing 11.2 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 38.1% from the field (7th in the nation).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Virginia

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