San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: The Pit in Albuquerque, NM

TV: ESPN+

The San Diego State Aztecs (19-8) are headed to The Pit on Saturday where they will attempt to beat the New Mexico Lobos (21-7).

The San Diego State Aztecs played Utah State and took home the win by a score of 89-72 in their last contest. When talking about personal fouls, the Aztecs ended up with 21 while Utah State finished the game with 25 personal fouls. They also made 8 of their 27 attempts from distance. Utah State finished the game shooting 66.7% at the free throw line by making 16 of their 24 shots. Additionally, Utah State snagged 27 rebounds (10 offensive, 17 defensive), but couldn't earn a rejection. Utah State recorded 11 dimes and had 6 steals in this matchup. With respect to the defense, San Diego State let their opponent shoot 40.4% from the floor on 23 out of 57 shooting. They also distributed 18 dimes for the game while forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and getting 3 steals. In the matter of getting rebounds, they compiled 36 with 12 of them being of the offensive sort. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Aztecs converted 22 of 33 attempts for a percentage of 66.7%. San Diego State finished the contest with a 54.5% FG percentage (30 out of 55) and knocked down 7 of their 16 shots from downtown.

Reese Dixon-Waters is someone who was a factor in this game. He ended up walking away with 20 points on 6 of 13 shooting. He was on the court for 33 mins and collected 4 boards. He walked away from this one shooting 46.2% from the floor but didn't record a dime.

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San Diego State comes into this contest with a win-loss mark of 19-8 for the campaign. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.3 times per game and as a squad they commit 18.9 fouls per game. As a unit, San Diego State is pulling down 35.7 rebounds per game and is sitting with 417 dimes for the year, which is 136th in college in terms of passing. The Aztecs are hitting 35.8% on 3-pointers (185 of 517) and 75.3% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 79.3 points per contest (105th in the country) while connecting on 47.6% from the floor.

Defensively, the Aztecs have forced 15.1 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 17.7 personal fouls. They are 110th in Division 1 in giving up assists to the opposition with 362 relinquished on the year. The Aztecs defense is allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 39.6% (609 of 1,538) and they concede 33.4 rebounds per game as a unit. They are surrendering 32.6% from 3-point land and they rank 79th in the country in PPG from their opponents (70.1).

In their last game, the New Mexico Lobos took a loss by a score of 67-60 when they faced Nevada. In the matter of how they cleaned up the glass, New Mexico permitted Nevada to collect 41 in all (10 on the offensive side). They finished 29.4% from distance by going 5 of 17 and walked away from this one shooting 16 out of 22 at the free throw line (72.7%). The Lobos allowed Nevada to make 23 of their 58 tries from the floor which had them shooting 39.7% in the matchup. At the conclusion of this game, the Lobos went 21 out of 55 from the floor which had them shooting 38.2%. In reference to 3-pointers, New Mexico converted 6 of 21 tries (28.6%). They were able to convert 12 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 57.1%. Nevada committed 19 personal fouls in this game which took the Lobos to the free throw line for 21 tries. They also coughed up the ball 12 times, while getting 8 steals for the matchup. The Lobos were able to snag 25 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds totaling 31 for this game.

Jake Hall pitched in for the Lobos in the game. He earned 17 points in his 35 minutes on the hardwood and added 2 dimes in the matchup. He made 6 of 15 for this game for a field goal rate of 40.0%, and had 1 rebound.

New Mexico has a win-loss mark of 21-7 this season. On the offensive side of the ball, the Lobos are connecting on 46.2% from the field, which is ranked 131st in college hoops. New Mexico has scored 2,258 pts this season (80.6 per game) and they collect 36.2 rebounds per game. They are earning an assist 14.7 times per contest (127th in the country) and they cough up possession 10.9 times per game. The Lobos are committing 17.3 fouls every game and they connect on 74.0% from the free throw line.

The New Mexico defense allows 29.3% on shots from 3-point land (225 of 769) and their opponents are making 73.6% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have surrendered 12.3 dimes and 34.5 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 87th and 195th in college hoops. The Lobos on the defensive end are ranked 65th in the nation in PPG surrendered with 69.4. They are forcing their opponents into 13.8 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 41.1% from the field (41st in college hoops).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take San Diego State

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