UC Davis Aggies vs Cal Poly Mustangs Prediction, 1/10/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UC Davis Aggies vs Cal Poly Mustangs

Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026

Location: Mott Athletics Center in San Luis Obispo, CA

TV: ESPN+

The Cal Poly Mustangs (6-10) welcome the UC Davis Aggies (8-6) at Mott Athletics Center on Saturday.

The UC Davis Aggies faced CSU Bakersfield and went home with a loss by a final score of 81-79 in their last contest. UC Davis finished the contest having earned a 41.2% field goal percentage (21 of 51) and buried 10 of their 25 three-point shots. At the free throw line, the Aggies converted 27 of 36 tries for a rate of 75.0%. When talking about hauling in boards, they collected a total of 29 with 8 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 17 assists in the matchup while forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and earning 5 steals. In relation to defense, UC Davis allowed their opponent to shoot 41.9% from the floor on 26 of 62 shooting. CSU Bakersfield doled out 13 dimes and had 9 steals in the matchup. Furthermore, CSU Bakersfield had 31 boards (11 offensive, 20 defensive), but couldn't earn a rejection. CSU Bakersfield shot 84.6% at the free throw line by knocking down 22 of 26 shots. They also converted 7 out of their 21 tries from beyond the arc. Concerning fouls, the Aggies ended up with 20 while CSU Bakersfield accounted for 26 fouls.

Isaiah Chappell is one guy who was a contributor in this game. He accounted for 15 points on 4 of 9 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 29 mins and also snagged 4 rebounds. He ended up going 44.4% from the field but wasn't able to get an assist.

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UC Davis comes into this game with a win-loss mark of 8-6 on the campaign. They lose possession by turning the ball over 13.3 times per contest and as a group they are committing 18.9 fouls every game. As a unit, UC Davis is snagging 33.1 boards per game and has totaled 233 assists for the year, which is 151st in the country in terms of passing the rock. The Aggies are shooting 35.4% on shots beyond the perimeter (120 of 339) and 75.2% from the free throw line. They have an average of 80.4 points per contest (118th in the nation) while connecting on 47.4% from the field.

Defensively, the Aggies are forcing 15.4 turnovers per game while drawing 20.2 fouls. They are 132nd in college hoops in allowing assists to their opponents with 194 surrendered this year. The Aggies defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 44.1% (353 of 800) and they surrender 34.3 rebounds per game as a team. They relinquish 34.9% from 3-point land and they are ranked 232nd in college in PPG from their opponents (75.2).

In their last game, the Cal Poly Mustangs took a loss by a final score of 74-66 when they played Long Beach State. The Mustangs were able to pull down 26 defensive boards and 7 offensive rebounds totaling 33 in this game. They coughed it up 11 times, while getting 5 steals for the matchup. Long Beach State was called for 21 personal fouls for this contest which took the Mustangs to the charity stripe for a total of 25 attempts. They were able to bury 18 of those for a clip of 72.0%. With regard to three-point attempts, Cal Poly knocked down 10 of 30 attempts (33.3%). In all, the Mustangs walked away from this one shooting 19 out of 56 from the floor which had them sitting at 33.9%. The Mustangs permitted Long Beach State to bury 29 out of their 58 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 50.0% in this contest. They finished the game shooting 23.5% from three-point range via 4 of 17 and finished the game at 12 of 17 from the free throw line (70.6%). Regarding cleaning the glass, Cal Poly allowed Long Beach State to pull down 30 in all (6 offensive).

Hamad Mousa ended up being a major contributor for the Mustangs in the matchup. He knocked down 5 out of 14 in the matchup for a rate of 35.7%, and totaled 8 rebounds. He recorded 19 points in his 37 minutes on the court and added 2 dimes for the matchup.

Cal Poly has a mark of 6-10 this season. The Mustangs are committing 20.8 fouls per game and they hit 75.1% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 12.8 times per game (294th in D-1) and they are giving up possession 16.3 times per contest. Cal Poly has totaled 1,291 points on the season (80.7 per game) and they collect 39.5 rebounds per game. When it comes to offense, the Mustangs are connecting on 42.1% from the floor, which ranks them 315th in the country.

The Cal Poly defense concedes 32.9% on shots from beyond the arc (153 of 465) and their opponents are knocking down 72.9% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have surrendered 15.9 dimes and 37.4 boards every game, which has them ranked 316th and 307th in those categories. The Mustangs on the defensive side of the court are 351st in the country in points per game surrendered with 85.1. They are forcing 12.4 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 45.0% from the floor (268th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take UC Davis

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