Alex De Minaur vs Aljaz Bedene ATP Picks and Tips - 6/18/2019
Alex De Minaur vs Aljaz Bedene
4 am EST, 18th June 2019
ATP London, England
Aljaz Bedene could be considered as somewhat of a local here. Even though he's a Slovenian, his residence is in London, so I guess he should be quite familiar with these courts in Queen's club. Actually, he played under British flag for a couple of years but was not eligible to play for their Davis Cup team. Right now, he's playing under Slovenian flag again, while his familiarity with UK tennis, city of London and these courts didn't really help him much in the past. He has 2-3 all-time record at this event, with his other grass court experience not being much fruitful either. He is 10-15 with a 40% win rate being the worst when comparing all surfaces. He played last week in Hertogenbosch and actually stood his ground pretty well vs Richard Gasquet, who went on and played the semifinals later. Bedene was set and a break up in that one but failed to sustain the lead. In London, he got through the qualifiers, beating Jurgen Zopp and Robert Carballes Baena on his way to the main draw. But I don't think neither of those can be treated as a quality grass court win.
Alex De Minaur played at the same event last week and shared a similar faith with his next opponent. Like Bedene, he was eliminated from the tournament after being a set up in his last match. Although, we have to mention that the stage of the elimination was not the same, with De Minaur losing to fellow countryman Thompson in the quarterfinals.
Few things were already said about Alex and his disappointing summer. He struggled on the clay courts which are by far his least favorite. That is pretty interesting, considering that he spent a big part of his youth in Spain, which is known for producing some of the best clay-courters in the world. Anyway, he was expected to regain some of his old form with this transition to grass courts. That loss to Thompson as a favorite was quite unexpected, so the jury is still out on whether his form indeed improved, or not.
These two guys have never met before in an official match, but predicting how they'll match-up on grass should not be a challenge. Bedene is a player that prefers slower clay courts over other surfaces. He can rack up some aces from time to time, but that's about the only weapon he has for these conditions. Plays his groundstrokes with a lot of topspin on both wings, which is not something that works well in these type of playing conditions. He's too passive and at times looks uncomfortable when trying to connect all the dots on this surface.
On the other side, we have someone completely different in De Minaur. His serve might not be as big of a weapon, but pretty much everything else suits this surface really well. His agility is elite and allows him to defend on a high level and retrieve the majority of the balls back in play. He does it with a proper grass court shot selection, keeping everything flat and low over the net, resulting in a low bounce on the other side and uncomfortable position for his opponent. Someone like Bedene should really struggle to get solid contact on those balls because he will not have time to get there and take a proper swing with all the wasted motion he has going on.
Betting odds & prediction
Aussie being favored in this one is a no surprise whatsoever. I even think that linemakers shouldn't be as shy with opening that number at only -3. I had it at least half a point higher with Bedene clearly outmatched in these playing conditions. Anything else then an easy win for Alex would be a big surprise in my opinion.
Tony's Pick: Alex De Minaur -3 (-102)
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