Alexander Zverev vs Aljaz Bedene US Open Picks 8/31/2019
Alexander Zverev vs Aljaz Bedene
10 am EST, 31st August 2019
New York, NY (USA)
After making things complicated in the first round, Zverev did it again in his second match. First, let's remember what happened on Tuesday when he played Radu Albot. He won first two sets comfortably, 6-1, 6-3. When everybody thought that he is in cruise control and that his opponent can't do anything to change that, Zverev's level dropped severely and he lost the next two sets. In the decider, he simply woke up as nothing happened and won it convincingly.
In the 2nd round, he once again played 5 sets, this time against Tiafoe. He was in the lead the entire time, but the way he's allowing opponents back into the match is frustrating. Issues with the second serve are still here. He had 11 double faults vs Tiafoe and won under 50 % of points after his second serve. But, in some parts of the match, he was hitting the ball very cleanly, which allowed him to score 63 winners. He did not pay the price for switching on and off so far, but if that keeps repeating itself, he will have a lot of problems when facing better opposition.
Aljaz Bedene might not be the one who'll punish him, but I reckon he could keep up with the German, the way the other two opponents did. Bedene also had an exhausting experience in the second round. He was 2 sets down against Benoit Paire and then staged a miraculous comeback. They were on the court for more than 4 hours.
Bedene had a weird build-up for this year's US Open. He took a vacation, after losing in the quarterfinals of Umag. And then instead of participating in American Hardcourt swing, he appeared in a single challenger (Portoroz, Slovenia). As I said, it is a pretty unusual decision, but a one that obviously worked for him. He arrived in Flushing Meadows well rested and in solid form.
Zverev is dominating the tie with all 3 wins so far. The last time they met was in Melbourne earlier this year when Sascha won in straight sets. But I'm not sure if I'd give those scores too much relevance. It is a fact that Zverev is struggling lately, while in time of those matches, he was still performing as a legit top 10 player, in my opinion.
These two guys have a pretty similar style of play. They are both very solid from behind the baseline. Zverev can hit with more power, but Bedene is a very agile and covers the court beautifully, side-to-side. He brings a ton of balls back in play and forces his opponent into risking more. That is what happened in his match vs Paire, where the French player committed 99 unforced errors! Yes, ninety-nine.
Betting odds & prediction
Considering the inconsistent play by Alexander, he might struggle vs a gritty opponent like Bedene. Especially at the moment, when he is pretty much without an idea on how to construct the point properly. He is trying to overpower opponents early in the exchange, hoping he draws and error. But once that doesn't happen, he will take too much risk, which was not paying off lately.
It seems that the market doesn't see the problem here, because the money came in on the favorite. I think that -5.5 is too high for a player that showed no consistency lately and allowed the lead to slip out of his hands multiple times in recent matches.
Pick: over 36 games (-118)
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