Ivo Karlovic vs Thomas Fabbiano Tennis Betting Tips - 7/3/2019
Ivo Karlovic vs Thomas Fabbiano
5:30 am EST, 3rd July 2019
After achieving one of his best results last week, when he played in the semifinals of Eastbourne, Thomas Fabbiano got his first Top 10 win in the first round of Wimbledon. This late bloomer from Italy is obviously playing his best tennis at 30 years of age. He's ranked barely inside the top 100 at the moment but is playing more like a top 25 player recently. He enjoys the grass courts, which was obvious last week, when he eliminated a couple of very good players in James Ward, Laslo Djere and Gilles Simon, before losing to Sam Querrey in straight sets. But none of those can compare with his performance on Monday when he eliminated Stefanos Tsitsipas as a 7 to 1 underdog. And he was pretty much ahead all the time and looked nothing like a 7 to 1 underdog. His ball striking from the baseline was amazing. 45/40 (winners/UE) stats might not show it right away, but when you take into consideration how good Tsitsipas is in those baseline exchanges, and how much you need to work in those rallies to put him away, 45/40 is really really good. In the 4th set, he served in the tie-break for the match at result 8-7. Failed to seal the deal and lost the entire set instead. Lower ranked players on the brink of their biggest win can often choke like that. And when they do, their game usually falls apart immediately after. But that is not what happened to Fabbiano. He stayed composed and broke Tsitsipas twice in the deciding set for the win.
He is playing against Ivo Karlovic in the second round, who cruised through his first round match against qualifier Andrea Arnaboldi. Served up 21 aces, winning 83% of all points behind his serve and faced zero break points. The usual stats for big Croatian on the grass. Even though he's always a very tough matchup on the grass courts, it was obvious lately, that he is losing a step in his 25th season as a pro. I'm saying that because he lost to Viktor Troicki at Surbiton challenger, Evgeny Donskoy in Nottingham and James Ward in the final qualifying round of Queen's Club.
It's still not going to be easy for Fabbiano, especially because he has to make a completely different gameplan vs this type of server. But luckily for him, the surface at this years Wimbledon seems to be on the slower side. We've seen only 17 total tie-breaks in 32 matches on the first day. Aces are more difficult to come by and that will help him a lot here. If he manages to deny Ivo big share of free points that he gets with his serve usually and force him into some longer exchanges, his chances for the win will increase dramatically. Also, the low bounce doesn't bother him much, because he's one of the shortest guys on the tour and doesn't need to bend his knees and make adjustments with his swing as much as some taller guys on this surface
Related: Get ATP Tips for today's matches
Betting odds & prediction
Karlovic opened as a -133 favorite which was a mistake that market corrected quickly. Now Fabbiano is favored in approximately that same range. Even on grass, there is more to the tennis game, then just serving bombs all day. People tend to forget that. Especially in this situation, where I believe Fabbiano will get his racket on Ivo's serve more often because of the slower surface and get it where he wants it - into baseline rallies.
Guy's Pick: Thomas Fabbiano -133
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