Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer Expert ATP Picks Against the Spread - 7/14/2019
Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer
8 am EST, 14th July 2019
Semifinal matches were as exciting as anticipated. Roberto Bautista Agut proved to be a troublesome opponent for Novak Djokovic one more time, forcing the No.1 player in the world to dig deep to get into his 7th Wimbledon finals. Serbian was up to the task, boosting the level of his game in critical moments of the match, after losing the 2nd set to the gritty Spaniard. To tell you the truth, Bautista hasn't done much wrong in this contest. He was executing his usual game on a high level during the majority of the match. Rock-solid from the back of the court and consistent with the depth of his shots that were a significant part of his defense. Nole's ability to stay composed and get back to things that won him the first set was the deciding factor.
Djokovic will be playing Roger Federer for the third time in Wimbledon finals, after beating him twice already in years 2014 and 2015. Legendary Swiss will try to overcome his two greatest rivals back to back, after surpassing Rafael Nadal in the previous round. Spaniard was considered a favorite for the first time vs Federer on grass, which made the match even more intriguing. But the market had this one all wrong. Bettors were blinded by Nadal's performance earlier in the tournament and did not realize the matchup problems that Rafa will face. He was unable to push Federer further back with his aggressive topspin like he did a couple of weeks earlier in Paris. It allowed Roger to play closer to the baseline, take away the time from his opponent, and put an enormous amount of pressure on Spaniard's defense. I should not forget to mention his serve that worked wonders. 14 aces with only 1 double fault. 70% of all the points won behind his serve and not being broken in sets 1, 3, and 4.
But reaching that level of serving efficiency against Novak is nearly impossible. Not being able to produce free points from his serve against a returning machine like Djokovic will create a bunch of other problems for the Fed. He'll have to better the Serb in the baseline rallies, which is another challenging task when we acknowledge the speed of the surface and defensive ability of Nole. On top of that, Joker can play the angles with his inside-in forehand and it to move his opponent side to side. Federer is not as comfortable with hitting the ball out wide on the run, as he is from the middle. Nadal didn't do enough of that, which might have cost him the match. Djokovic is not repeating that mistake.
Betting odds & prediction
This will be their 48th encounter so far, with Djokovic having the upper hand 25-22. There are no big secrets between these two. They are familiar with each other's game, meaning whoever executes his gameplan on a higher level will probably win the match. Novak opened as a -180 favorite, and it seems that linemakers nailed that one, because it didn't move much towards either side since the opening. Federer at +160 is very appealing to the casual bettors that are hammering it, thinking it's a steal after observing the semifinal performance. But the sharp money on the other side is keeping it steady. They are well aware of all the matchup issues that Federer is going to encounter on Sunday. Spread is currently -3, while the total is sitting at 40.5 games. As mentioned in earlier articles, grass courts in Wimbledon are slower this year and are not allowing as many easy holds as in previous years. Set are not going the distance as often, resulting in totals landing under.
Josh's Pick: Novak Djokovic -189
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