Taylor Fritz vs Sam Querrey ATP Picks and Tips - 6/29/2019
Taylor Fritz vs Sam Querrey
8 am EST, 29th June 2019
ATP Eastbourne, England
Taylor Fritz got himself into the second ATP finals of his career, after his first being in Memphis, 3 years ago. He fell short back then, but the way he's been playing this week, his chances to win his first title are not bad at all. He came into this tournament with a pretty horrible grass courts record, winning only 4 out of 16 matches on the main tour. But, with a favorable draw at the beginning of the week, he had an opportunity to get a couple of easy wins and build some momentum for the later stages. Yesterday, he played on a very high level against Hubert Hurkacz. His serve was not cooperating in the first set, but he still managed to win it thanks to some exquisite ball striking from behind the baseline. But in the semifinals, his serve was the one bailing him out of some tough situations. He faced 7 break chances and he saved them all, mostly with a big first serve. It was very difficult to keep up with Edmund during the rallies, because of his powerful forehand. But Taylor moved so well, playing quality defense and forced couple of extra shots from Edmund that sailed long/wide. That's something that he's been doing well this entire tournament.
It's an all-American final with Sam Querrey standing on the other side of the net. It's pretty crazy that he got into the finals immediately after coming back from injury, which kept him off the court for the previous 2 months. But that just shows how comfortable he feels on this surface and how dangerous he can be here. In semifinals, he was a massive favorite over Thomas Fabbiano, who actually turned out to be a very tricky opponent. Italian was hitting the ball extremely well from the back of the court. He was consistent with it and managed to steal the second set from big-serving American. But in the end, he simply couldn't deal with all that power and Sam's ability to keep service games clean. Querrey faced only 2 break points and saved both. Oh, and he had 33 aces in this one. This will be his 4th grass court finals and an opportunity to win his 2nd title on this surface.
They should be pretty familiar with each others game, having played 4 times previously. H2H record is 2-2 at the moment, with all the matches played on faster hard courts. In the current form, we can probably expect another close match. But from what I've seen this week, Querrey does have a small edge in some areas. He's obviously a better server, while Fritz had to really step up in some moments to bail himself out of difficult situations in last two matches. Especially his second serve can be vulnerable at times, because he doesn't hit it with confidence. Under pressure, he tends to just roll it in and that is very dangerous against a heavy-hitting guy like Sam that can lean into that 2nd serve and put him under a lot of pressure.
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Betting odds & prediction
It's true that Fritz did beat both Hurkacz and Edmund who both have the power to spare. But their style is more to hit it big through the court and not really try to construct the point and set up the kill shot. Querrey is much better at working the angles, opening up the court and then going for the winner. And that is where I think he could break Fritz's resistance, who had some issues recovering into the middle of the court when being sent out wide. The line opened with Querrey being favored -120, which is not that inaccurate in my opinion but it still holds some value.
Tony's Pick: Sam Querrey -120
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