Kyle Edmund vs Diego Schwartzman Picks, Predictions ATP Paris Odds 10/30/2019
Kyle Edmund vs Diego Schwartzman
11 am EST, 30th October 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
Kyle Edmund entered this tournament with 8 losses in a row. He hasn't won since 1st round of Montreal when he defeated Nick Kyrgios. That was almost 3 months ago from now! He touched rock bottom earlier this month in Antwerp, where he was defending the title from last year. He failed to defend any of those points by losing in 1st round of qualifying against Norbert Gombos. 116th player in the world.
I watched his match in Vienna last week when he lost to Matteo Berrettini. He played well and forced the Italian player to raise the level of his game, after dropping the first set. As one of the best players in the world, Berrettini managed to do that and turn the match around, but against somebody that is ranked lower, Edmund would probably win. And he confirmed that in his 1st round match yesterday with another solid performance because Berankis was nowhere near to upset him. Edmund was very comfortable in these conditions. He had enough time to get his feet set and rip that forehand. I was not surprised by that, considering that conditions are quite similar to those in Vienna, where he looked pretty good last week.
Edmund looked good in Vienna, but Schwartzman looked even better. The Argentine fought his way into the finals, where he ultimately had to surrender to Dominic Thiem and a huge crowd that supported him loudly throughout the tournament. Diego did have his moments though. He won the first set and was on the brink of breaking Thiem's resistance in the 6th game of 2nd set when he failed to convert the breakpoint. Austrian survived and punished him for the missed opportunity.
This will be an important match for Schwartzman. With finals in Vienna, he kept his hopes alive for ATP Finals in London. He is currently in 14th place with 500 points behind Berrettini. Meaning the chances are not big, but I'm sure he'll try his best to get in there.
These two know each other pretty well because they played against each other 4 times already. They've split it to two each. Schwartzman winning the last one this year in Monte Carlo, with Edmund holding the edge on hard courts (2-1). One of those matches is quite interesting. Last year, they played in Vienna, where Edmund won in straight sets. As I already mentioned, the playing conditions there are similar to those in Paris.
But, at that point last year, they were not playing in the same forms as now. Edmund was the one winning the titles and getting deep runs, while the tables have turned this year. Even though I think Edmund is improving, Schwartzman should still be too big of a challenge for him. The Argentine defends on a very high level from the back of the court. And in such slow conditions, Edmund would really have to be on top of his game to beat him. I doubt he's there at the moment, considering that he just ended an 8-match losing streak yesterday.
Betting odds & prediction
The line opened Schwartzman -150 and got bet up to -167. Players that had deep runs the previous week are getting downgraded by the oddsmakers lately. People like the "fatigue angle" and that is why the books are protecting themselves a little bit. If not for that, Schwartzman would be a bigger favorite in this match, based on their forms and the matchup in these playing conditions. I am not worried about Schwartzman being fatigued and not trying hard enough in this tournament. That is why I see some nice value with the favorite covering in this spot.
Pick: Diego Schwartzman -2.5 (-106)
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