Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira Pick, 09/13/2025 Predictions UFC Noche 3 Odds
Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira
UFC Noche 3
Frost Bank Center in San Antonio
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Alexander Hernandez will take on Diego Ferreira at UFC Noche 3 on Saturday, September 13, 2025. The line has Hernandez coming in at -140 while Ferreira is at +120.
Alexander "The Great Ape" Hernandez will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 17-8-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Diego Ferreira stands 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-6-0. The 40-year-old has a reach of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Alexander Hernandez is connecting on 4.36 per min while Diego Ferreira connects on 4.82 significant strikes per min. Hernandez lands 40% of the significant strikes he throws while Ferreira is connecting on 40%. When it comes to defending themselves, "The Great Ape" takes 4.60 significant strikes per minute and Ferreira absorbs 3.46. Hernandez also prevents 58% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Ferreira thwarts 55% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Noche 3 | Alexander Hernandez | Diego Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -140 | +120 |
| Record | 17-8-0 | 19-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:10 | 9:46 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 72" | 74" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.36 | 4.82 |
| Striking Accuracy | 40% | 40% |
Regarding takedowns, Alexander Hernandez is the more capable grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.20 times per 15 min. Hernandez is getting his opponent to the mat on 36% of the times he tries and thwarting 73% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Ferreira is taking his opponents to the mat on 30% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 57% of the attempts against him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Hernandez is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.1 subs per 3 rds while Ferreira looks to get 0.6 subs per 15 minutes.
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In his last bout, Alexander Hernandez squared up with Chase Hooper and ended up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. Hooper ended up landing 20 of 82 total strikes attempted in that fight. Hernandez ended the night having landed 18 of 39 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Hooper landed 20 of 82, which gave him a percentage of 24%. He ended up landing 7 of 62 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Hernandez ended up landing 44% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 17 of 38. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 14 of 35 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Hooper and 76% of them connected on by Hernandez were done at a distance.
In the last fight for Diego Ferreira, he went up against Grant Dawson and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Dawson connected on 33% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Ferreira connected on 75% of his significant strikes at distance. Ferreira connected on 67% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 41 of 61. He landed 31 of 48 significant strikes to the head. Dawson ended up landing 56 of 98 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 51 of 91 to the head. Regarding the total strikes thrown in this fight, Dawson ended up connecting on 195 of 269 while Ferreira ended up landing 84 of 113 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights to keep an eye on
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jose Medina opposes Dusko Todorovic. Medina steps into the Octagon holding a record of 11-5-0. The 34-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Todorovic comes in at 6'1" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 12-6-0. The 31-year-old stretches 74". Regarding grappling, Jose Medina gets his opposition to the mat 0.45 times per 3 rds and Dusko Todorovic gets a takedown 1.50 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Medina lands an average of 2.18 strikes per minute and lands 36% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Dusko Todorovic, who connects on 57% of the strikes he has thrown and lands an average of 4.79 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Joaquim Silva is set to battle Claudio Puelles. Puelles holds a record of 13-4-0. The 29-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 72". Silva stands in at 5'8" and weighs 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 13-6-0. The 36-year-old reaches 69". In the category of takedowns, Claudio Puelles is able to defend against 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents down on 36% of his attempts. Silva is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of the tries he takes and is able to deflect 69% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Puelles takes 2.78 strikes/minute and he dishes out 1.56 strikes per minute. Silva, on the other hand, absorbs 4.53 strikes/min and dishes out 3.66 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Alexander Hernandez (-140)
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