Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon Pick, 09/13/2025 Predictions UFC Noche 3 Odds

Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon

UFC Noche 3

Frost Bank Center in San Antonio

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Rafa Garcia will face off with Jared Gordon at UFC Noche 3 on Saturday, September 13, 2025. The opening moneyline has Garcia at +205 while Gordon is priced at -240.

Rafa "Gifted" Garcia holds a career record of 17-4-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 70". Jared "Flash" Gordon measures 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 21-7-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old reaches 68". Concerning significant strikes, Rafa Garcia is connecting on 4.01 per min and Jared Gordon connects on 5.67 significant strikes per minute. Garcia is landing 43% of the significant strikes he throws and Gordon is connecting on 55%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Gifted" allows 4.47 significant strikes per minute while "Flash" allows 3.91. Garcia also thwarts 60% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Gordon is able to thwart 56% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Regarding wrestling, Rafa Garcia is the more efficient grappler as he is able to score a takedown 3.21 times per 3 rounds. Garcia is getting his opponent to the mat on 43% of the times he tries and is defending 77% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Gordon is finishing his takedown tries on 32% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 62% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding submissions, Garcia is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by trying 0.2 submissions per 3 rds while Gordon tries 0.5 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last fight, Rafa Garcia faced Vinc Pichel and wound up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Pichel landed 88 of 191 total strikes that he let go. Garcia finished this fight landing 76 of 136 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Pichel ended up landing 79 of 182, which means his percentage was 43%. He landed 32 of 116 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Garcia landed 53% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 64 of 120. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 49 of 102 to the head. 93% of the significant strikes landed by Pichel and 92% of them landed by Garcia were thrown at distance.

In the last fight for Jared Gordon, he went up against Thiago Moises and got a win for the night via a punch to the head in round 1. Moises ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Gordon connected on 71% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gordon ended up landing 53% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 7 of 13. He landed 5 of 10 significant strikes directed at the head. Moises ended up connecting on 5 of 9 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 3 of 6 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Moises was 11 of 16 and Gordon was 21 of 36 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Kelvin Gastelum meets Dustin Stoltzfus. Gastelum walks into the Octagon with a mark of 20-10-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 5'9". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 71". Stoltzfus stands in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 16-7-0. The 33-year-old stretches 75". In terms of takedowns, Kelvin Gastelum takes his opponents to the canvas 1.05 times per 3 rds while Dustin Stoltzfus takes his opponents to the mat 2.26 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Gastelum connects on 3.67 strikes/minute and is connecting on 42% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Dustin Stoltzfus, who lands 45% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 3.14 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Diego Ferreira is set to face off with Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 17-8-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Ferreira stands 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-6-0. The 40-year-old has a reach of 74". In terms of wrestling, Alexander Hernandez is able to curb 73% of the takedowns his opponents try and is getting his opponent to the mat on 36% of his attempts. Ferreira is taking his opponents down on 30% of the tries he takes and curbs 57% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Hernandez absorbs 4.60 strikes/minute while he connects on 4.36 strikes per minute. Ferreira, at the same time, absorbs 3.46 strikes/min and deals 4.82 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Rafa Garcia (+205)

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