MLB Handicapping: Looking for a Dog
by Allen Eastman - 04/04/2007
I wont do it. I can't do it. Even if it looks like the "Game of the Year," you wont see me laying anymore than -150 for a baseball favorite. It's money in the bank, right?
There are too many things that can happen in the course of a nine-inning game. I've seen it way too many times. Johan Santana or Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy. They're installed as a huge favorite. They pitch 6 or 7 strong inning. They leave after the 6th or 7th inning with a lead. Then they turn it over to the bullpen. Some nights the "bullie" slams the door shut and you get the win despite laying the heavy number.
But so many things are out of your hand when it comes to betting baseball. Your -200 favorite might get into an unexpected pitchers duel. And you lose 2-1 or 3-2. It's now going to take you two more victories to break even thanks to that huge loss. Keep this in mind before you jump all over that next "can't lose" -200 favorite.
My theory is simple. Limit your wagers on the dogs or small favorites. From there, sound money management SHOULD insure a winning baseball season. And I can't stress enough-baseball, unlike any other sport I handicap is truly a marathon and not a sprint. Lets keep your bankroll solid so we can really make some serious money come football season.
Take a look at my page and learn a little more about me. I offer daily free selections and preview all the big games from the NBA, MLB and the NHL.
Best of Luck. Allen Eastman